# Wall Street Insiders Are Selling? **Date:** 2026-07-07 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neFIvq7Wwb0) ## Main Thesis The market is at a critical juncture heading into a volatile earnings season, with the key risk being a breakdown in the semiconductor/AI hardware trade, even as the broader market shows signs of strength and rotation into other sectors. Insider selling in hot stocks and key technical levels in major indices are signaling a potential shift. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Semiconductors vs S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Discusses the 'hardware trade' (semiconductors outperforming the S&P) as the backbone of the AI bubble. The chart shows a 'massive rejection' candle after a rally, dump, and another rally, indicating potential weakness. This is a key relationship to watch, as losing semiconductors would be a major problem for the market. ### 2. QQQ (Nasdaq 100) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Wedge (mentioned as being drawn by others, but he is cautious) **Key Levels:** 740 support/resistance, 700 support, 730 resistance The Nasdaq is described as being trapped in a 'pit' or range. Atkinson notes that while many are drawing a wedge, he prefers horizontal levels like 740 and 700. The 700 level is highlighted as the most important for bulls to hold, with huge put interest there. From an options perspective, 730 is the most call-written area. ### 3. Semiconductors (ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 600 support The semiconductor ETF has lost recent levels of support, falling through over the last few sessions. Atkinson highlights the 600 level as a 'watershed style moment' based on put options. A break below this level could lead to even worse volatility. ### 4. Cosby (transcription unclear) (daily, weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 7200 support Atkinson points to a key support level on a chart he calls 'Cosby' (likely a transcription error for an index or future) around the 7200 zone. He states that losing this level would be a big issue, as it would create a lower low on the daily and weekly charts for this key sector, breaking the bullish trend. ### 5. Gold (XAU/USD) (weekly, daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHING FOR BULLISH TURN **Pattern:** Tweezer low Gold is at an interesting technical point. On the weekly, it's finding support at a previous demand level. On the daily, it is testing the 20 EMA for the third time, which is a key test to see if it can break the series of lower lows and lower highs. A move through the daily 20 would be a first sign of a more significant recovery. He notes a 'tweezer low' pattern has formed. Outflows have been extreme, which can be a contrarian indicator. ### 6. VIX (None) **Bias:** BULLISH (ON VOLATILITY) **Pattern:** Seasonal spike A seasonality chart shows that the VIX tends to spike around this earnings season period in July. This suggests an increase in market volatility is expected. ### 7. S&P 500 (SPX) (weekly, monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Key Levels:** 7550 resistance **Historical Comparison:** Similar setups had a 25-0 bullish history for early July (Wayne Whaley) The S&P 500 chart is described as 'sideways' and 'having a sleep', but the advance-decline line continues up. The weekly and monthly trends are still intact. A bullish MACD signal near all-time highs suggests the rally could continue. The most important options level is 7550, which is the most struck level across all expirations. ### 8. Bitcoin (BTC) (weekly, daily) **Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Key Levels:** 67000 resistance **Historical Comparison:** Recovery to the weekly 200 MA is similar to the 'last cyclical phase' in 2022 Bitcoin has recovered back to its weekly 200 moving average, similar to a pattern in 2022. It has also reclaimed the daily 20 MA. ETF flows, while terrible historically, have turned positive in the last two sessions, and whale accumulation was noted last month. A move past 67,000 would create a higher high and could stop the structural downtrend. ### 9. SBIT (Short Bitcoin ETF) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Large dark pool transactions were noted around a key area, leading to speculation that shorts may be covering their positions. ### 10. RSP (Equal-Weighted S&P 500) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The equal-weighted market is described as 'not sick'. More stocks and sectors are going up, indicating broadening market participation. ### 11. Low Volatility Stocks (e.g., SPLV) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Low volatility stocks are going up. Atkinson notes that spikes in low-vol are often a sign of being closer to a peak earnings period or a late-cycle style market. ### 12. IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 36 resistance (call wall), 33-34 support (put area) Options levels for the IBIT ETF are identified, with a call wall around 36 and a significant put area between 33 and 34. ### 13. Software (ETF) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH (RELATIVE TO SEMIS) Software has been showing relative strength, doing the opposite of semiconductors recently. As semis have gone down, software has seen a slight improvement. ### 14. Insurance (ETF) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Breakout The insurance ETF is shown making a new higher high, breaking out of a long, sideways market ('pit'). ### 15. Biotech (ETF) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 170-175 resistance/target Biotech has been picking up recently. Continued strength is seen as a positive sign for the market and is characteristic of 'stronger later cycle style markets'. Potential targets are in the 170-175 area. ### 16. Gold Stocks (GDX) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Gold stocks are noted for having held their lows and not making a new lower low. They have rallied slightly but all eyes are on the metal itself. ### 17. Copper (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Briefly mentioned as just sitting in a 'middling zone'. ### 18. Silver (XAG/USD) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Silver is following gold but was weaker, failing to reach its daily 20 EMA. ### 19. Oil (WTI/Brent) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Downtrend **Key Levels:** 65 support (potential) Oil is in a clear downtrend, making a series of lower lows and lower highs. Atkinson calls it a 'cautionary tale' and notes it will require market structure to stop the fall. He speculates on a potential bottom around 65 a barrel. ### 20. Oil Stocks (XLE) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL In contrast to the commodity, oil stocks are 'still holding okay'. ### 21. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Pattern:** Double bottom (potential) Ethereum has a potential double bottom pattern, as it did not make a lower low. It has rallied back up to a resistance level where it is struggling. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis Atkinson discusses a clear theme of market rotation. There are signs of capital moving out of the leading semiconductor/hardware sector and into previously lagging or defensive areas like software, financials, regional banks, insurance, biotech, and healthcare. He identifies this as potentially characteristic of a 'late cycle style market', particularly noting the strength in low volatility stocks and biotech. Intermarket analysis highlights the recent inverse relationship between software and semiconductors, the positive correlation between gold and bitcoin, and the divergence between the falling price of oil and the relative stability of oil stocks. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The upcoming earnings season is potentially the most important in 5 years due to high valuations and lofty expectations. - TSM's earnings on July 16th will be a critical event for the market. - A breakdown in the semiconductor sector, the 'AI capex spend story', is the primary risk that could turn the market negative. - Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is seasonally expected to spike in July. - The 700 level on the QQQ is the most important support for bulls to defend. - The 600 level on the semiconductor ETF is a 'watershed' options-based level; a break below could trigger significant selling. - For Bitcoin, a move above 67,000 is needed to break the bearish market structure and signal a potential reversal. ## All Instruments Mentioned Samsung, S&P 500, Delta, TSM, SK Hynix, SpaceX, Mag 7, QQQ, Semiconductors, Bonds, US Dollar, Gold, VIX, Bitcoin, MSTR, SBIT, Spy, Cosby (transcription unclear), RSP, Low Volatility Stocks, IBIT, Software, Insurance ETF, Biotech, Healthcare, Gold Stocks, Copper, Silver, Oil, Oil Stocks, Ethereum --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-07 02:01:09*