# Wall Streets Biggest Bear Is Back…
**Date:** 2026-07-08  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMT3ReHmM3g)

## Main Thesis
Michael Burry is calling for the end of the AI bubble, and while tech stocks show significant weakness and are at a critical consolidation point, the broader market remains resilient, creating a 'tale of two markets' ahead of a pivotal earnings season.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Technology Sector (XLK) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Historical Comparison:** A divergence where tech (XLK) gaps down while financials move up is compared to periods before the GFC and dot-com crash.

Technology has come under extreme pressure, with over 55% of tech stocks now below their 50-day moving average, a sharp decline from over 80% previously. This weakness is part of a rare divergence where tech gaps down while financials move up, a pattern that historically preceded major market crashes.

### 2. Semiconductors (SOX) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 600 support, 550 support

Michael Burry is reportedly short SOX. The sector is making a series of lower lows and lower highs and has broken below the key 600 level, putting it 'firmly in negative gamma'. Options data shows a large number of puts at 600 and 550, suggesting 550 could be the next downside target.

### 3. SanDisk (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Used as an example of extreme weakness in the tech sector, having lost over 36% over the last couple of sessions. Atkinson notes that Wall Street analysts were upgrading the stock just recently.

### 4. Micron (MU) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Historical Comparison:** The current period of insider selling near the highs is compared to the 2013-2014 run, where similar selling occurred but the stock still had more room to go up.

Michael Burry is reportedly short Micron. The stock has fallen 29% from its top. Insiders have been selling recently, and three of the largest trades ever occurred near its all-time highs. A historical comparison to 2013-14 suggests that while insider selling is a warning, it may not mark the absolute top.

### 5. US Oil (USO) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounce

Oil spiked over the last 24 hours on geopolitical conflict news. This bounce comes after the fourth largest transaction ever recorded for USO about two weeks ago slowed the decline. The current move up could be a concern for markets and potentially impact bonds and yields.

### 6. Nasdaq (Qs) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** diamond pattern, consolidation, range-bound
**Key Levels:** 695 support, 700 support

The Nasdaq is trapped between support and resistance in what many are calling a 'diamond pattern'. This is a form of consolidation or pullback in time. A breakout from this range could be 'quite fearsome'. The 695-700 level is a very important support zone with a large number of puts sitting there.

### 7. S&P 500 (US 500) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 7550 resistance, 7500 support, 7300 support

The S&P 500 is in a 'tale of two markets' where the advance-decline line shows more stocks rising than falling (excluding tech). It is caught between resistance and support. Options levels show core walls around 7550 and puts at 7500, with the next significant put level not until 7300, suggesting the market is 'not exactly terrifying' at this stage.

### 8. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average resistance

Gold has failed at the daily 20 moving average resistance twice, corresponding with the US Dollar bouncing off its 20 MA support. While seasonality data suggests a pickup in July-September, the price action is not yet confirming it. CTA positioning is described as 'in the dirt', which could be a contrarian indicator.

### 9. Bitcoin (BTC) (weekly, daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 36 core wall, 33 support, 34 support

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is below the 200 moving average, which is not a positive sign. However, on the daily chart, it is holding above the 20 MA. ETF flows have turned positive for the last two days, which is an encouraging sign. Options data shows a 'core wall' around 36k and a 'put zone' around 33-34k.

### 10. Kospi (daily, weekly, monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** all-important level of demand

The Kospi rallied and then dumped following Samsung's earnings in a 'sell the news' event. It is now pressuring an 'all-important level of demand'. While the longer-term trends are still up, it is at a critical zone that has seen weak rejections before, and the question is whether the selling will be sustained.

### 11. Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (RSP) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** maintained higher highs or higher lows

Contrasting with tech weakness, the equal-weighted market is 'not anywhere near as bad'. It is described as 'relatively dull' and has maintained higher highs or higher lows, highlighting the 'tale of two markets'.

### 12. Silver (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Not much to update on price. However, CTA positioning has been picking up recently, which could mean they are starting to see 'signs of life around these demand zones'.

### 13. Insurance ETFs (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout

Cited as an example of a strong sector, Insurance ETFs broke out about a week or two ago after a long period of consolidation and are showing 'slight strength'.

### 14. Software (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** picking up

The software sector has been 'picking up over the last couple of weeks' and showed a big rejection candle at its lows.

### 15. Biotech (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** continues to strengthen

Biotech 'just continues to strengthen', making higher highs with a lot of momentum. Its continued strength is considered a good sign for the broader market.

### 16. US Dollar Index (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average support

The dollar is holding a series of higher highs and higher lows and found support at its 20-day moving average. Its bounce corresponds with the rejection seen in Gold.

### 17. Gold Stocks (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** No lower low
**Key Levels:** key level

Gold stocks are described as 'faring okay'. Despite a big drop in the last 24 hours, they have not made a lower low and are holding around a key support level.

### 18. Copper (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped within the range

Copper is not doing much and is 'trapped within the range effectively'.

### 19. US 30 Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** first sign of potentially a higher high
**Key Levels:** 5%, 5.1%

The 30-year yield spiked up, moving past the 'all important 5% area'. This is the first sign of a potential higher high after a period of lower highs, and the uptrend is holding.

### 20. Ethereum (ETH) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** double bottom potential

Ethereum has a 'double bottom potential' and is trapped within a range. Importantly, it did not make a lower low, which is 'slightly encouraging for the crypto traders'.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is currently in a 'tale of two markets' regime. There is a significant divergence between the weak technology/semiconductor sector, which is under pressure, and the rest of the market (equal-weight S&P, Dow, Russell, insurance, software, biotech) which remains resilient or strong. This rotation is highlighted by a rare signal where tech gaps down while financials move up, a pattern historically seen before major market crashes. The macro driver remains the AI buildout and associated CapEx spend; a change in this narrative could lead to a significantly weaker overall market.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The 16th of July is a critical date to watch due to TSM's prelim earnings, which could 'make or break this earning season'.
- A breakout from the Nasdaq's (Qs) 'diamond pattern' consolidation could be 'quite fearsome'.
- The 695-700 level on the Qs is a critical support zone.
- Semiconductors are in negative gamma after losing the 600 level, with a potential downside target of 550.
- If the AI buildout story and CapEx spend starts to dry out, the market could become 'way, way more significantly weaker'.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Nvidia, SOX, MU, Tesla, SanDisk, TSM, Amazon, XLK, USO, Delta, XLE, XOP, OIH, Health Care Sector, Staples Sector, Utilities Sector, Qs, S&P 500, Gold, BTC, MSTR, Kospi, Samsung, RSP, Dow, Russell 2000, Silver, Insurance ETFs, Software, Biotech, US Dollar Index, Gold Stocks, Copper, US 30 Year Yield, Ethereum, SK Hynix

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-09 02:05:44*