# Wall Streets Favourite Stocks Enter Bear Markets…
**Date:** 2026-07-14  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbLJ-ZielHA)

## Main Thesis
The market is undergoing a significant rotation out of over-extended semiconductor and hardware stocks, which are experiencing sharp sell-offs, and into energy, which is rallying on geopolitical news and pre-existing technical strength. While the broader market remains resilient, upcoming bank earnings will be critical to gauge economic health and whether the current weakness spreads.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Cosby (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Atkinson mentions that the 'Cosby' is down negative 30%, indicating that something significant is happening in the markets.

### 2. Crude Oil (US Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Break up and close above the 20 moving average, first time frame structure changes, potential island reversal

Crude oil rallied significantly, with some markets up 9% in 24 hours, driven by geopolitical news regarding a potential US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Atkinson notes the price action was already showing strength for 1.5 weeks before the news. The chart has broken and closed above the daily 20 moving average, showing structure changes. The real concern is that long-dated futures are also spiking, suggesting the market expects this to be a sustained issue.

### 3. TSM (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

TSM reported strong preliminary earnings with 68% year-on-year revenue growth for June, but the stock is described as 'flaky at best' because expectations were already very high. The options market is expecting a large move of 6.5% to 12% post-earnings.

### 4. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Breakdown below put level leading to negative gamma
**Key Levels:** $150 put the other day level, $138 approximately an overnight trade, $135

Used as an example of volatile US IPOs. The stock dropped after breaking the '$150 put the other day level', which led to negative gamma. It is now trading at approximately $138.

### 5. Heinix (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Mentioned as another recent IPO showing 'extreme volatility' in its first few days of trading, similar to SpaceX.

### 6. Yields (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

Yields are described as confusing but are in a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. They have disconnected from the 'true inflation index' but are moving with rate hike expectations. The bond market is not yet panicking.

### 7. Junk Bonds vs Corporate Bonds (LQD) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Junk bonds rising against LQD
**Historical Comparison:** This trend has been in place since 2020.

The spread of junk bonds versus high-grade corporate bonds (LQD) shows that the market doesn't seem concerned about taking on risk. Confidence in taking on debt is higher now than it was leading into 2020, possibly due to belief in a 'Fed put'.

### 8. Long-dated Oil Futures (June 2027) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Spiking towards previous highs
**Key Levels:** around 7240

The futures barrels for dates far out, like June 2027, are also spiking and are back to around 72.40. Atkinson states that if these long-dated barrels break to new highs, it's a sign the market expects the energy issue to be prolonged.

### 9. Semiconductors (ETF) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

A semiconductor ETF saw a record $5.4 billion inflow on one day last week. However, this was not accompanied by large dark pool or block activity, suggesting it may have been driven by smaller retail traders 'buying the dip', which is a concern.

### 10. DRAM (ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** a level of potential support/demand
**Historical Comparison:** The last biggest transaction happened close to the resistance high and in hindsight looked like a sell.

This relatively new semiconductor ETF saw large transactions come through at a level of potential support/demand. It's unclear if this is a buy or sell, but it's a notable flow at a key level.

### 11. DRM 2X (Leveraged ETF) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

A 2x leveraged semiconductor ETF that only launched in late June. Anyone who bought the top is down about 57%, highlighting the extreme risk and leverage being used in the sector.

### 12. Energy Stocks (XLE) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Island reversal

Energy stocks like XLE, ZOP, and oil services were the best performers. XLE specifically showed a potential island reversal pattern off the lows (a gap down, a period of consolidation, then a gap up).

### 13. Software (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The software sector 'held its own' amid the sell-off in other tech areas.

### 14. XBI (Biotech) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Going down and stabilizing

After an incredible run, XBI continued to sell off. It is now trying to stabilize after the decline.

### 15. Healthcare (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Sideways

The healthcare sector has been trading sideways for the last week or so.

### 16. RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Holding support
**Key Levels:** daily 20

The equal-weighted S&P 500 is still holding on to the daily 20 moving average. This shows that the broader market is not freaking out and the weakness is concentrated in certain sectors.

### 17. QQQ (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Diamond pattern

Atkinson notes that many people see a diamond pattern on the QQQ chart, though he is not a huge fan of the pattern. The main concern is the appearance of large rejection candles.

### 18. Apple (AAPL) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Huge daily rejection near the peak
**Historical Comparison:** Apple often doesn't perform well on new highs after it has been in a sideways market.

Apple's chart shows a huge daily rejection candle near the peak. Atkinson mentions that historically, Apple can struggle after making marginal new highs following a period of sideways action.

### 19. SOXX (Semiconductors) (weekly, daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Nasty looking rejection candle
**Key Levels:** 50 exponential daily moving average

The weekly chart shows a 'really nasty looking rejection candle' which typically leads to further lows. On the daily chart, it is barely holding on to the 50 exponential moving average support. The freight train is still to the downside until a basing structure forms.

### 20. Semiconductors to SPY Ratio (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Huge rejection down

Referred to as the 'backbone of the market', this ratio chart shows a 'huge rejection down' on the weekly, indicating significant underperformance and weakness from market leadership.

### 21. S&P 500 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Trapped below options resistance
**Key Levels:** 7575 to 7600 resistance, 7,300 support

The S&P 500 is a different story from semiconductors, as it remains close to its all-time highs. The advance-decline line is still rising. It is currently trapped just underneath the key options call wall of 7575 to 7600, with major put support around 7,300.

### 22. XLF (Financials) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Dull market, barely making higher highs
**Key Levels:** 324 support

The financials are under focus ahead of earnings. The market is described as 'dull', slowly making higher highs with no lower lows. A loss of the 324 level would create a lower low and be a bearish signal.

### 23. JP Morgan (JPM) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Dull market

Considered the most important bank to watch. It is in a 'dull market', slowly going along, making higher highs.

### 24. US Dollar (DXY) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Bouncing off the daily 20 moving average
**Key Levels:** 10140 resistance

The US Dollar continues to bounce off the daily 20 moving average but has not yet made a new high past the 101.40 level. Its strength is putting pressure on gold.

### 25. Gold (daily, higher time frames)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Downward trend line

Gold continues to struggle around the daily 20 moving average and a previous demand level from October, pressured by a stronger dollar. It's often used as a liquidation tool for more leveraged positions. On higher time frames, it remains in a downward trend line.

### 26. Copper (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Doing the opposite of gold, Copper is going up. As 'Dr. Copper', its strength is seen as a positive sign for the economy and the AI buildout, suggesting spending is still occurring.

### 27. Meta (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Mentioned in the context of a massive private capex 'spendfest' on AI. Meta is spending huge amounts ($50 billion) and may now need to raise capital from the market, driven by fear of missing out.

### 28. Ethereum (higher time frame, short time frame)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Consolidating near the peak
**Key Levels:** at that resistance

Ethereum is consolidating near a resistance level. A break above this peak could be strong. The higher time frame trend is still down, but short-term structure has shown improvement.

### 29. Bitcoin (higher time frame)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Consolidating

Bitcoin has been holding okay and is just consolidating. The higher time frame trend remains down.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a rotational regime, with significant outflows from prior leaders like semiconductors and hardware and inflows into energy. This is not yet a broad market panic, as evidenced by the resilience of the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) and the bond market's continued appetite for risk (junk vs. corporate spread). There is a massive private capex cycle underway, particularly in AI, driven by companies' fear of missing out. The analysis emphasizes that markets price events 12-18 months in advance, and the current period from July to October is historically prone to volatility, especially leading into a midterm election.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Semiconductors are the ones to watch; if the semiconductor trade is lost, it's a major problem for the market's backbone.
- A panic in the big banks would be a major concern for the economy, so their upcoming earnings are critical.
- Watch for a break below 324 on XLF (financials) as a bearish signal of a lower low.
- If long-dated oil futures break to new highs, it would signal a prolonged energy problem.
- Volatility is expected to remain elevated from mid-July through the earning season and into the October pre-election period.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Cosby, Crude Oil, TSM, SpaceX, Heinix, Yields, Semiconductors, City, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Netflix, DRAM, ZOP, XLE, Oil Services, Utilities, Hardware, Solar, Clean Energy, Junk Bonds, Corporate Bonds, LQD, Long-dated Oil Futures (June 2027), DRM 2X, Software, XBI, Healthcare, RSP, QQQ, Apple, SOXX, SPY, S&P 500, Dow, Russell, XLF, US Dollar, Gold, Copper, Meta, Ethereum, Bitcoin

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-19 02:03:39*