# Wall Street Spreads Are The Widest Ever…
**Date:** 2026-07-10  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKPfO7MeSDU)

## Main Thesis
The market is in a trapped, consolidative state ahead of one of the most important earnings seasons, with massive inflows into semiconductors despite a major divergence between their earnings growth and price action. High volatility is expected as key reports from TSM and major banks will likely determine the market's next directional move.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Atkinson highlights a massive $5.4 billion inflow into the semiconductor ETF in a single day, showing huge demand for hardware and semiconductor stocks. He notes the sector has reached potentially very important demand and moving average zones, but questions whether the buying is institutional or retail on the dip, setting the stage for a critical earnings season.

### 2. Hindenburg Omen (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Historical Comparison:** The last time numbers were this high, markets were often close to tops.

A cluster of 11 Hindenburg Omen signals occurred in June, passing the critical threshold of 8. While historically a signal for market tops, Atkinson notes its timing has been less reliable in recent years.

### 3. Warren Buffett's Fund (Berkshire Hathaway) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 397 billion cash pile
**Historical Comparison:** Similar to 2005-2006 when he was early in his caution but ultimately right.

The fund's latest filings show a record cash pile of around $397 billion, indicating a cautious or bearish stance on current market valuations. This is compared to his actions in 2005-2006.

### 4. S&P 500 Forward P/E Valuation (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

According to a chart from Duality Research, the market's forward P/E valuation is in the middle band, suggesting it is neither oversold nor super overbought heading into earnings season. This reflects the community's disagreement on the AI trade.

### 5. Semiconductors (EPS vs Price Change) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Divergence

A critical divergence is highlighted where year-on-year EPS change for semiconductors is 'going ballistic', while the year-on-year price change is going in the opposite direction. This makes the upcoming earnings season highly consequential.

### 6. Samsung (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** support

Despite a 'huge number' for its earnings, the market sold Samsung down into support. That support level has now been reached, and the stock has seen inflows and positive price action in the last 24 hours.

### 7. Biotechnology (XBI) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Biotechnology was one of the best-performing sectors over the last month, with signs of strength first appearing in late May/mid-June. The sector is described as 'absolutely flying still'.

### 8. Healthcare Sector (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Healthcare has also performed well recently, being one of the better sectors of the last month after a long period of poor performance.

### 9. QQQ (Nasdaq 100) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Pullback in Time (pit), Diamond Formation
**Key Levels:** 700 support (put wall), 730 resistance

The QQQ is trapped in a range, which Atkinson calls a 'pit' (pullback in time), correlated between 700 and 730. A massive put wall with over $100 million in open interest sits at the 700 level, which has held as support. A break below this level could create a 'waterfall effect' or 'negative gamma push'.

### 10. Put/Call Ratio (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Historical Comparison:** In similar circumstances, 90% of the time the markets were bullish 5 days later.

The put/call ratio just crossed a threshold. Historically, this has led to bullish market performance over the next 5 days, 90% of the time.

### 11. Singapore ETF (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breakout from a dull market
**Key Levels:** key resistance
**Historical Comparison:** Prices not visited since the last global financial crisis in 2007.

The Singapore market has been trying to reach multi-year highs, closing with higher highs and higher lows. It is breaking out of a multi-year dull period, reaching price levels not seen since 2007, which can often lead to explosive moves.

### 12. SNDK (2x Short ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** key zone

A large transaction was noted on a two-times short semiconductor fund (ticker mentioned as SNDK). The fund is at a key zone.

### 13. JP Morgan (JPM) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Cluster of large transactions
**Key Levels:** all-time highs

A ton of large transaction clusters have appeared on JPM near its all-time highs. Atkinson stresses that the market's reaction (buy, sell, or pit) to these clusters is the key information, not the clusters themselves.

### 14. USO (Oil ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** technical resistance

USO saw its fourth-largest transaction recently, which was followed by a rally. However, oil has now hit a technical resistance level for the time being.

### 15. Gold (weekly, daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Downward technical trend, Tweezer bottom (weekly)
**Key Levels:** 4137 resistance, 4200 resistance, 360-365 support (put level on GLD)
**Historical Comparison:** Data suggests gold can see bullish action around this time in midterm election years.

Gold remains in a downward technical trend, held down by the daily 20 moving average. However, it's showing the first signs of improved structure and formed a 'tweezer' rejection pattern on the weekly chart at a potential demand level. A break above the downward trend line and the 4200 level is needed for a bullish turn. CTAs are also noted as being extremely oversold.

### 16. Bitcoin (BTC) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Slight recovery
**Key Levels:** 67,000 resistance

Despite massive outflows from ETFs, Bitcoin's price has been improving and 'dancing' with the daily 20 moving average. It is showing the first signs of a slight recovery, with 67,000 being a key level to watch in the future.

### 17. High Yield Junk Bonds (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The high yield junk bond market is 'not freaked out,' and spreads are not indicating a crisis. This suggests that recent selling in the broader market was more about valuations rather than a systemic debt issue.

### 18. KOSPI (South Korean Market) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** demand level

The KOSPI is holding a very important demand level. A drop below this level could trigger negative gamma or liquidations due to the high leverage reported in the market. This is critical ahead of the SK Hynix IPO.

### 19. Micron (MU) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Island Reversal
**Key Levels:** support, 50 exponential moving average

Micron, along with other semiconductor stocks, experienced a rally off support, forming a technical 'island reversal' pattern (a gap down followed by a gap up). The stock also found support at the 50 exponential moving average.

### 20. Energy Sector (XLE implied) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Structure formation

After a 'freight train' move to the downside, the energy sector is starting to form a bottoming structure. It made a higher high this week and, on the daily chart, made a lower low before rallying back up, which is a constructive sign.

### 21. RSP (Equal-weighted S&P 500) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Series of higher highs and higher lows

The equal-weighted market continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting the market is 'pretty well intact underneath the hood'.

### 22. S&P 500 (SPX) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Bullish hammer, Trapped market
**Key Levels:** 7600 resistance, 7550 resistance

Similar to the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 is trapped. However, it formed an encouraging bullish hammer in the last 24 hours, and the advance-decline line remains solid. Key options levels to watch are 7550 and 7600; a break above 7600 could trigger a positive gamma event.

### 23. Semiconductors (SMH/SOXX Options) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 600

The 600 level is the most struck options level for semiconductors. The price dipped below but has since rallied back above it, making it a key level to watch during earnings.

### 24. IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 36 call wall

The major call wall for IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF, is around the 36 level.

### 25. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 150 put support

The stock is trading right on a significant put level at 150, highlighting the volatility in recent IPOs.

### 26. Insurance ETF (KIE) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breakout

The insurance ETF broke out a week or two ago and has started to improve its price action.

### 27. Financials (XLF implied) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breakout, Higher highs and higher lows

Financials broke out back in June and have been making higher highs and higher lows since. The performance of stocks like JP Morgan will be watched closely next week.

### 28. Copper (daily, weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Higher high, Holding weekly 20 MA

Dr. Copper is already improving, having formed a higher high. On the weekly chart, it is holding the 20 moving average and trying to re-test highs, which is a positive sign for global GDP growth.

### 29. Ethereum (ETH) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Potential double bottom

Ethereum is showing a potential double bottom formation and is pressing a little bit higher along with the broader crypto market.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'trapped' or 'pullback in time' (pit) regime, characterized by consolidation and uncertainty ahead of a pivotal earnings season. There is a major intermarket divergence in the semiconductor space, where 'ballistic' earnings growth is not being matched by price performance. Sector rotation is evident, with strength moving into biotechnology (XBI), healthcare, and financials, while former leaders like the Nasdaq consolidate. The bond market is not showing signs of stress, suggesting equity weakness is valuation-based rather than systemic. Seasonally, midterm election years often feature a Q3 sell-off, and the VIX is entering a period where it can become volatile.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- This is one of the biggest, most important earning seasons of all time, with TSM's prelims on July 16th and bank earnings being the first critical tests.
- Watch the QQQ at the 700 level; it's a massive put wall, and a break below could trigger a 'waterfall effect' or negative gamma push.
- A break above 7600 in the S&P 500 could lead to a 'positive gamma style event' due to heavy call options concentration.
- Expect significant volatility to return, driven by earnings outcomes and seasonal patterns in the VIX.
- The island reversal patterns in semiconductor stocks like Micron are potentially bullish, but their validity depends entirely on upcoming earnings reports.
- For gold to confirm a bullish turn, it must break its downward trend line and the key 4200 resistance level.
- For Bitcoin, 67,000 is the key level to watch for a potential recovery.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SOXX, Hindenburg Omen, TSM, Samsung, Biotechnology (XBI), Healthcare Sector, Banks, NASDAQ, VIX, QQQ, Put/Call Ratio, European ETFs, Singapore ETF, Emerging Markets, SNDK (2x Short ETF), JP Morgan (JPM), USO, Delta (DAL), Gold, Bitcoin (BTC), High Yield Junk Bonds, KOSPI, SK Hynix, SNDK (stock), Micron (MU), Energy Sector, RSP, S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Semiconductors, IBIT, SpaceX, Insurance ETF (KIE), Software Sector, Financials, Silver, Copper, Ethereum (ETH)

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-11 02:01:21*