# Did Wall Street Just Trap Retail Investors? **Date:** 2026-07-15 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Trso7W0ahok) ## Main Thesis Earnings season has kicked off strong, particularly for banks, suggesting a bullish backdrop supported by debt creation and deregulation. However, the market is experiencing significant rotation and volatility, with the AI CapEx theme remaining dominant, while key sectors like semiconductors are at a critical inflection point after a major sell-off. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. IBM (None) **Bias:** BEARISH IBM experienced its biggest one-day sell-off and biggest dollar drop ever, falling 25%. This is attributed to a movement of budgets away from enterprise software and towards AI. Dark pool activity showed massive selling transactions in the stock over the last couple of sessions prior to the drop. ### 2. SK Hynix (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The stock moved up over 27% in one session after dropping 15.4% upon its IPO. The rally was fueled by upgrades from Wall Street, with Barclays citing memory shortages, HBM strength, pricing power, and potential buybacks. It's noted as an example of euphoria and a stock that has become popular for leveraged trading among retail investors. ### 3. USO (Oil) (small time frame) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** change of trend About a week ago, massive dark pool transactions were observed near the lows. This activity led into a small time frame change of trend, with price action moving higher since. ### 4. DRAM (ETF) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Experienced the fifth largest transaction ever on its exchange. It held at a support level, similar to SOX, and was followed by a huge rally pump in semiconductors over the last 24 hours. ### 5. Silver ETF (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** blow-off top Citing a chart from Tavi Costa, Atkinson notes that after a 'blow-off top' in January, ETF flows absolutely collapsed. Recently, there has been a small pickup in flows, suggesting a potential change after a period of extreme negative sentiment. ### 6. DXY (US Dollar Index) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** upward trend The dollar has been holding the 20 moving average on the daily chart. It is generally holding a higher time frame break and is in an upward trend. If it surpasses certain levels, it could move towards the next supply zone. ### 7. US 30Y Yield (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** upward trend **Key Levels:** 5.11 The 30-year yield is at 5.11 and continues to be in an upward trend, suggesting the market is ignoring the recent low CPI print. This is a key chart to pay attention to. ### 8. US 2Y Yield (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The two-year yield is described as being 'dull and grinding higher' with no significant changes to its trend. ### 9. JP Morgan (JPM) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs and higher/equal lows After very good earnings, the weekly chart shows a market making a series of higher highs and higher or equal lows. It is not showing weakness yet, reflecting a 'dull market' that is 'alive and well' due to debt creation and deregulation. ### 10. XLF (Financial Sector ETF) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The financial sector ETF managed to hold a decent candle for the day, indicating stability. ### 11. KRE (Regional Banking ETF) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The regional banking ETF rebalanced and moved back up. The earnings season has not shown weakness in the banks. ### 12. Junk vs Corporate Bonds (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows This indicator shows a market slowly making a series of higher highs and higher lows. It suggests the bond market is not concerned about the types of debt out there and people are willing to lend, which is a positive sign for risk appetite. ### 13. SOX (Semiconductor Index) (daily, smaller time frames) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs (on smaller time frame) **Key Levels:** 550 support, 600 resistance The index held at a key zone which is both the 50 moving average on the daily and the major net expiration put support level at 550. On smaller time frames, it is still in a downtrend. A break of the 600 psychological level could get semiconductors 'fired up again'. ### 14. US Oil (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 90 a barrel resistance Described as the 'anti-market' because if it rises too much, the VIX will rise. It has closed above the daily 20 moving average, confirming a structural change that began in early July. It is in a 'middling zone' and could potentially get back to $90 a barrel. ### 15. Energy Sector (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The energy sector had another okay session, moving up and showing strength for the first time in a while. ### 16. Semiconductor/SPY Ratio (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** .75 support Referred to as 'semiconductor spy' and the 'backbone of this market'. If the .75 level is lost, it would signal a loss of leadership from semiconductors. It has held up over the last 24 hours, supporting the market for now. ### 17. RSP (Equal-Weighted S&P 500) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows The equal-weighted market is still in a 'dull' trend, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. ### 18. Dow Jones (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows Described as 'still dull' and holding a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicating no systemic weakness. ### 19. Russell 2000 (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows The Russell is 'still just basically holding higher highs and higher lows', which does not suggest a market with systemic problems. ### 20. QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) (monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** range-bound **Key Levels:** 700 put support, 734 call wall **Historical Comparison:** similar trap kind of concept that it what happened in 2020 The Nasdaq is trapped within a range, with put supports around 700 and a call wall around 734. This sideways action is typical of a midterm election year. On the monthly timeframe, it is still making higher highs and higher lows. ### 21. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs, higher lows **Key Levels:** 7575 resistance, 7535 support (zero DTE), 7300 support (net expirations) The market remains relatively strong, making higher highs and higher lows with robust earnings so far. The advance-decline line is going up, showing broadening participation. It recently tested 7575. The main put support from all expirations is quite far away at 7300. ### 22. Gold (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 4200 resistance, 3900 support Gold is barely holding its demand support zone. The daily 20 moving average continues to act as resistance, holding it down. Key levels to watch are 4200 and the reaction zone around 3900. ### 23. Copper (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher high Referred to as 'Dr. Copper', it is rallying and has made a new higher high. This is seen as a sign of economic strength and is not pointing towards a bearish market. ### 24. Ethereum (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** double bottom **Key Levels:** 2,200 target Ethereum has looked stronger than Bitcoin in recent sessions. It is attempting to form a double bottom pattern, which, if successful, has a technical price target of around 2,200. ### 25. Bitcoin (daily, weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** double bottom (implied) **Key Levels:** 67.5k resistance, 67k resistance After a period of negative news and 'death crosses', Bitcoin has found a key level and is seeing a reaction. It managed to close to a new high but is not yet through the 67k-67.5k resistance area. The weekly chart closed with a nice wick and is holding well. ### 26. Cybersecurity (HACK) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout The cybersecurity sector has 'gone wild bonkers', rallying 44% since its breakout. Atkinson warns that in previous times when cybersecurity has had such an aggressive rally, it has often topped out. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is operating under a dominant 'AI CapEx spend' theme, where capital is rotating out of areas like enterprise software and into the AI ecosystem. It's the start of earnings season in a midterm election year, which typically brings a sideways grind and a pickup in volatility in Q3. Deregulation is fueling debt creation, which is supporting bank earnings and the broader market. There's a notable intermarket dynamic where rising oil is seen as a risk to equities ('anti-market'), and software has been acting as an 'anti-market' to semiconductors. Retail investor behavior is shifting towards leveraged single-stock products, amplifying moves in volatile names. ## Key Calls & Predictions - A warning that when Wall Street analysts are continuously upgrading stocks, investors should be most cautious as a top could be forming. - The current market weakness is not systemic but is concentrated in the semiconductor and hardware sectors. - A break above 600 on the SOX (semiconductor index) could reignite the rally in that key sector. - A loss of the .75 level on the 'semiconductor spy' ratio would signal that semiconductors have lost their market leadership role. - The aggressive, 'bonkers' rally in cybersecurity stocks is a potential warning sign, as similar moves in the past have preceded a top in the sector. - Expect volatility to pick up in Q3, which is typical for a midterm election year, often after an initial rally into earnings. - The market is currently questioning if the 'bubble run' in semiconductors is over, but price action, data, and flows must be watched over personal beliefs. ## All Instruments Mentioned IBM, SK Hynix, USO, DRAM, CPI, Silver ETF, Bitcoin, Ethereum, DXY, US 30Y Yield, US 2Y Yield, JP Morgan, XLF, KRE, Junk vs Corporate Bonds, SOX, US Oil, Energy Sector, Semiconductor/SPY Ratio, RSP, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, QQQ, S&P 500, Gold, Silver, Copper, Ethereum vs Bitcoin, Software, Cybersecurity, HACK, HACK/SPY, TSMC, Netflix --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-18 02:03:48*