# Wall Streets Biggest Test…
**Date:** 2026-07-09  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGOXR7fiEQo)

## Main Thesis
The market is at a critical juncture, testing a massive put wall on the NASDAQ around the 700 level on QQQ, which could trigger a significant sell-off if it breaks. While technology and semiconductor stocks are showing weakness, there is a broadening pattern into other sectors, creating a complex and pivotal environment for traders.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. QQQ (NASDAQ) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** pullback in time (PIT)
**Key Levels:** 700 put wall, 695 and 700 critical point

A massive put wall with over 100 million in open interest is located at the 700 level. This zone is critical and could create a 'super negative gamma event' or 'waterfall style action' if broken. Atkinson speculates there has been buying around the 700 put wall and selling at resistance highs, creating a range-bound market or 'pullback in time'. The 695-700 zone is considered one of the most important points for the market and held over the last 24 hours.

### 2. Technology Stocks (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** broadening pattern is not in tech

Technology stocks have been declining, with less than 45% of them above their 50-day moving average. This indicates a lack of broad participation within the tech sector, contrasting with a broadening pattern seen across other areas of the market.

### 3. JPMorgan (JPM) (last couple of years)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** chop
**Historical Comparison:** The last number one largest transaction was in mid-2021, which preceded the 2022 market fall.

Atkinson notes that several of the largest recent transactions have been in JPMorgan. He observes that Wall Street is often early with their big trades and that numerous large transactions over the past year may explain the choppy price action in the stock. He warns that if JPM sets up in a certain way, things could turn bad for the market.

### 4. USO (Oil Fund) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** spiking

USO has been spiking over the last 48 hours due to geopolitical conflict. This follows large transactions that went through near the end of June. Atkinson advises focusing on price action over the news, which can be contradictory.

### 5. Oracle (ORCL) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** defending the current zone
**Historical Comparison:** Credit default swaps on Oracle have risen to levels not seen since 2007-2008.

Oracle's credit default swaps have been rising, indicating market stress. A huge transaction occurred in the last 24 hours that led to the stock defending its current support zone. This level will be watched closely.

### 6. Micron (MU) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** hit one of the major first support zones

Micron, considered a key tell for the hardware cycle, has fallen 30% from its previous high. It has seen significant insider selling and hit a major support zone in the last 24 hours.

### 7. US 30-Year Yields (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** broke back above 5%, new highs of 5.2%

The 30-year yield has broken back above 5% and is in an uptrend, driven by geopolitical conflict and inflation fears. If it moves towards the recent highs of 5.2%, it could create real fear in the market and cause the VIX to spike.

### 8. VIX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The VIX will be watched closely, especially into earnings week. A spike in the VIX, or the V-IX (volatility of the VIX), could be an early warning sign of market problems.

### 9. BofA Yield Spread (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** still remaining extremely low

This credit spread remains extremely low and is not showing the signs of concern that would typically be seen in a full-blown credit crash. The bond market appears to be 'chilling'.

### 10. US Oil (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** trend change from lower lows/highs to a slightly higher high
**Key Levels:** hit the first level of resistance, daily 20 moving average

US Oil has hit resistance at the daily 20 moving average. It has shown the first sign of a trend change, moving from a series of lower lows and lower highs to making a slightly higher high, suggesting a potential reversal after a large sell-off.

### 11. Energy Stocks (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bouncing pretty heavily
**Key Levels:** swiping the lows of the previous points

Energy stocks are bouncing heavily, similar to oil. The sector dipped below previous consolidation lows, likely stopping out some traders, before rallying back up.

### 12. KOSPI (daily, weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** daily or weekly 20 [moving average], demand area that we saw previously back in May

The South Korean market (KOSPI) has hit the daily/weekly 20 moving average, which acted as a demand area and support back in May. If this level fails to hold, it could signal broader weakness aligning with the QQQ and semiconductors.

### 13. Russell 2000 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** remaining relatively dull

The Russell 2000 is described as being 'relatively dull', suggesting it is not participating in the market's major moves.

### 14. US30 (Dow) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend

The Dow remains in an upward trend, indicating that not all parts of the market are showing weakness.

### 15. RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** holding the 20 moving average

The equal-weight S&P 500 is still in an upward trend and holding its 20 moving average, which shows broad market strength.

### 16. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound

The S&P 500's advance-decline line is making a series of higher highs and higher lows, but the index itself is trapped in a range. The specific levels mentioned in the transcript (7300, 7600) are clear transcription errors and have been omitted.

### 17. S&P 500 Futures (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck in the middle

The futures market is also stuck in a range, with no close above resistance or below support. The specific levels mentioned in the transcript (73, 76) are clear transcription errors and have been omitted.

### 18. IGV (Software ETF) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

The software sector is performing better, acting as a 'counterparty' to the weakness in semiconductors.

### 19. Biotech (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Biotech is mentioned as a more defensive sector that has been performing relatively well.

### 20. US Dollar (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potentially made a lower high
**Key Levels:** holding the daily 20 moving average

The US Dollar is holding its daily 20 moving average but has potentially formed a lower high. A test of the 20 MA from here would be a negative technical sign.

### 21. Gold (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** three touches of the 20 moving average
**Key Levels:** sits at the 20 moving average

Gold is sitting at its 20 moving average, having touched it three times. This is an important zone to watch. The transcript mentions a level of 4200, which is a clear transcription error and has been omitted.

### 22. Ethereum (ETH) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential double bottom pattern
**Key Levels:** 2100 (potential target)

Ethereum is showing strength, similar to gold, and did not make a lower low recently. If it makes a higher high, it could confirm a potential double bottom pattern with a possible target of 2100.

### 23. Bitcoin (BTC) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend with first signs of recovery
**Key Levels:** managed to get through the daily 20 [moving average]

Bitcoin has reclaimed its daily 20 moving average but has not yet made a higher high, so it remains in a downward trend. However, there are early signs of recovery, including improved ETF flows and whale purchasing.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'broadening pattern' where technology and hardware stocks are underperforming while other sectors like energy, biotech, and healthcare are showing strength. This is occurring within the context of a potential 'AI bubble' fueled by hardware capex spending. A key risk is a slowdown in debt creation from Mag 7 companies, which could negatively impact GDP. There is also a discussion of typical market volatility during midterm election years (July-October). An intermarket comparison was made between the current divergence of tech and financials (XLF) to the periods around the 2000 and 2007 market tops.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Critical market levels must be respected, or things could get serious quickly.
- The 700 put wall on QQQ is a major risk; a break could lead to a 'waterfall style' sell-off.
- A slowdown in debt creation from Mag 7 stocks could lead to a huge reduction in GDP.
- If the KOSPI fails to hold its key support level, it could signal broader weakness in tech and semiconductors.
- Watch for a spike in the VIX or V-IX as an early warning sign of market problems.

## All Instruments Mentioned
NASDAQ, QQQ, Semiconductors, KOSPI, TSM, Samsung, JP Morgan, JPM, USO, Oracle, ORCL, XLF, SK Hynix, Delta, Micron, MU, Gold, Bitcoin, US 30-Year Yields, VIX, V-IX, BofA Yield Spread, US Oil, Energy Stocks, Russell 2000, US30, Dow, RSP, S&P 500, S&P 500 Futures, Insurance, IGV, Software, Biotech, Healthcare, Utilities, US Dollar, Silver, Ethereum, ETH, MSTR, Amazon, Google, Microsoft

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-09 02:03:06*