# Smart Money Is Doing It Again? [Sp500, Nasdaq]
**Date:** 2026-06-24  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijBQp104DkE)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing a significant, concentrated sell-off in over-leveraged semiconductor and hardware stocks, which are now testing key 20-moving average support levels. This rotation into defensive sectors, combined with a strengthening US dollar, suggests increased volatility and a potential trap being set by Wall Street, though it is not yet a broad-based systemic failure.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Semiconductors vs SPY (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 20-moving average
**Historical Comparison:** a sell-off in semiconductors at around that kind of August period to October period last year.

Atkinson notes that the hardware phase of the AI bubble is intact as long as the ratio of semiconductors to the SPY continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows. He points out that this ratio is now approaching the 20-moving average, which he identifies as an important level to watch to see if the bullish trend will hold.

### 2. US 30 (Dow Jones) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Atkinson mentions that Google was added to the Dow Jones and Verizon was removed. He observes that there was "no movement in general" and that the sell-off is not broad-based.

### 3. IWM/SPY (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

He points out that small caps (IWM) are again outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY). He views this trend, which has been in place since September-October of the previous year, as a potential sign that the market is in a late cycle rather than the beginning of a long-term bull run.

### 4. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 6,900 support, 7,200 support, 7,300 support

Atkinson notes a "nasty-looking candle" on the S&P 500 where the market rallied and then dropped, leaving a gap. He discusses a potential head and shoulders pattern but is skeptical of its target around 6,900, which he doesn't see as a major support. He states the market has not yet reached more significant put-heavy support levels like 7,200 or 7,300.

### 5. S&P 500 Futures (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 7,250 support

Looking at the futures market, Atkinson notes that a small level of support has held. He warns that if the recent wicks are taken out with a new lower low and close, the next level of equilibrium could be around the 7,250 area.

### 6. S&P 500 Options (next 24-48 hours)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 7,200 support, 7,300 support, 7,400 support

In the options market, 7,200 is the most struck put zone across all expirations. For the next 24-48 hours, he highlights a lot of puts sitting around 7,300, which aligns with previous market structure and could act as an equilibrium support level if the market falls further.

### 7. QQQ (Qs) Options (next 24-48 hours)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 700 support

Atkinson states that 700 is the number one strike for puts on the Qs across expirations, including the next 24-48 hours. He considers this a very important level and warns that a drop below it could lead to a "waterfall style effect". The market was trading around 713 at the time of recording.

### 8. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 150 support

He is now including SpaceX because its options are heating up. The price has returned to its IPO launch price around 150, which he identifies as a key level with put interest.

### 9. IBIT (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 35 support

For Bitcoin's largest ETF, he identifies 35 as an important level. With the price trading just above it, he sees this as a critical inflection point for Bitcoin.

### 10. GLD Options (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 360 support

Analysis of GLD options shows a significant put level around 360. This suggests to Atkinson that gold might fall further, especially given the strengthening US dollar.

### 11. EUR/USD (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 1.08 target

Atkinson spots a potential head and shoulders pattern on the EUR/USD chart. He suggests that a close through the neckline could lead to a move down to 1.08, reflecting a preference for a stronger dollar.

### 12. US Dollar Index (DXY) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff bottom, double bottom
**Key Levels:** 104 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to the '06 period or the dot com boom

The DXY is showing strength and attempting to close above a key area on the weekly chart. Atkinson sees a potential Wyckoff bottom and notes a prior double bottom, targeting the next equilibrium level at 104. He compares the move to the dot-com boom era due to high demand for US stocks.

### 13. XLY (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

He notes that consumer discretionary (XLY) is starting to struggle, which he connects to the "K-wave" economy and suggests that the high-end consumer may be coming under pressure.

### 14. XLY/XLP (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** starting to fall again
**Key Levels:** 1.29 support

This risk-on/risk-off ratio is falling again. Atkinson warns that a loss of the 1.29 area could signal a significant decline in US market sentiment.

### 15. Emerging Markets (EEM) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

Despite a large one-day drop, Atkinson notes that emerging markets remain in a bullish trend, with the structure of higher highs and higher lows still intact.

### 16. US Oil (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

He states there is not yet enough market structure to stop the current move, which he describes as a "freight train." He is waiting for more structure to form.

### 17. Energy Stocks (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** first level of key support

Unlike crude oil, energy stocks have reached and bounced from a first level of key support, and he is watching them closely.

### 18. Copper (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double horror rejections, potential double top
**Key Levels:** 586 support

Dr. Copper is showing weakness with "double horror rejections" and a potential double top, a negative sign for the economy. He identifies 586 as a key level to watch, below which would signal real weakness.

### 19. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** daily 200 moving average

Gold is falling and has hit the daily 20 moving average. He notes it's at a level where the downtrend could potentially be stopped, but emphasizes that it is trading below the daily 200 moving average, which he, citing Paul Tudor Jones, considers a very negative signal.

### 20. Silver (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** pressing in new lows

Silver is making new lows and, like gold, is trading below its 200-day moving average, which is a bearish sign. He notes it takes a lot of structure to stop a "freight train" move.

### 21. Gold Stocks (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** drop base drop
**Key Levels:** supply level

Gold stocks rallied back to a supply level that was created by a "drop base drop" pattern. He is watching this key level.

### 22. Kospi (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average daily

The Kospi experienced its largest one-day points drop ever but found support at the daily 20-moving average and is attempting to hold that level.

### 23. SanDisk (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** Daily 20 moving average

As a key hardware stock, SanDisk remains in an uptrend of higher highs and lows. It has not yet reached its daily 20-moving average, which is a key support level he is watching.

### 24. Micron (MU) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average

After falling 13%, Micron is another hardware stock whose trend is being tested. The trend of higher highs and lows is still intact, but he is watching the 20-moving average to see if it holds as support.

### 25. Value/Mid-caps/Small-caps (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

In contrast to tech, the "boring" parts of the market like value, mid-caps, and small-caps are performing well. They remain in a series of higher highs and lows, suggesting the current sell-off is not systemic.

### 26. CSI 300 (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend

The Chinese market closed above a new high and remains in an upward trend, indicating that not all markets are experiencing weakness.

### 27. Nasdaq (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 29500 support, 28,440 support

The Nasdaq gapped down but held a mini-support at 29,500 (transcribed as "29 5"). He warns that if this support breaks, the next level down is around 28,440.

### 28. QQQ (Qs) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 700 support

He reiterates that 700 is a very important support level for the Qs. A drop to this level could coincide with tests of the 20-moving average on key hardware stocks, making it a critical zone to observe.

### 29. Bitcoin (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** Daily 20 moving average

Bitcoin's structure hasn't changed much, as it's hovering in the same zone. It has respected the daily 20-moving average on four recent occasions, so that level could be a sign of potential recovery. However, he notes the downtrend is a "freight train" that lacks bullish structure.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a rotational phase, with Wall Street moving defensively out of hardware and semiconductors and into food, staples, and healthcare. This is not yet a systemic, broad-based sell-off, as value, small caps, and the Chinese market show intact uptrends. The outperformance of small caps versus the S&P 500 (IWM/SPY) is cited as a potential sign of a 'late cycle' market. A strengthening US dollar is creating a headwind for assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. A key theme is the 'disturbing' rise of triple-levered ETFs, which has amplified retail leverage and risk, particularly in the semiconductor sector.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch the 20-moving average on hardware stocks (like SanDisk, Micron) and semiconductors; this level has so far held the bullish trend and is being tested.
- A drop below the 700 level on the Qs is a major risk and could lead to a 'waterfall style effect'.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is bullish and targeting 104, which will likely put further pressure on commodities and crypto.
- The current sell-off is concentrated in tech/hardware and is not yet a systemic, broad-based market failure.
- The rotation into defensive sectors (staples, healthcare) is a key development; if it persists for 3-5 days, it could signal a real change in market character.
- The rapid growth of triple-levered ETFs represents a new risk of excessive retail leverage in the market, particularly in chasing the semiconductor trend.

## All Instruments Mentioned
MU, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Google, Verizon, Semiconductors, US 30, IWM, S&P 500 Futures, SpaceX, IBIT, GLD, EUR/USD, US Dollar Index (DXY), XLY, XLP, Emerging Markets (EEM), US Oil, Energy Stocks, Copper, Gold, Silver, Gold Stocks, Kospi, SanDisk, CSI 300, Nasdaq, QQQ (Qs), Bitcoin, Apple, Tesla

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-29 12:08:54*