# Wall Street Is At It Again... Are YOU Watching This? **Date:** 2026-07-19 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ti9qWDdEHg) ## Main Thesis A severe sell-off in semiconductors, driven by fears of peak earnings and insider selling, has brought the sector to critical support levels. This is contrasted with the relative strength in the broader market, suggesting a potential rotation rather than a systemic collapse, with upcoming tech earnings being crucial for the next move. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Semiconductors (General) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Capitulation / Blanket Sale **Historical Comparison:** Similar to 2021 when insiders sold and earnings were upgraded before a major sell-off. Also compared to historical sell-offs going back to the 1990s. Atkinson highlights a 'blanket sale' in semiconductors, with 0% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average, indicating capitulation. He cites data suggesting an 81% chance of a bullish market two weeks later, but a poor outlook 9-12 months out. He draws a parallel to 2021, where insiders sold heavily while analysts upgraded earnings, just before the sector sold off, suggesting Wall Street may be sniffing out peak earnings again. ### 2. VIXM (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Large dark pool/sweep transactions **Historical Comparison:** Similar large transactions were seen before the 2024 yen crisis and a 2026 sell-off. He notes large transactions (dark pools and sweeps) have been seen in VIXM, which historically have preceded periods of market volatility, such as the 2024 yen crisis. This suggests potential for more volatility ahead. ### 3. VO (Vanguard Midcaps) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Large transactions (number 2 and 4 largest) **Historical Comparison:** The number one largest transaction occurred in 2021 before the market topped out and sold off. Atkinson points out that the 2nd and 4th largest transactions on record for VO have recently occurred. He compares this to the largest transaction in 2021, which preceded a market top, suggesting that even though the broader market hasn't fallen, some large, potentially cautionary, transactions are happening. ### 4. Technology Sector (PE Ratio) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Citing a Duality Research chart, Atkinson notes the technology sector is trading 18% below its 5-year average PE ratio. He questions if this means tech is cheap or if Wall Street is pricing in a problem, suggesting a potential 'no more good news' scenario where markets top when news can't get any better. ### 5. TSM (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Testing key moving average support **Key Levels:** 20 weekly moving average TSM is described as battling the 'most important level,' the 20-weekly moving average, which he calls 'mean reversion.' The market has bounced off this level three times and is now testing it for a fourth time. He also mentions it's battling an important options level. ### 6. Software Sector (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Stabilizing and outperforming semiconductors Despite negative press from outlets like Barron's, Atkinson notes that software stocks have been stabilizing and improving against semiconductors since June. This suggests a rotation is occurring as investors may be recognizing that some of these businesses have moats. ### 7. RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Series of higher highs and higher lows, but now showing a lower high **Key Levels:** 20 daily support The equal-weight S&P 500 has been holding up well, bouncing off the 20 daily moving average. However, he notes it has recently formed a lower high and is pressing the 20 daily again, suggesting some potential weakening. ### 8. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 18, 20 threshold **Historical Comparison:** Mentions VIX seasonal pattern in midterm years tends to show volatility in late July through November. The VIX rose to 18 but did not pass the 20 threshold, which he interprets as not a 'total freak out.' This suggests the market is repricing risk rather than experiencing a systemic panic. ### 9. Junk vs LQD (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The ratio of junk bonds to investment-grade bonds is not getting decimated, indicating that risk appetite remains and there isn't a broad credit market panic. ### 10. Bofer yield spread (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Doing nothing **Historical Comparison:** In past sell-offs, this spread would typically 'stack up and go wild'. The Bofer yield spread is inactive, which is unusual for a sharp tech sell-off. This, along with low bond volatility, suggests Wall Street is concerned about peak earnings but not a systemic failure. ### 11. Oil (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Breakthrough Oil has broken through resistance and continues to move higher. He notes the move began before it was widely covered in the press and that a continued rise could cause systemic concerns. ### 12. Brent (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Strong weekly close Brent crude had a strong weekly close, mirroring the strength seen in WTI oil. ### 13. Energy Stocks (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Island reversal Energy stocks had a good session, coming off an 'island reversal' pattern. He warns that a further breakout could cause systemic failure concerns due to inflation. ### 14. DXY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Stabilization, potential flag **Key Levels:** 101 level The US Dollar Index has stabilized around the 101 level after recent volatility. Some are viewing the current price action as a potential flag pattern. ### 15. SanDisk (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** demand or support area SanDisk has sold off into a key demand/support area. While the weekly close was bad, it is at a level where the market might try to find support. ### 16. SOXX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** major put support, technical support The semiconductor ETF (he calls it 'socks') has sold off aggressively into a key zone that represents both major put support from options and a technical support level. ### 17. QQQ (daily, weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Fell outside daily Bollinger Band **Key Levels:** weekly 20 The Q's fell outside their daily Bollinger Band, which he notes can often lead to a 'snapback' rally. On the weekly timeframe, it is still holding above the 20 moving average. ### 18. Semiconductors vs SPY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** important demand support zones This ratio, which he calls the 'backbone of the market,' has fallen back to important demand and support zones, making this a critical juncture for the market. ### 19. KOSPI (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Lower lows and lower highs The South Korean market is in focus due to liquidations. It is currently in a downtrend of lower lows and lower highs, suggesting sellers are still in control despite it being at a technically important level. ### 20. Magnificent 7 (None) **Bias:** BULLISH In contrast to the semiconductor sell-off, the Magnificent 7 index actually improved over the last week, highlighting the divergence within the market. ### 21. Regional Banks (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Made a new high on the week Regional banks made a new weekly high, which he notes is not the type of behavior seen during a systemic debt failure, indicating health in the financial sector. ### 22. US 2k (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The Russell 2000 is not getting 'absolutely destroyed,' which suggests a rotation is occurring rather than a broad market panic. ### 23. NASDAQ (Options) (intraday) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Trading in negative gamma **Key Levels:** put support The NASDAQ is trading in negative gamma, which can accelerate moves. The market closed right at the zero DTE put support. He notes it's important for the market to hold key levels to avoid forced dealer hedging. ### 24. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Advance-Decline line near all-time highs The S&P 500's Advance-Decline line is near all-time highs, indicating broad market participation and health. From an options perspective, it closed below the zero DTE put supports but is not yet in the major negative gamma area. ### 25. Gold (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** RSI divergence Gold is showing daily RSI divergence against its lower price lows at an important demand area, which could signal stabilization. However, he considers it early days and says it needs to break key resistance to confirm a reversal. ### 26. Bitcoin (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Multiple wicks off the bottom The weekend trade was positive, and the weekly chart shows multiple rejection wicks from the lows, suggesting buying interest is present at these levels. ### 27. Ethereum (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Double bottom base retest **Key Levels:** 2130 supply Ethereum managed to close above a double bottom base, has come back down to retest that level, and may now be heading towards the 2130 supply zone. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a rotational phase, with significant weakness and liquidations in the leadership semiconductor sector, while other areas like software, energy, financials, and the broader equal-weight market show relative strength. This is compared to a similar rotation out of big tech in late 2020 where the overall market continued to rise. The lack of stress in credit markets (Junk bonds, Bofer spread) suggests the current issue is a repricing based on 'peak earnings' fears in tech, rather than a systemic, credit-driven crisis. Midterm election year seasonality points towards a period of higher volatility in the coming months. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The upcoming earnings for Tesla, Alphabet, and especially Intel (with a 15% expected move) will be critical and could cause hundreds of billions of dollars of movement in markets. - The semiconductor sector has fallen into critical technical and options support zones; the market's reaction at these levels is paramount. - A continued breakout in oil and energy stocks could cause systemic failure concerns related to inflation and cost of living. - The NASDAQ is in a precarious position, trading in negative gamma, and needs to hold key support levels to avoid accelerated selling from dealer hedging. ## All Instruments Mentioned Semiconductors, VIXM, VO, TSM, VIX, RSP, Junk vs LQD, Bofer yield spread, Oil, Brent, Energy Stocks, Software Sector, DXY, SanDisk, SOXX, QQQ, Semiconductors vs SPY, KOSPI, Magnificent 7, Regional Banks, US 2k, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, IBM --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-19 02:01:06*