# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Hardware/Semi/KOSPI Volatility Into Massive Earnings Week, SP500
**Date:** 2026-07-13  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XOD8bLXtNQ)

## Main Thesis
The hardware and semiconductor sector is under extreme pressure, highlighted by the KOSPI's sharp drop, while the rest of the market, particularly financials, remains relatively healthy. The market is waiting for key earnings from banks on Tuesday and TSM on Thursday to determine if this weakness is contained or will become systemic.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. KOSPI (daily, 2 hour, 4 hour, weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** technical downward trend, series of lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** weekly 20 moving average (broken below)

Atkinson began the stream highlighting the KOSPI, which fell almost 9%, taking out liquidity and activating shorts. He describes it as being in a clear technical downward trend on multiple timeframes (2-hour, 4-hour, daily) with a series of lower lows and lower highs. He notes it has fallen through the weekly 20 moving average, which is not a positive sign. He believes the drop is a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' event following strong preliminary earnings from Samsung and is concentrated in the hardware/semiconductor sector.

### 2. Semiconductor SPY (SMH) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** daily 50 exponential moving average

Atkinson refers to the semiconductor index as the 'backbone of the market'. He points out that it is currently at the daily 50 exponential moving average, which he considers a 'pretty important level for it to hold'. The performance at this level is critical for the market's direction.

### 3. Financials (XLF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** at or close or even above its own highs

He uses the financial sector to gauge systemic risk and whether the bond market is 'freaking out'. He observes that financials are not showing stress; instead, they are at or near highs and continuing a series of higher highs and higher lows. This suggests the weakness in semiconductors is currently contained.

### 4. US 500 (S&P 500) (daily, weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped in a pullback in time, wide range
**Key Levels:** 7575 to 7600 resistance, 7600 massive call walls, 7300 and 7250 support
**Historical Comparison:** Compares the current dynamic (semis weak, broad market holding up) to the March 2000 dot-com top, where leaders like Cisco peaked before the S&P 500 rolled over.

The S&P 500 is described as being trapped in a wide range between 7250-7300 support and 7575-7600 resistance, with a massive call wall at 7600. He calls this a 'pullback in time' and does not view the chart as bearish, but rather volatile and consolidating. He notes the market followed the typical seasonal bullishness for the first half of July.

### 5. NASDAQ (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped within the range

Atkinson notes the NASDAQ had a 'pretty good weekly close' but remains trapped within its trading range. It was down about 1% on the day.

### 6. Dow (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

He describes the Dow as looking 'dull and boring', but clarifies that this is not necessarily a bad thing. The index is still making a series of higher highs and higher lows, which he views as a positive sign.

### 7. JP Morgan (JPM) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidating near the highs
**Key Levels:** near the highs

Mentioned in the context of upcoming bank earnings on Tuesday. The stock is consolidating near its highs, awaiting the earnings report as a catalyst.

### 8. Energy (XLE) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** slight structural change

Energy stocks have undergone a 'slight structural change', moving from lower lows to a higher high. Atkinson states it's the first time the sector has looked 'semibullish' since June. He also notes that energy stocks are holding up better than the price of oil barrels, which could suggest underlying strength.

### 9. Oil (Barrels) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** slight structural change
**Key Levels:** nearly 79 for Brent

The price of oil was up 3-4% over the weekend due to geopolitical news. Brent crude is approaching $79 and trying to make a higher high. He warns that barrels are a 'very dangerous' and political market.

### 10. ITB (Home Construction) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH

In response to a viewer question, he notes that home construction (ITB) has been under pressure for a couple of years and topped back in 2024. He links this to his view that the broader US housing market topped in 2022-2023, showing a level of stress that the bond market may not be fully appreciating.

### 11. Dow Jones Transportation (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH

He briefly mentions that the transportation index 'did actually get walloped', then uses Avis (CAR) as an example of the wild moves and subsequent collapse seen in some components.

### 12. SpaceX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lost its 150 base structure
**Key Levels:** 144 current price, 150 base (lost)

He points to the private market price of SpaceX, which has fallen to 144 after giving up its 150 base structure last week. He suggests this weakness could make it harder for other tech companies to IPO.

### 13. TSM (daily, weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** series of still higher highs and higher lows (daily)
**Key Levels:** 20 weekly moving average

TSM earnings on Thursday are a key event. While the daily chart still shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, Atkinson doesn't like the weekly chart, calling last week's close 'a little poor'. He identifies the 20-weekly moving average as an important level of support.

### 14. Netflix (NFLX) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs

Ahead of its earnings, Netflix is described as being in a series of lower lows and lower highs. He contrasts this with its massive rally up to 2025.

### 15. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** small time frame structure improvement, higher time frame still downward
**Key Levels:** 4200 support

Gold came down to a previous demand/support level at 4200, which he calls a 'pretty important level in the sand'. While the higher timeframe trend is still down, there is some structural improvement on smaller timeframes. The market is currently fighting over this zone.

### 16. Copper (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH

He notes that Copper has 'improved more than gold' and mentions its importance for the AI boom, referring to it as 'Dr. Copper'.

### 17. US Dollar (DXY) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** theoretically bullish on small time frames
**Key Levels:** 103.80 area (potential resistance)

The Dollar is holding within a range after closing above a previous supply area, making it 'theoretically bullish on small time frames'. He is watching for a break; a move higher could be very bad for commodities with little resistance until the 103.80 area.

### 18. 2-year yield (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH

He describes the 2-year yield as 'dull up' and says it 'doesn't look like it's turning around just yet'.

### 19. US30Y (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** still holding on to higher highs, higher lows
**Key Levels:** 5.08

The 30-year yield is at 5.08%, which he calls a 'pretty strong number'. The chart is still making higher highs and higher lows for now.

### 20. MAG 7 (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** inverted head and shoulders

The Magnificent 7 index started to pick up just before Meta's recent announcement. He notes the chart pattern 'looks like an inverted head and shoulders'.

### 21. Meta (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Took that higher high

Meta showed 'pretty decent strength' last week, taking out a higher high and helping to lift the MAG 7 index.

### 22. EWY (daily, weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 168 (weekly 20 moving average)

This is the US ETF for the South Korean market, which was down 8.1% in the pre-market. He notes that it is currently holding at its weekly 20 moving average around the 168 level, even though the underlying KOSPI index is weaker.

### 23. Hood (Robinhood) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** previous supply (resistance)

After a nice run since early June, Robinhood is now trading right into a 'previous supply' zone, which he identifies as technical resistance.

### 24. KRE (Regional Banks) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs, higher lows
**Key Levels:** back to those 22 levels

He points to the regional bank ETF to show that the broader market is healthy. It's in a series of higher highs and higher lows and is back to its 2022 levels, indicating the current sell-off is focused on semiconductors.

### 25. Bitcoin (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hugging that anchored VWAP

Bitcoin is 'hugging' an anchored VWAP on his chart, with multiple bounces but a failure to make higher highs each time. He describes it as 'barely holding on'.

### 26. Ethereum (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential double bottom, potential false break high
**Key Levels:** 1700

Ethereum is at a critical level after a failed rally attempt over the weekend. He notes the potential for a double bottom for bulls, but also the risk of a false breakout high for bears. The 1700 level is the key low to watch.

### 27. Oracle (ORCL) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** terrible trend
**Key Levels:** support

He calls Oracle a 'scary stock' with a 'gross chart' that has been 'absolutely flawed'. While it is down into a support level, the move has been aggressive on big volumes. He suspects the weakness is due to the company being overleveraged.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
Atkinson draws a significant historical analog between the current market and the March 2000 dot-com peak. He notes that back then, market leaders like Cisco topped out first while the broader S&P 500 held up for some time before eventually collapsing. This is similar to the current divergence where semiconductors are showing extreme weakness while financials and the broader indices remain relatively strong. He also discusses the nature of technology cycles, comparing the AI boom to the railroad or dot-com booms, which typically involve a phase of hype and overinvestment, followed by a bust, from which the true long-term winners emerge.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The main focus for the week is what happens in financials (earnings Tuesday) and hardware stocks (TSM earnings Thursday).
- A key test for the market is whether the semiconductor weakness is contained or if it proves to be systemic, which will be indicated by the performance of financials.
- A warning against blindly buying the dip in assets that are falling like a 'freight train' (e.g., KOSPI), stating they need to form some kind of price structure before a rebound is likely.
- He advises focusing on 'price action, data, and flows' rather than trying to out-guess Wall Street on geopolitical news or other narratives.
- Markets don't top on bad news; they top when the news can't get any better. The key question for the hardware sector is whether we have seen 'peak capital raising'.

## All Instruments Mentioned
KOSPI, TSM, SP500, Samsung, Hinx, Semiconductor SPY, Financials, S&P 500, Cisco, triple Q's, NASDAQ, Dow, XLF, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, City, Netflix, XBI, Software, Energy, Oil, VIX, ITB, Dow Jones Transportation, Avis, SpaceX, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Copper, US Dollar, 2-year yield, US30Y, MAG 7, Meta, EWY, Hood, KRE, Ethereum, Oracle, ABV, Jaled, Brent, US oil, IGB, Novo Nordisk

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-18 02:06:13*