# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Market Volatility Is Back... SP500, Nadaq, Gold, AI Analysis **Date:** 2026-06-29 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFmqkeETSeA) ## Main Thesis Market volatility has returned, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is a cause for concern and suggests a potential distribution phase. A rotation into defensive sectors like healthcare and biotech is underway, while the major indices appear trapped in a range, making it a 'selector's market' ahead of earnings season. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Semiconductors (General/Cosby) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson sees the recent, wild volatility in semiconductors as a dangerous sign and a cause for concern. He notes the sector has seen huge swings, like dropping 13% and rallying 12%. He points out that the sector is hitting its 20-weekly moving average, and the intraday volatility suggests the market is unsure. He believes this volatility suggests a market pit or sideways-to-down action coming into earnings. ### 2. SanDisk (WDC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Mentioned as part of the semiconductor sell-off. It rallied like MU last week and then fell. It has not yet reached the 20 moving average support level. ### 3. Micron (MU) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Despite reporting 'fantastic earnings', the stock still fell through, which Atkinson interprets as a sign that the market is not confident in future spending. ### 4. Magnificent 7 (None) **Bias:** BEARISH The group has fallen drastically and been underperforming. Atkinson notes that large dark pools came in to buy the dip, but most individual charts still look weak. ### 5. Apple (AAPL) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Atkinson states the chart 'doesn't really look that great, although it's recovering a little bit today'. ### 6. Amazon (AMZN) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Described as 'basically just a Fibonacci pullback'. ### 7. Google (GOOGL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH The stock has 'continued to make a series of lower lows and lower highs'. ### 8. Nvidia (NVDA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Described as 'not very good' and 'doesn't look very enticing either'. ### 9. Meta (META) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Described as 'not that enticing' and is making 'lower lows and lower highs'. ### 10. Microsoft (MSFT) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** bullish hammer Microsoft looks different from the other Mag 7 stocks. It undercut a previous low, came into a deep level of support, and found a bid with very large volume. The weekly chart shows a 'big bullish hammer', which he finds to be an interesting observation of buying coming in. ### 11. Software Sector (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Software has been beaten down while semiconductors were up. The sector found a bid late last week, similar to Microsoft. After a brutal pullback, he is watching to see if more large transactions come in, suggesting a potential bottoming process. ### 12. Healthcare (XLV) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** new all-time high Healthcare made a new all-time high closure. It has been the best performing major sector over the last month. Atkinson sees the strength in this defensive, late-cycle sector as a sign that we are 'later in the markets'. ### 13. Biotechnology (IBB) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Biotech had a very good week and has been the best overall sector in the last month. Similar to healthcare, he interprets its strength as a late-cycle signal that could precede a more significant sell-off. ### 14. Utilities (XLU) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Mentioned as one of the three major defensive sectors, it had a 'better performance last week'. ### 15. Consumer Staples (XLP) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Mentioned as a defensive sector that is currently 'sideways'. ### 16. Regional Banks (KRE) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Regional banks have been doing quite well. He suggests this is a sign of market resilience and that the current fear is more about AI than systemic risk. ### 17. JP Morgan (JPM) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The stock is 'not exactly looking horrendous' and is making 'higher highs, higher lows', which is a decent sign for market resilience. ### 18. NASDAQ (NDX) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** head and shoulders Atkinson notes that many are drawing a head and shoulders pattern, though he feels the right shoulder is 'very high'. He sees the index as trapped in a range and believes it's currently a 'traders market' with up and down movement. ### 19. S&P 500 (SPX) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** head and shoulders Similar to the NASDAQ, people are drawing head and shoulders patterns. He notes the market is trapped in a range, characterized by wick rejections. He believes the market might go sideways or down into earnings. ### 20. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 150 put support The stock is still holding the major put support at the 150 level. ### 21. Gold (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Gold still has no bid and is making lower lows below the daily 20 moving average. However, Atkinson is now 'very interested' because it has reached a 'decent zone' of previous support, and sentiment is extremely bearish with massive outflows, which is often a contrarian signal. ### 22. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 380 Mentioned briefly as having been 'pretty boring' but 'maybe got interesting because it hit 380'. ### 23. Silver (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Silver is still dropping in a series of lower lows and lower highs. He states it's 'not really there' at a good technical level yet and is 'in the middle of nowhere', likely to be led by gold. ### 24. Silver/Gold Ratio (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The ratio has returned to a 'middling point', where silver is neither super expensive nor super cheap relative to gold. He sees this as a good development, as it's now at a more 'fair value'. ### 25. Copper (monthly) **Bias:** BULLISH Copper needs to stabilize for gold to rally. It successfully bought off a monthly support area and is still making higher highs and higher lows on the higher timeframe, keeping its uptrend intact. ### 26. Agriculture (DBA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The agriculture sector 'found a random bid like a week ago' and is trying to stop its decline. He doesn't see a solid technical setup yet but is watching. ### 27. US Dollar Index (DXY) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout **Key Levels:** 104 The dollar is currently in a breakout, making a series of higher highs. Atkinson suggests it could go back to the key equilibrium level of 104. ### 28. USD/JPY (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The pair is being pressured higher by the strong dollar. He mentions the carry trade as a background risk that people are now ignoring, which makes him pay more attention to it. ### 29. Oil (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Oil is making a series of lower lows and lower highs. He warns traders against trying to 'buy the dip' in a downtrend, advocating instead to wait for a confirmed reversal or 'V-rip'. ### 30. Energy Sector (XLE) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL In contrast to the barrel of oil, the energy stocks ETF (XLE) has 'held up to the good support' and bounced. ### 31. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 60,000 support Bitcoin has held up relatively well by staying above 60,000, but it has not stopped the bleeding as it's still in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Flows have been 'shocking' with significant outflows. Similar to gold, he thinks this is an area worth watching due to the extreme bearishness. ### 32. Chinese Tech (KWEB) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** similar to pre-2021/22 crash The Chinese tech sector is 'really not doing well' and is getting 'thrashed', still down 80% from its peaks. He shows it as a cautionary tale of what can happen to a sector. ### 33. Qualcomm (QCOM) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** head and shoulders He highlights a 'perfect head and shoulders' pattern on the daily chart. While he is skeptical of textbook patterns, he notes the stock has already dumped 26% and is an example of the volatility in the semiconductor space. ### 34. Railroads (UNP) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout Railroad stocks 'look crazy' and are breaking to the upside from their 2022 highs. He notes they are historically one of the best long-term performing sectors and can be defensive during crashes. ### 35. QQQ (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL At the end of the stream, he notes that the QQQ hit a put support area last week and rallied off it. He reiterates his view that the market is likely stuck in a choppy range. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis Atkinson describes a late-cycle market regime characterized by a rotation out of market leaders (semiconductors) and into defensive sectors like healthcare and biotech. The extreme volatility in hardware stocks, coupled with strength in defensives, suggests a period of distribution or a 'pit'. He also highlights signs of extreme speculation and froth, such as the most popular ETF in Hong Kong being a 2x levered semiconductor fund, which he finds 'shocking' and warrants caution. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The return of high volatility in the leading semiconductor sector is a cause for concern and should be paid attention to. - The market is likely to be sideways to down heading into the upcoming earnings season. - It is currently a 'selector's market', where focusing on rotating sectors is more important than the overall index direction. - A warning about the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls data on Thursday, which could be a catalyst for the US Dollar. - A caution against 'buying the dip' in assets with strong downward momentum like Oil, advising to wait for a confirmed reversal ('V-rip'). - Gold and Bitcoin are at interesting levels worth watching for a potential bottom, due to extreme negative sentiment and outflows. ## All Instruments Mentioned SPX, NDX, Gold, Silver, Oil, Bitcoin, Cosby, SanDisk (WDC), MU, Magnificent 7, Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Software Sector, Healthcare (XLV), Biotechnology (IBB), Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Regional Banks (KRE), Adobe (ADBE), JP Morgan (JPM), SpaceX, Tesla (TSLA), Silver/Gold Ratio, Copper, Agriculture (DBA), DXY, USD/JPY, Energy Sector (XLE), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Chinese Tech (KWEB), Qualcomm (QCOM), South Korea ETF (EWY), Railroads (UNP), QQQ --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-29 12:03:21*