# Market Party Ending? Google Falls, BOJ, Picks & Shovels ETF
**Date:** 2026-06-23  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQj8ZAPyghs)

## Main Thesis
The market may be nearing the end of its current 'party,' as indicated by stress in the Japanese Yen carry trade, a significant drop in Google's stock, and a potential rotation from mega-cap tech leaders to the 'picks and shovels' of the industry like hardware and memory ETFs.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Currency related to Bank of Japan (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 160

Atkinson describes this as the 'world's biggest hedge' and a chart that traders may not be paying enough attention to. He notes that a recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan has done nothing to stem the currency's move at the 'all important 160 level,' which brings up questions for the carry trade.

### 2. Google (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Atkinson reports that Google's stock 'fell almost 6%' after losing a couple of key members. This event is presented as a potential sign that the market 'party' could be nearing an end.

### 3. Picks and Shovels ETF (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

A 'picks and shovels ETF' is introduced as a key topic. It is presented as part of a group of 'check receivers' (like hardware and memory) that are performing strongly, in contrast to the 'check writers' like the Magnificent Seven, indicating a market divergence.

### 4. DRAM ETF (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

The DRAM ETF is mentioned as an example of a 'check receiver' that, along with memory and hardware, is 'still going very strong'. This highlights a divergence between the suppliers to the tech boom and the mega-cap leaders.

### 5. Palantir (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Palantir is mentioned by name as a topic that will be discussed in the video, but no specific analysis is provided in the transcript.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The main macro theme discussed is a divergence in the market between the 'Magnificent Seven stocks, basically the check writers' and the 'check receivers' such as the 'DRAM ETF and memory and hardware'. This suggests a potential rotation or shift in market leadership. Additionally, the stability of the carry trade is questioned in light of the Bank of Japan's recent rate hike and its currency's position at the 160 level.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The currency related to the Bank of Japan at the 160 level is a critical chart to watch, as it pertains to the 'world's biggest hedge' and the carry trade.
- Google's nearly 6% fall is a potential warning sign that the 'market party' may be ending.
- A major divergence is occurring between the Magnificent Seven and the 'picks and shovels' of the market (hardware, memory ETFs), which are still performing strongly.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Currency related to Bank of Japan, Google, Picks and Shovels ETF, Magnificent Seven stocks, DRAM ETF, Palantir

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-29 12:09:24*