# Wall Street Just Saved The Market?
**Date:** 2026-06-25  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=di5yeMDcVkg)

## Main Thesis
The market, particularly the semiconductor sector, was saved from a technical breakdown at the daily 20 moving average by stellar Micron earnings. However, underlying signals like record-breaking transaction volumes, a strengthening dollar, and weakness in gold suggest a precarious, choppy, and rotational market that could be undergoing distribution.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Semiconductors (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounce off moving average
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average support

Semiconductors experienced the number one largest transaction ever, fell to the daily 20 moving average for a third time, and then bounced thanks to Micron's earnings. The key question is whether this bounce will be sustained and lead to a higher high. A loss of the daily 20 moving average would be a significant warning sign.

### 2. S&P 500 Seasonality (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** A 'June swoon' often leads to a midyear rally into earnings.

Atkinson references two seasonality observations. First, that June is not typically a month where markets top. Second, a chart showing that a 'June swoon' often leads into a midyear rally, which aligns with the upcoming earnings season.

### 3. Hindenburg Omen (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** clusters

Clusters of Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared. Historically, this doesn't mean a super bearish market but often leads to choppy, 50/50 coin-flip conditions, described as a 'traders market or a rotators market'.

### 4. Bitcoin Flows (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** outflows
**Historical Comparison:** Similar to gold flows.

Bitcoin ETF flows are getting 'thrashed', with significant and numerous outflows over the last several sessions, according to data from Farside Investors. This is happening in a similar fashion to gold.

### 5. MAG 7 vs SPX 493 (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence

A divergence is occurring where the MAG 7 stocks are falling while the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 remain stable. This is seen as a problem, indicating Wall Street may be recognizing issues with the concentration of capital spending in AI.

### 6. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** island reversal, head and shoulders, two dogeis
**Key Levels:** 705 resistance, 700 support

The QQQ reached about 705 and has not looked strong, forming what could be an island reversal or a head and shoulders pattern. The presence of two dogei candles indicates indecision and equilibrium. The number one largest transaction ever occurred on the QQQ within this tight range, raising questions about potential distribution.

### 7. Dow Jones (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding around its highs

The Dow has been holding its highs, indicating that it has not been a 'sell everything' market and that there is underlying strength or rotation elsewhere.

### 8. IWM to MAGS Ratio (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** relative strength breakout

The relative performance of the Russell 2000 (IWM) to the MAG 7 stocks is 'going ballistic'. This highlights the theme of rotation, where Wall Street is flowing into other areas of the market.

### 9. Russell 2000 (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** near all-time highs

The Russell 2000 itself is performing very well, having reached all-time highs, which demonstrates that there is strength and 'abundance' in other parts of the market outside the main leaders.

### 10. S&P 500 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dogeis, rejections
**Key Levels:** 7250

The S&P 500 is at a point of inflection, showing two recent instances of rallying and then dumping. While not at major support levels yet, it is struggling due to the drop in MAG 7 stocks. A potential level mentioned is 7250.

### 11. S&P 500 Futures (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** lower low then sharp reversal
**Key Levels:** 7600 resistance, 7250 support

The futures market made a lower low before being 'literally saved by the bell' by the Micron earnings news, causing a sharp recovery. The market is currently trapped in a range between approximately 7250 and 7600.

### 12. S&P 500 Options (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 7,300 put zone, 7200 heaviest put zone

Options data shows 7,300 is an important put zone, with 7200 being the heaviest strike in terms of puts. These levels act as significant support, and a loss of them could lead to a 'waterfall effect'.

### 13. QQQ Options (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 700 put strike, 705 put strike

The two major put strikes are at 700 and 705. Since the market tested 705, this options positioning suggests the QQQ might be trying to find support in this area.

### 14. SPCX (SpaceX) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling at support
**Key Levels:** 150 support, 155 support

SPCX continues to struggle around the 150-155 area, which is where it found its first bid price. This stabilization is likely due to a large amount of puts at this level. If it drops below this support, it could get 'brutal quickly'.

### 15. Gold Options (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 360 major put level

The major level of puts is around 360. For the market to reach this level, gold would have to make a new lower low, which could create 'serious liquidity style movements'.

### 16. IBIT (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 3387 current price

The current price is around 33.87, while significant put transactions are noted underneath this level as MSTR comes under pressure.

### 17. US Dollar (DXY) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff style accumulation bottom, breakout
**Key Levels:** 103.70 potential target, 104 potential target

Described as one of the more important charts of 2026, the US Dollar has broken out of what appears to be a Wyckoff-style accumulation bottom. It is making higher highs and higher lows and could potentially move towards the next equilibrium/supply zone around 103.70-104, which would pressure commodities.

### 18. Copper (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** two giant wick rejections

Copper has been struggling, creating two large wick rejections in recent weeks. It is currently weaker and being pressured by the strong dollar.

### 19. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower low
**Key Levels:** demand level from October last year

Gold made a lower low and continues to pressure a key demand level established in October of the previous year. The downtrend is strong, and Atkinson is watching for any signs of structure or a bid to 'stop the bleed'.

### 20. Silver (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Silver is suffering the same fate as gold but is noted to be more volatile because it has both economic and precious metal properties. Gold is considered the better signal for market structure.

### 21. Gold Stocks (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** freight train on the way down
**Key Levels:** at the low, previous supply

Gold stocks are at their lows, testing a previous supply area. There is currently no bid, and the chart is described as a 'freight train on the way down'.

### 22. XLY/XLP Ratio (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck in the middle

This ratio, representing the American consumer, is 'stuck in the middle' with not much movement recently.

### 23. Oil Stocks (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** support

In contrast to the price of crude oil, oil stocks are still holding a key support level.

### 24. Oil (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** freight train downs
**Key Levels:** 69 current price, 65 a barrel support

Oil is trading at $69 a barrel, down 42% from its peak, and is approaching a key level around $65. The trend is described as a 'freight train down' with no bottoming structure yet.

### 25. STRC (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** trading at a discount
**Key Levels:** $100 par value, $80 current price

This instrument, related to MicroStrategy, is supposed to be trading at $100 but is currently at $80. This discount is putting pressure on MSTR.

### 26. MSTR (MicroStrategy) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** new lower low, freight train
**Key Levels:** $530 high, $94 current price

MSTR has made a new lower low and is down significantly from its high of $530 to a current price of $94. It is a 'freight train' down with no structure, and its continued fall is a major concern for Bitcoin due to liquidation risk.

### 27. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** equal slightly lower low

Bitcoin itself has formed an 'equal slightly lower low', which could potentially be considered a form of bottoming structure. However, the market is still down, flows are negative, and the risk from MSTR's potential liquidation looms large.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a complex regime characterized by several key themes. There is a major rotation occurring, with money flowing out of the leadership MAG 7 stocks and into the broader market (the other 493 stocks and Russell 2000). This is happening alongside a macro theme of massive debt creation (capex, IPOs) to fund the AI buildout. Intermarket signals are showing divergence: the US Dollar is breaking out bullishly, which is putting significant pressure on commodities like Gold, Silver, and Copper. The clustering of record-large transactions in major indices suggests potential distribution by large players under the cover of a choppy, rotational market.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- JP Morgan has upgraded its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,800.
- The market was saved at a key technical level (daily 20 MA on semiconductors) by Micron's strong earnings.
- Record-breaking transaction volumes on QQQ and semiconductors within a tight range are a potential warning sign of distribution.
- The US Dollar breakout is a critical chart to watch, with continued strength likely to pressure commodities further.
- A failure of semiconductors to hold the daily 20 moving average would be a significant bearish signal for the market.
- The decline in MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a major concern for Bitcoin, as a potential liquidation could create a cascade/waterfall selling event.

## All Instruments Mentioned
S&P 500, JP Morgan, Micron, Biotechnology, DRAM, QQQ, SPY, Semiconductors, Hindenburg Omen, Gold, Bitcoin, MAG 7, Dow, IWM, Russell 2000, S&P 500 Futures, SPCX, IBIT, US Dollar, Copper, Silver, Gold Stocks, XLY, XLP, Oil Stocks, Oil, STRC, MSTR, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Staples

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-29 12:07:27*