# Wall Street Gets A New Record… **Date:** 2026-07-12 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLy7dLtRnSg) ## Main Thesis The market is at a critical juncture ahead of a major earnings season, with the S&P 500 pressing all-time highs while hardware stocks are in a potential 'dead cat bounce' off oversold levels. Conflicting signals like strong debt appetite versus low retail cash and Hindenburg omens suggest high volatility is coming, and earnings will be key to determining the next direction. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Energy Stocks (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Atkinson notes that 9 in 10 energy stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 this year, even while oil barrels remain cheap. He highlights this divergence as something strange and worth watching. ### 2. Semiconductor Stocks (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Oversold bounce **Key Levels:** 600 support Discusses a chart showing an oversold condition in semiconductor stocks after a significant drop. He questions whether the subsequent bounce is a 'dead cat bounce'—a relief rally that traps liquidity before heading lower. He states that the upcoming earnings season will be crucial in determining the direction. He later notes that the 600 level is a key support, and losing it could create a 'waterfall effect'. ### 3. LABU (Biotech 3x ETF) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Someone placed large transactions on LABU, a three-times levered biotech ETF. The chart showed an 'epic run' followed by a drop, which could indicate that the biotech sector is taking a breather. ### 4. JP Morgan (JPM) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Slightly higher highs and higher lows Mentions that there have been 'clusters all over the place' for JPM. The stock is described as looking 'a little dull', just making slightly higher highs and higher lows around its peak levels ahead of earnings. ### 5. Oil (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Divergence with energy stocks Atkinson calls oil a 'sleeper' that people aren't paying enough attention to. He highlights a major divergence where energy stocks and oil services are holding up or rallying, while oil barrels have fallen over 40% from their highs and are 'floating all over the lows'. He questions if something is changing in the oil markets. ### 6. Oil Futures (March 2027) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 69 a barrel To understand the divergence between oil stocks and spot prices, he looks at a longer-term contract (March 2027), which is sitting at $69 a barrel. This is only down about 15% from its highs, suggesting the market is pricing in a 'relatively higher for longer' barrel price. ### 7. Oil Services (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He notes that oil services was one of the better-performing sectors of the last week, up about 5% from the lows. While it hasn't made a higher high and is still in a downward trend, he sees it as a sign of improvement. ### 8. KOSPI ('The Cosby') (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Referred to as 'the Cosby' (likely a mis-transcription of KOSPI), he identifies this as the 'hardware trade'. It is still under a lot of pressure and sitting near its lows, waiting for major news like TSM's earnings to see if these levels can hold. ### 9. Micron (MU) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Similar to the KOSPI, Micron is holding at critical support levels ahead of earnings news. He notes there were huge inflows into semiconductor ETFs (SOXX) recently. ### 10. Equal Weighted S&P 500 (RSP) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Higher highs and higher lows The equal-weighted market is still in a trend of higher highs and higher lows and is generally picking up, indicating broader market health. ### 11. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Pit or diamond, range-bound **Key Levels:** 700 put support, 730 resistance The QQQ is described as being 'stuck in a pit or diamond'. The 700 put support level has been too strong for the market to break through. It is currently stuck in a range between 700 and 730. ### 12. S&P 500 (SPX) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Approaching all-time highs **Key Levels:** 7600 resistance, 7560 support The S&P 500 is approaching critical resistance near its all-time highs around 7600. The advance-decline line is also going up, suggesting the underlying market is not as 'sick' as some might think. It closed near the 7600 options zone, with most calls sitting between 7560 and 7600. ### 13. Bank ETFs (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Higher highs, higher lows Bank ETFs are in a trend of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a generally healthy debt market ahead of their earnings reports. ### 14. XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Higher highs and higher lows Similar to other bank ETFs, the XLF is making a series of higher highs and higher lows. This, along with bond market action, suggests the banks and debt markets think conditions are healthy. ### 15. Gold (XAUUSD) (daily, weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Downward trendline Gold is still on a downward trendline and holding below the daily 20 moving average. The weekly chart closed with a 'nice wick' off a previous demand level. He notes that gold usually leads other metals. (Note: Stated levels of '360' and '4200' were omitted as they are clear transcription errors). ### 16. Dollar Index (DXY) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Bullish trend The dollar is still in a bullish trend but has weakened slightly. He states that if the dollar strengthens, it will be hard for gold to rally. (Note: A stated level of '1015' was omitted as it is a clear transcription error). ### 17. Copper (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Copper is 'stuck in the middle' but doesn't look bearish. The general trend has still been bullish, so it 'looks okay'. ### 18. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Double bottom potential base Ethereum has a potential double bottom base forming and is trying to put pressure on a key level over the weekend. ### 19. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Stabilizing **Key Levels:** 66,000 resistance Bitcoin is 'holding pretty well' despite recent negative press. ETF outflows have stabilized, which is a good sign. He notes large volumes at the bottom. A key bullish signal to watch for would be a close above '66,000 plus'. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The analysis points to a market at a 'huge juncture point' with conflicting signals. There's a potential bubble in AI/hardware, evidenced by a massive spread between bullish analyst upgrades and cautious price action. However, the broader macro environment still shows a 'healthy appetite' for debt and leverage, as seen in recent large bond issuances and IPOs. Contrarian indicators are flashing warnings, such as extremely low retail investor cash allocations and multiple Hindenburg omens. Intermarket analysis highlights a key divergence between rallying energy stocks and low oil barrel prices, suggesting a potential shift. The Fed's new focus on AI is also noted as a source of future policy uncertainty. ## Key Calls & Predictions - This earnings season is one of the most important in years and investors need to be watching closely, especially TSM and the banks. - The recent bounce in oversold semiconductor stocks could be a 'dead cat bounce' that traps liquidity before moving lower. - Volatility is expected to be high, particularly as the market heads into a midterm election year. - Pay attention to the divergence between energy stocks and the price of oil barrels, as it could signal a significant change in that market. - A loss of the 600 support level in semiconductors could trigger a 'waterfall effect'. - For Bitcoin, a sustained close above the 66,000 level is a key bullish signal to watch for. ## All Instruments Mentioned S&P 500, Energy Stocks, Semiconductors, Amazon (AMZN), SKH, TSM, Netflix (NFLX), City (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Hindenburg omen, LABU, Oil, Silver, Gold, Bitcoin (BTC), NG, Oil Services, KOSPI, MU (Micron), RSP (Equal Weighted S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), SPX, SPCX, Bank ETFs, XLF, Dollar Index (DXY), Copper, US 2K (Russell 2000), Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average), Ethereum (ETH) --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-12 02:00:53*