# This Is Not Normal… [SP500, Nasdaq]
**Date:** 2026-06-23  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0szBBplN-rk)

## Main Thesis
While the market's price action remains in a technical uptrend, there are significant underlying warning signs, including record-breaking dark pool transactions in major ETFs, a divergence between underperforming Mag 7 stocks and strong 'picks and shovels' hardware stocks, and growing pressure on the Japanese carry trade, all suggesting a need for heightened risk management.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Google (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** New low
**Historical Comparison:** Was a favorite stock in 2025.

The stock fell almost 6% after the departure of several key members from DeepMind, highlighting the AI trade's sensitivity to sentiment. Atkinson notes this fall may have been flagged by previous large volume trades and that the stock has made a new low.

### 2. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Post-IPO volatility
**Key Levels:** around the levels that we saw during the list time
**Historical Comparison:** Compares its post-IPO action to other hype IPOs that come in strong then see volatility set in.

SpaceX received massive cluster trades, including a $9 billion cluster and the #1 largest trade. Since then, it has dropped back to around its IPO levels. Atkinson expects it to be a stock to watch for continued volatility.

### 3. Palantir (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Major support break
**Key Levels:** under $100 potential target
**Historical Comparison:** Was the 'hype of 2025'.

After another massive transaction, Palantir has lost a major level of support with its recent closure. Atkinson notes the potential for the stock to move down to levels even under $100.

### 4. SPY (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Massive transactions near the top
**Historical Comparison:** The #1 largest dark pool trade of all time (going back to 2004) and the #4 largest both occurred recently near the highs.

Atkinson highlights that the SPY has seen the #1 and #4 largest dark pool trades of all time recently. This is occurring at the same time as the most leverage ever in the system and high retail participation, signaling a time to consider risk management.

### 5. QQQ (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Massive transaction

The QQQ recently saw its #2 largest trade ever during a massive OPEX. Atkinson speculates this could be funds moving to more liquid ETFs, which could signal future volatility. He also notes the Qs have been making +/- 1% moves on average for the last 10 days, which is rare and shows volatility is present.

### 6. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Potential capitulation at support
**Key Levels:** key level of demand

After being horrible for six months, Gold has come down to a key level of demand, potentially hitting capitulation levels. It found rejection at the 20 daily moving average and is still in a downtrend ('freight train'). Atkinson wouldn't be surprised to see a lower low before a real recovery.

### 7. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Downtrend ('freight train down')
**Key Levels:** level of demand
**Historical Comparison:** Notes it was previously linked with software, but that broke, and now it seems to be moving in unison with gold.

Bitcoin ETF flows have been 'shocking' and negative. It has returned to a level of demand and taken out the low, but it is struggling. Atkinson states that to stop a downtrend takes structure and time.

### 8. VIX (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Seasonality suggests a future spike
**Historical Comparison:** Compares the current calm to the general average monthly VIX in midterm election years, which typically spikes from earnings into October.

The VIX is in a seasonal calm period, the 'calm before the storm'. Atkinson discusses the seasonality for midterm election years, which suggests a spike in volatility is coming through the earnings season into the October period.

### 9. Magnificent Seven vs S&P 493 (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Divergence / Mag 7 underperformance
**Historical Comparison:** The divergence started around the time of the first Fed rate cut in 2025.

There is a clear divergence where the Magnificent Seven, once the market leader, is now underperforming the rest of the market (the 493 stocks). Over the last month, the Mag 7 is down 9% while the 'X Mag' is up 3.5%. The market is questioning the heavy spending of these companies.

### 10. Semiconductors vs SPY (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Series of higher highs and higher lows

The 'picks and the shovels' (semiconductors) are still outperforming the broader market, making higher highs and higher lows. Atkinson calls this the 'hardware cycle backbone' and says it's what tends to matter for markets right now.

### 11. Nasdaq Futures (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Filled previous high and sold off
**Key Levels:** 29,200

The Nasdaq futures went to the previous high made on Tuesday, filled that area, and then sold off. Key levels to watch are last week's low and the 29,200 level. The 2-hour 50 exponential moving average has stopped working as support.

### 12. S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Declining breadth

Breadth in the S&P 500 was declining over the last 24 hours. This occurred as the index filled a gap but failed to make a new high, all while massive transactions are taking place.

### 13. Russell 2000 (IWM) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** New higher high, relative strength

The Russell 2000 just made a new higher high. IWM has been outperforming SPY over the last couple of months, showing a broadening pattern in the market. Rebalancing for the Russell is also coming up.

### 14. S&P 500 Futures (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Testing key options levels
**Key Levels:** 7360, 7400 zone, 7400 major put level, 7450

The market is dropping back down towards key levels like 7360 and the 7400 zone. The options market shows 7400 is a major put level, and a break below could push the market into negative gamma.

### 15. QQQ (Options) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Options positioning
**Key Levels:** 740 spot price, 720 put level

With the spot price around 740, there are not many puts until around the 720 level, which lines up with previous support. This suggests the Nasdaq still has relative strength.

### 16. US Treasuries (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Series of lower highs and lower lows

The Treasuries market has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Atkinson warns that if the carry trade unwinds, it could cause 'real pain' in this market.

### 17. USD/JPY (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breakout
**Key Levels:** 160 area

The 'all-important' 160 level has been breached, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan. A rate hike last week did nothing to stop the ascent, suggesting policy is not restrictive enough and further intervention may be needed.

### 18. Japanese 1-Year Yield (JP01Y) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Gapped up

The weekly chart for the Japanese 1-year yield gapped up, suggesting the market is anticipating another rate hike from the Bank of Japan.

### 19. US Dollar (DXY) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Double bottom, Wyckoff accumulation base, breakout closure
**Key Levels:** 104 potential next level

The dollar is breaking up after being trapped for about a year. It formed a double bottom and a potential Wyckoff accumulation base, with a big weekly breakout closure. The next potential level of equilibrium is 104.

### 20. EUR/USD (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Head and shoulders pattern

The strengthening US dollar is putting extreme pressure on what many would say is a head and shoulders pattern forming on the EUR/USD chart.

### 21. Emerging Markets (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Huge breakout, making higher highs and higher lows
**Historical Comparison:** Compares the current breakout to major highs in 2007 and 2021.

Emerging markets remain strong, making higher highs and higher lows. Atkinson notes this is a huge breakout when looking back at prior highs from 2007 and 2021.

### 22. Energy Stocks (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Found support
**Key Levels:** weekly lows previously found in April

Energy stocks have found some support at the weekly lows from April, diverging from the price of oil barrels which continue to look weak.

### 23. Oil (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Series of lower highs and lower lows, 'freight train'
**Key Levels:** 87

Oil does not look strong and is continuing its downtrend. Atkinson calls it a 'freight train' that will take structure to stop. He notes that since losing the 87 level, the market has been moving down.

### 24. Copper (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Trapped zone, upward trend

Copper is seeing weekly rejections from the highs and is in a trapped zone. However, it is still technically in an upward trend on higher time frames.

### 25. Silver (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Rejection off 20 daily moving average
**Key Levels:** major level of previous support

Silver is putting pressure on a major level of previous support. It rallied to the 20 daily moving average, where it was rejected. Atkinson would not be surprised to see a lower low.

### 26. Gold Stocks (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Holding better than gold

Gold stocks are holding up a little better than physical gold. They are making 'bumper profits' and benefit from lower oil prices.

### 27. Cosby (KOSPI) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Selling off

Atkinson notes that with a 'picks and shovels' ETF coming out, the KOSPI is selling off 5% in today's action, showing volatility in the hardware space.

### 28. SanDisk (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Series of high highs, higher lows

Atkinson mentions SanDisk as an example of an important stock where the trend of higher highs and higher lows remains intact.

### 29. Tesla (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Not much movement

Despite many rumors, there has not been much movement in the stock yet. Atkinson is waiting for options flow to report on it further.

### 30. VTV (Value) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Doing pretty well

Value stocks are mentioned as part of the broader market that is performing well, alongside the Russell 2000 and emerging markets.

### 31. CSI 300 (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Making a higher high

The Chinese CSI 300 index is actually forming a higher high, showing strength within that market, in contrast to the Hang Seng which is struggling.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The main regime discussed is a significant divergence between the 'check writers' (Magnificent Seven) and the 'check receivers' (semiconductors, hardware). The Mag 7 are underperforming as the market questions their massive spending, while the hardware 'picks and shovels' trade remains the strong backbone of the market. Another key macro theme is the pressure on the Japanese carry trade, with a strengthening USD and rising Japanese yields threatening to cause an unwind that could negatively impact global assets, particularly US Treasuries. Seasonally, the market is in a 'calm before the storm' period, with midterm year history pointing to a volatility spike from July through October.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- It's certainly time for us to consider the risk management due to massive dark pool flows, high leverage, and retail participation.
- A breakdown below 7400 on S&P 500 futures could trigger negative gamma and accelerate selling.
- The unwind of the Japanese carry trade could cause 'real pain' in the US Treasuries market.
- If credit default swaps on Magnificent Seven debt blow out, it will be a 'huge storyline' and a major problem for the market.
- The hardware/semiconductor cycle remains the key bullish backbone of the market; its health is critical.
- Hindenburg Omen clusters are triggering, which is a warning sign to pay attention to potential weakness.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Google, SpaceX, Palantir, SPY, QQQ, Gold, Bitcoin, VIX, Magnificent Seven, S&P 493, Semiconductors, Nasdaq Futures, S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line, Russell 2000, IWM, S&P 500 Futures, US Treasuries, USD/JPY, Japanese 1-Year Yield (JP01Y), US Dollar, EUR/USD, Emerging Markets, Energy Stocks, Oil, Copper, Silver, Gold Stocks, Cosby (KOSPI), SanDisk, Tesla, VTV, CSI 300, Hang Seng, MSTR

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-29 12:10:41*