# This Is Pretty Weird... SP500, Nasdaq, SPCX, TSM
**Date:** 2026-07-17  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9hX43795bM)

## Main Thesis
The market is exhibiting strange, contradictory behavior with a severe 'sell the fact' collapse in semiconductors, while financials, regional banks, and defensive sectors show strength. This divergence, along with warning signs from the South Korean market and the Nasdaq testing a critical options support level, suggests a period of high instability and a potential major market move.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** underneath 127
**Historical Comparison:** A study on recent IPOs found that when they fall below their IPO price, only 36% are back above it 3 weeks later.

SpaceX is trading below its IPO price of 127 following a Starship test flight ignition failure. Atkinson references a study indicating that stocks in this situation often struggle to recover quickly, with only a 36% chance of regaining the IPO price within three weeks.

### 2. Google Trends - 'stock market bubble' & 'AI bubble' (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Peaking search interest
**Key Levels:** 100 level
**Historical Comparison:** Current search levels have surpassed the previous peak seen around August 2025.

Atkinson notes that Google Trends searches for 'stock market bubble' and 'AI bubble' have hit new all-time highs (a '100 level'). He suggests this may not signal an immediate top but could indicate Wall Street is liquidating positions before a potential future rally, making timing difficult.

### 3. Semiconductors (general) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** cluster volatility near highs
**Historical Comparison:** Historical studies show that high cluster volatility and +/- 3% days in semiconductors near highs often lead to a period of instability, a sideways market, or an absolute peak.

Atkinson discusses data showing that the current high cluster volatility in semiconductors near market highs is historically a warning sign. Such periods have often preceded more instability, sideways action, or even a market top.

### 4. Hindenburg Omen (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** 16 clusters all happening at the same time
**Key Levels:** 16
**Historical Comparison:** He states he doesn't think there have ever been this many triggers so quickly in the past, and such clusters have sometimes occurred at market peaks.

An unusually high number of Hindenburg Omens (16) have clustered together. While not a precise timing tool, Atkinson views this as a significant warning signal of market euphoria and a 'cautionary tale' that has previously coincided with market peaks.

### 5. Netflix (NFLX) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Downtrend, making new lows
**Key Levels:** $67 in after hour trade, 61 potential target
**Historical Comparison:** The stock topped out back in 2025 and has been weak since.

Netflix plunged 9% in extended hours to $67, continuing a long-term downtrend. Atkinson suggests it could be heading towards a high-volume area around $61 and uses it as an example to advise waiting for a confirmed recovery ('buy the V') rather than trying to 'buy the dip'.

### 6. SOX Index (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** High beta factor correlation
**Historical Comparison:** Historically, when the high beta factor correlation gets this high, markets have tended to go sideways or peak out.

The SOX index is showing a very high beta factor correlation. Atkinson notes that, historically, such high levels have often been followed by periods of sideways consolidation or a market peak.

### 7. DRAM (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Large transactions followed by a lower low

A chart showed a large cluster of transactions in DRAM. However, the price has since made a new lower low, making the direction uncertain until a price turnaround occurs.

### 8. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Prolonged consolidation near all-time high
**Key Levels:** within a 5% all-time high
**Historical Comparison:** Historically, this often leads to weakness or fewer gains, but there are outliers.

The S&P 500 has spent a long time trading within 5% of its all-time high. While this can often precede weakness, Atkinson notes there are historical exceptions, so the direction is not certain.

### 9. Copper vs. Gold (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Divergence

A divergence is noted where Copper is rising while Gold is struggling. Atkinson interprets this as Copper signaling continued debt creation and GDP growth, while Gold is not participating.

### 10. Silver ETF (SLV) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Collapsed ETF capital flows

Capital flows into Silver ETFs have collapsed, indicating strong negative sentiment in the metal.

### 11. VIX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Seasonally prone to rise in July
**Key Levels:** 16.7

The VIX is at 16.7, which is still very low despite the sell-off in semiconductors. Atkinson notes that July is seasonally a period of rising volatility, which appears to be starting, but the low level of the VIX is part of the 'weird' market dynamic.

### 12. Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) Flows (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Flows improving

After months of 'horrendous' negative flows, capital flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum have improved over the last 5-7 days. The assets are holding up relatively well.

### 13. Regional Banks (KRE) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Made a new high

Atkinson highlights the strength in regional banks, with KRE making a new high. He sees this as a sign that the current market turmoil is not a systemic failure, contrasting sharply with semiconductor weakness.

### 14. JP Morgan (JPM) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** New rally high

Similar to KRE, JP Morgan is showing strength and making a new rally high, which Atkinson interprets as a sign the broader market is not in a systemic crisis.

### 15. RSP (Equal-Weighted S&P 500) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Holding the daily 20 moving average

The equal-weighted S&P 500 is holding its daily 20 moving average, indicating broad market strength outside of the troubled semiconductor sector. This is another sign that a systemic failure is not yet occurring.

### 16. TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Testing the weekly 20 moving average
**Key Levels:** 400, 398
**Historical Comparison:** This level has acted as support a couple of times during the recent rally.

Despite good earnings, TSM is selling off and testing its weekly 20 moving average, a critical support level that has held previously. It traded down to around 398-400, right into this key zone.

### 17. Kospi (4-hour, weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Downtrend channel, series of lower lows and lower highs, technical bear market

The South Korean Kospi index is presented as a key leading indicator. It is down 30% from its peak, in a technical bear market, and trading within a clear downtrend channel with no signs of a bottom yet.

### 18. Japanese 1-Year Yield (JP01Y) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Pushing up

The Japanese 1-year yield is rising, putting significant pressure on the Bank of Japan and the carry trade as the yen weakens.

### 19. USD/JPY (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Uptrend
**Key Levels:** 162

The US dollar has strengthened significantly against the yen, hitting 162, which is increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan regarding the carry trade.

### 20. US Dollar Index (DXY) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Series of higher lows and higher highs, but lost the daily 20 MA. Potential Wyckoff bottom or flag pattern.

The US Dollar is consolidating near resistance. While it maintains a bullish structure of higher lows and highs, it recently lost the daily 20 moving average, making its next move uncertain.

### 21. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Series of lower lows, lower highs. Hovering at potential support.

Gold remains in a downtrend of lower lows and lower highs, having failed to reclaim its daily 20 moving average. It is hovering at a potential support zone but has shown no signs of reversal.

### 22. SanDisk (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Brutally sold, now in a 'hidden demand' zone
**Historical Comparison:** Price has returned to late May levels.

SanDisk is an example of the brutal semiconductor sell-off, down 40% from its peak. It has fallen back to a 'hidden demand' zone from late May, which represents a critical decision point.

### 23. Meta (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Going ballistic to the way up, almost 24%

Atkinson contrasts the weakness in semiconductors with the immense strength in Meta, which is up almost 24%, highlighting a major divergence within the tech sector.

### 24. SOX (Options) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Breakdown below put support, potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 550 put support, 520 level

The SOX index has broken below the 550 put support level, potentially targeting the 520 area. While some may see a head and shoulders pattern, Atkinson cautions that a significant demand zone exists that could provide support.

### 25. Semiconductors to SPY Ratio (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Barely holding on at a critical level

The ratio of semiconductors to the S&P 500 is at a very critical support level and is 'barely holding on.' This is a key indicator for market direction.

### 26. US Oil (WTI) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Sideways consolidation ('a pits')

After a strong rally, US oil is in a sideways consolidation phase to reset indicators. It does not look weak and is being supported by geopolitical tensions.

### 27. XLV (Health Care Sector) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Potential island reversal

The defensive Health Care sector (XLV) is showing signs of strength with a potential island reversal pattern, indicating a rotation into defensive assets.

### 28. XLP (Consumer Staples Sector) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Attempting to break out

The Consumer Staples sector (XLP) is also showing strength and attempting to break out, another sign of a potential defensive rotation.

### 29. XLP to SPY Ratio (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Hovering, no new breakout

The ratio of XLP to SPY has been flat. Despite individual defensive sectors moving, this ratio has not broken out, suggesting it's too early to declare a full defensive rotation by Wall Street.

### 30. US 30 (Dow Jones) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Holding relatively well

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is holding up well despite the turmoil in tech-heavy indices.

### 31. US 2K (Russell 2000) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Holding series of higher highs, higher lows

The Russell 2000 is also holding up well and maintaining its uptrend structure, illustrating the 'tale of two markets'.

### 32. Nasdaq (Options) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Testing the put wall
**Key Levels:** 700 put wall, 695 overnight options low

The Nasdaq is at a critical options level, with a major put wall at 700. A break below this level could trigger a 'waterfall effect' or a fear-driven sell-off.

### 33. Nasdaq (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Series of lower highs, pressuring lows

The Nasdaq chart shows a series of lower highs. Atkinson emphasizes the importance of the weekly close, as a close at current levels would be the lowest weekly close of the recent period, a bearish signal.

### 34. S&P 500 (SPX) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Trading range near all-time highs

In contrast to the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 is near its all-time highs and in a trading range. The advance-decline line is positive, but it is sitting on an options support level that needs to hold.

### 35. Silver (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Made a lower low

Silver has made a new lower low, confirming weakness in precious metals and reinforcing the view to watch Gold as the primary indicator.

### 36. Ethereum (ETH) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Potential double bottom

Ethereum is holding up surprisingly well and is showing a potential double bottom formation, suggesting it could be finding support.

### 37. Bitcoin (BTC) vs KWEB (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Correlation
**Historical Comparison:** This correlation has been observed since around March of 2025.

An interesting correlation between Bitcoin and the Chinese internet ETF, KWEB, has been observed since March 2025.

### 38. Bitcoin (BTC) (higher time frames)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** No change of trend to upside
**Key Levels:** 67,000

On higher time frames, Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a trend change to the upside, as it remains below the key 67,000 level. However, it is showing some relative strength in the short term.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a divergent, rotational regime, described as a 'tale of two markets'. There is a severe, concentrated sell-off in the semiconductor and high-beta tech sectors, which appears to be a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' event on strong earnings. In contrast, other parts of the market, including financials (JPM), regional banks (KRE), the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), and defensive sectors (XLV, XLP), are showing significant strength. This indicates the weakness is not yet systemic. Additionally, the South Korean market (Kospi) is acting as a potential negative leading indicator, and the carry trade is under pressure from rising Japanese yields.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The Nasdaq is at a critical inflection point at the 700 options put wall; a break below could trigger a 'waterfall effect'.
- The severe sell-off in semiconductors, despite good earnings, is a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' scenario.
- The South Korean market (Kospi) should be watched closely as a potential leading indicator for broader market trouble.
- The current market weakness is not a systemic failure yet, as evidenced by strength in banks (KRE, JPM) and the equal-weighted S&P (RSP).
- It is better to 'react, don't predict' by waiting for a confirmed price recovery rather than trying to buy the dip in falling assets like Netflix.
- The upcoming weekly close for the Nasdaq is extremely important and could set the tone for the next move.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SpaceX, TSMC, SK Hynix, Marvell, Western Digital, SanDisk, Mag 7, Netflix, WTI crude, Core Weave, Semiconductors, Qs, SOX, S&P 500, DRAM, KOSPI, Copper, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, KRE, JP Morgan, RSP, TSM, JP01Y, Treasuries, US Dollar, Meta, XLV, XLP, Utilities, US 30, US 2K, Nasdaq, VIX, KWEB

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-19 02:02:33*