# Are We Seeing Signs Of The BUBBLE POP? **Date:** 2026-07-03 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moGXE2tGLeY) ## Main Thesis The market is experiencing a significant rotation out of over-extended semiconductors and hardware stocks, which may be signs of the AI bubble popping. While the broader indices are holding up due to strength in other sectors like software and healthcare, there are major liquidity concerns and risks of a systemic sell-off if key technical levels in semis break. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. SanDisk (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH A key hardware stock that has seen a huge sell-off, falling over 14% in the last 24 hours. This move took it all the way through its 20 weekly moving average, signaling significant weakness and raising questions about the AI bubble. ### 2. S&P 500 (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** long-legged doji The S&P 500 is forming a long-legged doji, indicating a market trapped in time and a large range with huge dark pool activity. The index is holding up despite semiconductor weakness due to rotation into other sectors like software, healthcare, and financials. One recent session was almost 0% but had massive intraday volatility, causing psychological damage. ### 3. QQQ (The Q's) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 700 puts The most popular NASDAQ ETF has seen the largest and fourth-largest dark pool transactions ever recorded recently. This suggests major institutional positioning. A break below the 700 put level is seen as a key danger zone that could trigger a negative gamma event. ### 4. SOXL (3x Levered Semiconductor ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH This popular leveraged ETF has seen massive transactions (number 1, 2, 5, and 6 largest) and has come down to a potential pressure level. The recent sell-off has been brutal, with the fund down 42.9% from its top, wiping out gains back to early May. This highlights the extreme risks of leveraged products and the potential for forced liquidations. ### 5. Semiconductors (SMH/SOXX) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 600 puts Semiconductors have fallen through a key low that was supported by previous dark pool activity. The sector is facing a real test, with a potential for a systemic sell-off if it can't recover. On the options front, the market fell through a huge put wall at 600 and is attempting a recovery back above it. ### 6. Micron (MU) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH Micron saw its number one, two, and three largest transactions occur after its massive move up, suggesting institutional selling. The stock has since lost its 20 daily moving average, indicating a shift in trend. ### 7. Gold (GLD) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** potential tweezer bottom After a period of very negative press (mentions of 'Death Cross', 'Worst quarter in 13 years'), Gold has come down to a potential support/demand level and is trying to find pressure. The weekly chart could be forming a tweezer pattern, which would be an early sign of support holding. A large #11 transaction was also noted in GLD. ### 8. Bitcoin (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Bitcoin has gone below its weekly chart support, with negative sentiment prevailing. However, whale wallets appear to be accumulating at this base. This is contrasted by very negative Bitcoin ETF flows. The price is now back at its first major decision point, testing the daily 20 moving average, where bears have previously been selling. ### 9. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** IPO-style volatility **Key Levels:** 150 puts The stock is exhibiting classic IPO-style volatility. It went down to 150, where major puts are located, recovered, and then sold off again. It is now at key 'tester points' to determine its next major directional move. ### 10. MAG vs X-MAG (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL This comparison shows that if you strip out semiconductors and hardware, the rest of the market hasn't been performing that badly, highlighting the rotational nature of the current environment. ### 11. Hardware Trade (as a chart) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown The chart of the hardware trade, which has been in a massive upward trend, is showing its first sign of weakness. It has broken through the 20 exponential moving average, a recent support level, and is now at the precipice of a very important level near the 50 EMA. ### 12. Tesla (TSLA) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Tesla has been quite volatile, rallying and then dropping through support, in line with the weakness seen in other hardware-related stocks. ### 13. Palantir (PLTR) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** Used as a cautionary tale for current volatile stocks. Atkinson uses Palantir's past price action as a historical analog. He notes that an initial bout of volatility was a warning sign, and a second one marked the top, after which the stock entered a long-term downward trend despite intermittent rallies. This serves as a warning for what could happen to the current market leaders. ### 14. NASDAQ (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** sideways consolidation **Key Levels:** 7500 calls, 7550 calls, 7600 calls, 7400 puts, 7300 puts Unlike the semiconductor sector, the broader NASDAQ has not broken its supports and has managed to hold within a sideways area. This resilience is attributed to strength in the MAG 7 and other tech sectors like cybersecurity. The options market shows a defined range with calls at 7500-7600 and puts at 7400-7300. ### 15. Cosby (transcription error) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH This instrument, likely a transcription error, just made a lower low. Atkinson suspects this could be a stop-loss hunt. It has fallen 20% and still has gaps to fill below, causing significant pain for traders. ### 16. IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 33 support, 34 support The IBIT Bitcoin ETF has been significantly pressuring the 33-34 level for some time and has seen a small recovery from that zone. ### 17. US Dollar (DXY) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows The US Dollar has generally been in an uptrend, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. It did weaken a bit after the non-farm payrolls numbers. ### 18. 2-Year Treasury Yield (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows The 2-year yield remains in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows. It did not move as much as expected following the NFP report. ### 19. Regional Banking (KRE) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH Regional banking stocks dropped during the session, falling 1.52%, showing weakness compared to other sectors. ### 20. Healthcare (XLV) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Healthcare is a sector seeing strong rotational inflows, described as having gone 'absolutely bonkers to the upside'. ### 21. Biotech (IBB/XBI) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Similar to healthcare, biotech is another area benefiting from rotation, described as going 'absolutely crazy'. ### 22. US Oil (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend Oil remains in a clear downward trend. Atkinson advises to 'buy the V, don't buy the dip,' meaning wait for a structural bottom to form. While it's getting closer to a level where it might find structure, it has not done so yet. ### 23. Software (IGV) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH Software has been one of the better-performing sectors recently. It is seen as an 'ante to semiconductors,' meaning it tends to perform well when semiconductors are weak. ### 24. IGV vs Semis (cross-pair) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL This ratio chart shows that semiconductors have been massively outperforming software for a long time. However, the cross has now come down to its 50 exponential moving average, which Atkinson identifies as a very critical point, suggesting a potential reversal or inflection in relative performance. ### 25. Copper (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Copper improved over the last 24 hours, showing some strength in the metals complex. ### 26. Gold Stocks (GDX) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Gold stocks have been showing relative strength compared to the metal itself, as they have not dropped to lower lows while Gold did. The daily 20 moving average is an important level to watch. ### 27. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Silver managed to rally, likely helped by the bounce in gold. ### 28. MSTR (MicroStrategy) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The stock has stabilized following recent announcements from the company. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a 'two-factor' rotational regime, similar to late 2020, where money flows out of leaders (semiconductors, hardware) and into laggards (software, healthcare, financials). There's an inverse relationship noted between software (up) and semiconductors (down), and a positive correlation between Gold and Bitcoin. The analysis also highlights VIX seasonality, which tends to spike in August-October during midterm election years, suggesting volatility may be ahead. ## Key Calls & Predictions - This is going to be a serious earning season and possibly the most important that we've seen in the last 5 years. - Warning about extreme volatility and liquidations in leveraged ETFs (2x and 3x) tracking semiconductors. - A break of key support levels in semiconductors could lead to 'waterfall action' and a 'big systemic style sell.' - VIX seasonality suggests the most extreme volatility of the year could be just around the corner in August, September, and October. - A loss of sentiment in the AI trade could create a domino effect, especially given the debt in private equity markets. ## All Instruments Mentioned SanDisk, Meta, S&P 500, QQQ, SOXL (as "soil"), Semiconductors, Micron, Tesla, Palantir, Cosby (transcription error), TQQQ (as "TQ"), Gold, GLD, Bitcoin, SpaceX, MAG vs X-MAG, Hardware (as a sector), US Dollar, 2-year yield, Regional Banking, Healthcare, Biotech, US Oil, Software, IGV, Copper, Gold Stocks, Silver, IBIT, MSTR --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-03 02:01:10*