# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Why You Need To Pay Attention To The Next 2 Weeks...SP500, Nasdaq **Date:** 2026-07-06 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXU8Ldsx47k) ## Main Thesis The market is in a rotational, range-bound phase with leadership shifting from volatile hardware stocks to more defensive sectors like healthcare and financials. The upcoming earnings season and FOMC minutes over the next two weeks will be critical in determining whether the market breaks out of its current range or breaks down, with the hardware sector at a particularly crucial support level. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Making higher highs and higher lows **Historical Comparison:** In periods of sustained growth or mid/late cycle, RSP normally makes higher highs and higher lows, similar to the period up to January of '22. Atkinson uses the equal-weight RSP to gauge market breadth. He notes it's making higher highs and higher lows, which he interprets as a positive sign of a broadening and healthier market, indicating that performance is not just concentrated in the most important stocks. ### 2. Percentage of stocks above 50 moving average (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Broadening pattern More stocks are above their 50-day moving average than a few weeks ago, which confirms a broadening market. Atkinson notes the indicator does not look super overbought or super oversold. ### 3. BOFA US High Yield Index Option Adjusted Spread (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Not spiking or breaking out **Historical Comparison:** Historically, when this index spiked while markets were sideways, it was an early warning sign. This credit spread, which can be an early warning sign, has not spiked or broken out. This suggests the bond market is not showing significant concern at the moment. ### 4. High Yield Junk Bonds (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Divergence Atkinson points out a divergence where the stock market has rallied, but high yield bonds have not made higher highs since around April. He states this shows the bond market has some concerns and hasn't been coming along with the stock market rally. ### 5. US 10-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Higher highs and higher lows, but starting to chop The 10-year yield, a very important indicator, continues to make higher highs and lows, though it's becoming choppier. The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be important for yields. ### 6. American Consumer (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Weakening, 'K-wave' happening Atkinson describes the American consumer as 'neutral to even down', noting a 'K-wave' pattern where 10% of people are doing 80% of the spending. He sees weakness here, with most market gains coming from capex spending instead. ### 7. Cosby (KOSPI) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Bounced from support, now at a potential supply zone **Key Levels:** support level was reached on the Friday session, resistance around the 20 moving average The KOSPI, a key indicator for semiconductors, reached and bounced from a support level. It is now approaching a potential resistance and supply zone around the 20 moving average where it previously failed. ### 8. SanDisk (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Extreme volatility, down 30% **Key Levels:** getting close to that 50 exponential **Historical Comparison:** Previous pullbacks were also around 30%. The 50 exponential moving average is where previous bounces over the last 'one bit years' have generally come off. SanDisk is down about 30% amid extreme volatility and 'weird disturbing candles', which indicates significant concern. It is approaching its 50 EMA, a level that has historically served as support. Atkinson questions if it's different this time due to the stock's much larger market capitalization. ### 9. MU (Micron) (monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Fallen 24% **Historical Comparison:** A previous fall was 32%. Micron has fallen 24%, less than a previous 32% drop, but its market capitalization is now massive. Atkinson questions the sustainability of its 258% gain in 3 months on the monthly chart, suggesting it may need a rest. ### 10. EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Testing previous structure; a break lower could form a double top **Key Levels:** first level of partial support Used as a proxy for the Korean market, EWY is at a first level of support, testing a structure from May and June. A drop below this level could trigger a double top pattern and further pullbacks. ### 11. KIE (Insurance) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Best performing sector over the last month Insurance was the best performing sector over the last month, up 16%, highlighting the rotation into defensive, low-volatility areas of the market. ### 12. Healthcare (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Making a series of higher highs and higher lows **Key Levels:** broken and closed above the 160 Healthcare has been strong for a few weeks, making higher highs and lows. It has broken and closed above the 160 level, suggesting continued flows into this defensive sector. ### 13. Biotech (monthly, weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Closing above previous monthly and weekly closure prices **Key Levels:** getting closer now to that previous kind of 168 to 175 level **Historical Comparison:** The 168 to 175 resistance level has not been reached since 2021. Biotech is showing strength and approaching a major resistance zone from 2021. Atkinson sees strength in biotech as a sign that risk is still being taken in the market, as these companies tend to burn cash. ### 14. X-MAG (S&P 500 ex-Mag 7) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Making series of higher highs and higher lows The S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7 continues to trend up, confirming the theme of market broadening. ### 15. MAGS (Magnificent 7) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Picked up a little bit last week **Key Levels:** back to that little bit of resistance The Magnificent 7 stocks rallied last week but have now come back to a resistance level. ### 16. SPX (S&P 500) (weekly, monthly, daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Trapped within that range; last two sessions were dojis The S&P 500 is range-bound, having not made a higher high or a lower low. The weekly and monthly trends are up, but the daily is sideways. The last two sessions were indecisive doji candles. ### 17. Nasdaq (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Trapped market; wedge or triangle **Key Levels:** resistances up here, supports at the bottom The Nasdaq is trapped in a range between support and resistance with no clear direction. Atkinson notes that some see a wedge or triangle pattern forming, but he cautions that these can lead to false breakouts. ### 18. Dow (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Higher highs, higher lows, dull The Dow Jones is in a 'dull' uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows. ### 19. Russell (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Still higher highs and higher lows The Russell 2000 continues to make higher highs and lows, supporting the market broadening theme. ### 20. German Market (DAX) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Closed a new weekly high The German market made a new weekly high, which Atkinson sees as another sign of a broadening market due to its lower tech exposure. ### 21. Low vol S&P (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Doing okay versus the tech side The low volatility S&P index is performing well compared to tech, reinforcing the rotation theme. ### 22. Bitcoin (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Closed above the 20 daily moving average **Key Levels:** support above 60, resistance at 66, improvement around this 6100 area Bitcoin showed a first sign of improvement by closing above its 20-day moving average. However, it has not yet broken its larger downtrend structure of lower lows and highs. Key resistance is at 66k. ### 23. Ethereum (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Did not make a lower low; potential double bottom Ethereum showed relative strength to Bitcoin by not making a new lower low. It is potentially forming a double bottom pattern, which would need to break resistance to be confirmed. ### 24. Gold (daily, weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** At resistance at the 20 daily moving average; tweezery style pattern on weekly Gold bounced from a weekly demand area but is now at resistance at the 20-day moving average, which has rejected price multiple times. It needs to break this level to show further strength. ### 25. Silver (daily, weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Getting close to that daily 20 Similar to gold, silver is approaching its 20-day moving average, which is acting as resistance. ### 26. US Dollar (DXY) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Continuing to do higher highs and higher lows; respecting the 20 MA The US Dollar Index is in a clear uptrend, making higher highs and lows and finding support at its 20-day moving average. Its strength is a headwind for commodities like gold. ### 27. Oil (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Continuing to drop; lower lows, lower highs **Key Levels:** lost the key support Oil continues to fall after losing a key support level and remains in a clear downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. ### 28. Apple (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Managed to make a higher high Apple strengthened last week and made a new higher high. ### 29. Amazon (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Rallied to resistance **Key Levels:** got close to the supply Amazon rallied last week but is now approaching a supply zone which could act as resistance. ### 30. Google (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Improved a little bit Google has improved but has not yet reached its key resistance area. ### 31. Microsoft / IGV (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Did a lot better; anti-semiconductor kind of stock sector **Key Levels:** first level of supply Microsoft and the software sector (IGV) performed well as a rotation play out of semiconductors. However, IGV ran into a major supply level after a rapid advance and pulled back. ### 32. Nvidia (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Underperforming for the last six, nine months Nvidia has been underperforming the semiconductor sector for the last 6-9 months and is not showing leadership. Despite some rallies, it is back to where it started. ### 33. Meta (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Meta spooked the market with a big announcement last week suggesting they may have too much compute power and might sell some, raising concerns about over-investment. ### 34. Nike (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Huge volumes down here in the lows; one, two, three, which I often look for for a Wyckoff style base Nike has fallen massively from its highs. While still in a downtrend, it is showing potential bottoming signs with huge volume at the lows and a possible Wyckoff base pattern forming. ### 35. Semiconductors vs SPY Ratio (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Dropped the daily 20, now at the daily 50 MA **Key Levels:** came down to the daily 50 This ratio, described as a 'sentiment tracker', has broken its daily 20 MA support and pulled back to the daily 50 MA, which is a very important support level. A break here would be a problem for the market. ### 36. Oracle (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Falling weekly on weekly on weekly The market is 'destroying Oracle', with the stock in a steep decline. Atkinson suggests the market does not like its debt situation, highlighting serious underlying concerns. ### 37. QCOM (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Coming under significant pressure Qualcomm is another large tech stock that is coming under significant selling pressure. ### 38. ABGO (AVGO) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Coming under significant pressure Broadcom (transcribed as ABGO) is also under significant pressure, showing weakness in parts of the tech sector. ### 39. Chinese Tech (K-web) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Fallen quite a lot **Historical Comparison:** Weaker than the broader Chinese market (CSI 300). Atkinson notes that Chinese tech stocks have fallen significantly, much more so than the broader CSI 300 index. He suggests a policy issue might be hurting their multiples. ### 40. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Typical IPO... rally, rally, rally, dump, dump, dump **Key Levels:** 220 Atkinson notes SpaceX followed a typical IPO pattern of a big rally followed by a big dump. He poses the question of whether it can get above 220 this year. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is described as being in a 'later cycle stage', which is characterized by rotation into defensive, low-volatility sectors like healthcare, insurance, and financials. This is a shift away from the previous leadership of hardware and semiconductors. Atkinson draws a historical comparison to 2020, when the market also entered a rotational, range-bound period before eventually breaking higher, but questions if this time could be a distribution phase before a sell-off. The analysis is heavily based on intermarket relationships between equities, bonds (high yield), yields (10Y), the dollar (DXY), and various equity sectors and international markets (DAX, KOSPI). ## Key Calls & Predictions - The next two weeks are critical and require close attention due to the start of earnings season and the FOMC meeting minutes. - A potential halt in capex spending by the Magnificent 7 could significantly impact economic growth. - The hardware/semiconductor sector is at a crucial support level (e.g., 50-day moving average on key ratios); a break of these levels would be a major warning sign for the market. - The current market broadening into defensive sectors is a symptom of a late-cycle environment. - A warning was issued to not pay too much attention to the CNN Fear & Greed index due to its recent inaccuracy. ## All Instruments Mentioned ABGO (AVGO), Alibaba, Amazon, American Consumer, Apple, Baidu, Biotech, Bitcoin, BOFA US High Yield Index Option Adjusted Spread, Cosby (KOSPI), CSI 300, Dow, Ethereum, EWY, German Market (DAX), Gold, Google, Healthcare, High Yield Junk Bonds, IGV, K-web, KIE (Insurance), Low vol S&P, MAGS, Meta, Microsoft, MU (Micron), Nasdaq, Nike, Nvidia, Oil, Oracle, PLTR, QCOM, Regional Banks, RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight), Russell, S&P 500, SanDisk, Semiconductors vs SPY Ratio, Silver, SpaceX, Tencent, US 10-Year Yield, US Dollar (DXY), Utilities, X-MAG, XLF, ZG --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-07 02:02:40*