# Did things just get worse for Investors? **Date:** 2026-07-16 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_AvwktJIAg) ## Main Thesis Risks are building for over-leveraged retail traders, highlighted by mass liquidations in South Korea, while a key divergence emerges between strong Magnificent 7 stocks and weakening semiconductors, which could be a major warning sign for the market's future direction. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. South Korean Market (KOSPI) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward channel Atkinson highlights the massive liquidations of leveraged retail accounts in South Korea. He shows the KOSPI chart is in a clear downward channel, making a series of lower lows and lower highs. He has an alert set to watch for a higher high, which would signal a potential change in trend. The market is described as very volatile, with 6-7% moves in a session, as Wall Street seems to be liquidating retail positions. ### 2. High Beta Factor vs SOX Index (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** factor correlation **Historical Comparison:** similar to 2000s, post-GFC, and 2020-21, where high correlation preceded sideways markets or corrections of over 15% A macro chart shows a high correlation between the high beta factor and the SOX index. Historically, when this correlation has been this high, markets have either gone sideways for a period or entered into bear markets or significant corrections. This suggests the market may be about to turn or show less resilience. ### 3. Consecutive trading days within 5% of an all-time high (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** distribution pattern **Historical Comparison:** In previous times, long periods near all-time highs without making a new high have often been distribution patterns, leading to a sideways or down market. An exception was noted in 2024. Atkinson discusses a chart showing the market has spent a long time within 5% of its all-time high without making a new one. He suggests this is often a distribution pattern, especially deeper into a bull cycle, which he believes we are in now. ### 4. DRAM (None) **Bias:** BEARISH He notes a 'monstrous transaction' came through in DRAM, but the market subsequently 'trashed itself' and fell back to the lows. This price action does not confirm the large transaction as a buy, suggesting the downtrend in hardware/semiconductors continues. ### 5. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 135 IPO price Atkinson discusses the SpaceX IPO, noting it was one of the most hyped. The stock has now come all the way back to its IPO price of 135 after a significant rally. He uses this as an example of Wall Street having a tough time holding up rallies. ### 6. Copper vs Gold Ratio (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** divergence He discusses a chart showing copper is rallying while gold is languishing. This divergence, he notes, is often considered an inflationary signal, suggesting that interest rates may need to be hiked or stay higher for longer. ### 7. Silver/Gold ETFs (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** capitulation Citing a chart from Tavi Costa, Atkinson points out that asset flows in silver and gold ETFs are 'dropping through the floor'. He interprets this as a sign of possible capitulation and fear returning to the metals markets. ### 8. TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Ahead of earnings, Atkinson notes the options market is expecting a plus or minus 6.5% move. He observes that historically, the market has not necessarily reacted well to TSM's results one day after the report. ### 9. Netflix (NFLX) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Mentioned as one of the biggest earnings reports in the next 24 hours. The options market expects a 7.87% move. ### 10. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** seasonality **Historical Comparison:** Follows a typical midterm election year pattern: volatility early, a calm into July/August, then things get 'crazy' into October/November. He discusses VIX seasonality, which typically shows a calm period in summer before volatility picks up in the fall. He notes that this year seems to be following that seasonal pattern. ### 11. Semiconductors to SPY Ratio (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 50 exponential moving average support Atkinson calls this his 'main key read' for market leadership. The ratio is under continuous pressure but has so far held the 50 exponential moving average, which he calls the 'backbone of the market'. Whether this support holds is critical. ### 12. Japanese 1-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakout He shows a chart of the Japanese 1-year yield 'absolutely flying'. He connects this to rising borrowing costs which can have a massive impact on leveraged positions globally. ### 13. Junk vs LQD (JNK/LQD Ratio) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He uses this ratio to gauge risk appetite in the bond market. He notes it is still making higher highs, which indicates that the bond market is not currently pricing in significant risk. This is a sign of resilience. ### 14. Magnificent 7 (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout The index broke to a new higher high, driven by strong moves in its components ahead of earnings. This strength is currently supporting the broader market indices. ### 15. Apple (AAPL) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He notes that Apple 'completely destroyed' a prior shooting star candle, showing strong bullish price action. ### 16. Amazon (AMZN) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout Amazon broke through a high, making a higher high. He called it a 'pretty big break up' in terms of its daily close. ### 17. Google (GOOGL) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Google is currently 'putting pressure on that resistance side'. ### 18. Nvidia (NVDA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He mentions that Nvidia is 'coming up to critical resistance'. ### 19. US Oil (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** upward trend Oil is still holding up and maintaining its upward trend amid geopolitical tensions. ### 20. US 2K (Russell 2000) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He describes the Russell 2000 as 'still dull and up', indicating a slow, grinding uptrend. ### 21. Dow Jones (DJIA) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Similar to the Russell 2000, the Dow is 'still dull and up'. He notes it's becoming interesting again as a read on the 'old economy'. ### 22. QQQ (Nasdaq 100) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** diamond pattern, consolidation He notes that most people see the QQQ in a 'diamond pattern' and that it is consolidating and 'trapped'. A breakout from this consolidation could be explosive. He mentions a put support level, but the number is garbled in the transcript. ### 23. SPX (S&P 500) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The S&P 500 is described as 'slowly climbing that wall of worry' in a 'dull market'. It continues to see more advancing stocks than declining ones. He mentions major call wall and put levels, but the numbers are garbled in the transcript. ### 24. Copper (small time frame) **Bias:** BULLISH Copper is improving, making a series of higher highs and higher lows on the small time frame. ### 25. Gold (daily, weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend line Gold is struggling at a downward trend line and the daily 20 moving average. He states it is at a 'really important inflection point'. He mentions specific price levels for resistance and support, but the numbers (4200, 3400) are clearly mis-transcribed and not reflective of gold's actual price. ### 26. Ethereum (ETH) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** double bottom **Key Levels:** 2100 supply/target Ethereum has formed a potential double bottom, showing strength. A technical target based on the pattern's height projects to around the 2100 supply zone, which also aligns with the weekly 20 moving average, a historical mean-reversion level for ETH. ### 27. Bitcoin (BTC) (small time frame) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 67,000 resistance Bitcoin has improved slightly but remains technically in a series of lower lows and lower highs as it has not broken the 67,000 high. The small time frame showed signs of recovery starting July 1st. He notes that the price action has shown strength, with big rallies off the lows (wicks). ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a late-stage bull cycle, following the typical seasonality of a midterm election year (Q1 drop, rally to new high, summer chop). A key intermarket divergence is present: the Copper/Gold ratio suggests inflationary pressures and higher rates, while the Junk/LQD bond ratio shows no fear. The most critical theme is the split between strong 'backbone' markets (Mag 7, Dow) and weakening leadership sectors like semiconductors, which could be a leading indicator of a market turn. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Warning about the extreme risks in leveraged ETFs, as demonstrated by the mass liquidations of 1.2 million retail accounts in South Korea. - The ongoing weakness in semiconductors is a 'pretty big warning sign' that confidence in future economic spending may be deteriorating. - Upcoming earnings for the Magnificent 7 are critical; if they disappoint, the entire market index could be dragged down significantly due to their heavy weighting. - Gold is at a 'really important inflection point' and its next move could have broader implications. - Expect high volatility during this earnings season, particularly in large-cap tech and semiconductor stocks. ## All Instruments Mentioned Leveraged ETFs, KOSPI, SOX Index, DRAM, USO, SpaceX, XME, Copper, Gold, Silver ETFs, Gold ETFs, TSM, Netflix, VIX, Bitcoin, High Beta Index, Semiconductors to SPY Ratio, Japanese 1-Year Yield, Junk vs LQD, Magnificent 7, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, US Oil, Energy Stocks, US 2K, Dow Jones, QQQ, SPX, Ethereum, KWEB --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-18 02:02:39*