# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Bear Market In Semis, Will We Continue To Crash? US500, Nasdaq
**Date:** 2026-07-20  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ichQpTZfIU)

## Main Thesis
Semiconductors have experienced a capitulation-level sell-off, hitting key cross-correlated support levels which has prompted a technical relief rally in the broader indices. The market's direction now hinges on major tech earnings this week from Google, Intel, and Tesla to determine if this is a bottom or just a bounce in a new bear market for the sector.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. TSM (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average on the weekly

TSM is a huge component of the semiconductor market. It has repeatedly bounced off the 20 weekly moving average, a level for mean reversion. After a rally, it has fallen back down and closed right on this key level, showing respect for it, which is contributing to the broader market bounce.

### 2. MU (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 20 weekly moving average

Micron (MU) has also fallen hard, though not as much as TSM relative to its 20 weekly moving average. It was considered a poster child for the silicon rally.

### 3. SanDisk (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** previous level of demand, 20 weekly moving average

SanDisk has fallen all the way into a previous level of demand, which is a support zone. On the weekly chart, it is also at its 20 weekly moving average, showing cross-correlation with other semiconductor stocks at key levels.

### 4. KOSPI (4-hour, daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend line, series of lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average (resistance on 4-hour)

The KOSPI was a poster child index for the semi-rally and has seen massive retail liquidations. On the 4-hour chart, it's in a clear downtrend of lower lows and lower highs, with the 20 moving average acting as resistance. To recover, it needs to break this pattern and make a higher high.

### 5. S&P 500 (GFC Comparison) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** similar to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

Atkinson shows a chart of the S&P 500 during the GFC to illustrate a point about market psychology. He notes that during brutal sell-offs, markets push to extreme levels, liquidate participants, and can then have ridiculous rallies (e.g., 15%) and drops within the overall downtrend.

### 6. SOXX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown
**Key Levels:** previous demand

The semiconductor index ETF fell under recent lows, likely triggering stop losses, and has come down into a previous demand zone on the left of the chart. This shows cross-correlation with other semiconductor charts hitting key support areas.

### 7. NASDAQ (Q's) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** pushed outside of the Bollinger Band
**Key Levels:** daily 20 moving average

The NASDAQ pushed to an extreme level last week, with the entire daily candle closing outside the Bollinger Band. This often leads to a mean reversion move back towards the middle of the band, which is the 20 daily moving average, explaining the current rally. It also showed more relative strength than the S&P 500 in the overnight session.

### 8. S&P 500 (US500) (intraday)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** small amount of tight structure

The S&P 500 was showing a small amount of tight structure. It was observed to be slightly weaker than the NASDAQ in the opening session, as it made a deeper low before bouncing.

### 9. ETH (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** doubling bottom, higher highs and higher lows

Ethereum was looking stronger than Bitcoin last week, with a technical double bottom structure. It is currently in a 'dull market' pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the 4-hour chart, suggesting less selling pressure and relative strength.

### 10. BTC (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows

Bitcoin is also in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, which is not as weak as many people are saying. However, Ethereum showed more technical strength last week.

### 11. S&P 500 vs Gold (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** dot-com bubble

To analyze if the S&P 500 is overpriced, Atkinson shows a chart of the index valued in gold. He notes that it has been more expensive before (e.g., dot-com bubble) and is currently at a level it's been at for some time, questioning whether stocks are overpriced or if fiat currency is simply worth less.

### 12. DRAM (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** demand zone

DRAM has been 'destroyed', down 40%. However, it has now come back into a cross-correlation demand zone, making this a critical week for the stock.

### 13. KRE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** steadily increasing uptrend
**Key Levels:** 73-74 breakout

The regional banking ETF does not look weak. It broke out around the 73-74 level and has been in a steady uptrend for years, suggesting lending is strong. Bank earnings were good, though they notably did not discuss private debt.

### 14. TTWO (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** shooting star
**Key Levels:** 236 (current price)

Take-Two Interactive recently hit resistance and formed a 'nasty' weekly shooting star candle, indicating a rejection from the highs. Atkinson notes it is 'barely holding on'.

### 15. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** freight train sell-off
**Key Levels:** demand zone

Gold experienced an 'absolute collapse' of 16.5%, dropping like a freight train into a key demand zone. It has started to build some structure at this support, which is necessary to stop the fall.

### 16. Silver (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Silver is picking up a bit better than gold, but this is likely because it was more heavily sold off previously.

### 17. US Oil (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 20 moving average (support), 90 a barrel (potential target)

Despite recent volatility, the technical uptrend in oil is intact. It continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, finding support at the 20 moving average. The trend remains up.

### 18. MSFT (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders

The chart for Microsoft looks like a head and shoulders pattern, which is bearish. Atkinson questions the company's growth engine and notes the stock has been weaker in the last couple of years.

### 19. UK Oil (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 95ish (supply)

The chart for Brent crude looks very similar to US oil. It is in an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows and is approaching a technical supply zone around the $95 level.

### 20. GOOGL (weekly, monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** shooting star
**Key Levels:** 375 resistance, 300 support (gap fill), 275 support

Google's weekly chart shows a 'hideous looking shooting star thing' — a big rejection after taking the high. This is a nasty candle, and until the stock can get through the $375 resistance level, it's hard to see it recovering. Earnings this week are critical.

### 21. INTC (weekly, daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend

Intel is in the 'middle of nowhere land' and has lost a lot of momentum. The chart is in a clear downward trend on both the weekly and daily timeframes, making lower lows and lower highs. The options market expects a potential 15% move on earnings.

### 22. CSCO (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** Cisco in the dot-com bubble

Used as a historical example to show that a market leader can top out well before its earnings peak. The stock market is forward-looking and recognized the top in Cisco early.

### 23. MAGS (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rejection after taking a higher high

The mega-cap tech index showed a bit of a rejection after making a new high, which was likely caused by the weakness seen in Google's chart.

### 24. TSLA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 380 put wall

Tesla is getting closer to a key options level, the 380 put wall. Atkinson feels the 'magic is gone' from the stock, as it has become less technically clean and has been performing poorly.

### 25. SPCX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 123 (current price)

The chart for SpaceX is described as 'bad'. It is dropping and has rough technicals, making a series of lower lows and lower highs with nothing positive to go off yet.

### 26. Copper (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Known as 'the doctor of the market', copper is holding up on the weekly chart. It has been strengthening recently, showing more strength than gold and silver, which can be a positive read on GDP.

### 27. JNK vs LQD (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH

This ratio of junk bonds to investment-grade bonds, used to track risk appetite, is still showing that market participants are not concerned about debt. It remains a risk-on signal.

### 28. ORCL (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Atkinson states that Oracle's stock 'doesn't look good at all' and is 'brutal'. The credit default swaps (CDS) on the company are also 'going wild', indicating the market is pricing in risk.

### 29. QCOM (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Qualcomm is also getting 'pressured pretty heavily', though not to the same extent as Oracle.

### 30. XLP (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The consumer staples sector ETF is a defensive area that is just 'floating' and not doing much in particular.

### 31. XLV (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH

The healthcare sector ETF has shown strength recently.

### 32. XBI (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The biotech ETF is 'having a bit of a sleep' and not showing much activity.

### 33. IGV (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The software ETF is getting a lot of talk but is just 'floating around the same level it's been at for a week'.

### 34. XLE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows

The energy sector has been the real story. Energy stocks have continued to make higher highs and higher lows for the past two weeks, and the technical uptrend is not broken.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The analysis is heavily focused on cross-correlation and intermarket relationships. Key comparisons include the broad semiconductor sell-off hitting key technical levels simultaneously (TSM, SOXX, MU at 20 WMA or demand zones), leading to a bounce in oversold indices (NASDAQ outside Bollinger Bands). There's a divergence noted between weak semis and stronger software (IGV) and energy (XLE) sectors. Risk appetite is still considered 'on' based on the JNK/LQD bond ratio, and the banking sector (KRE) looks strong, though there are underlying concerns about un-discussed private debt. The long-term valuation of stocks is questioned by comparing the S&P 500 to Gold.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The semiconductor market has experienced a capitulation event, with a stat showing 0% of stocks in some semi ETFs are above their 20 daily moving average.
- The current rally in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 is a technical bounce from extreme oversold conditions (e.g., outside the daily Bollinger Bands).
- This is a critical week for markets due to earnings from Google, Intel, and Tesla, which will heavily influence the tech sector's direction.
- The technical uptrend in Oil and Energy stocks (XLE) remains intact, with charts continuing to make higher highs and higher lows.
- A warning that volatility is likely not over, as the period heading into November midterm elections is historically very volatile.
- The KOSPI index is a key barometer for the semi space; a break of its downtrend (above the 4hr 20MA and a higher high) would be a bullish signal.

## All Instruments Mentioned
TSM, MU, SanDisk, Google, Intel, Tesla, KOSPI, S&P 500, US500, SPX, NASDAQ, Q's, SOXX, ETH, BTC, Gold, Silver, DRAM, KRE, TTWO, US Oil, Microsoft, MSFT, UK Oil, Brent, Cisco, CSCO, MAGS, SpaceX, SPCX, Copper, JNK, LQD, Oracle, ORCL, QCOM, XLP, XLV, XBI, IGV, XLE

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-23 02:05:33*