# Wall Street Is Quietly Doing This... **Date:** 2026-07-21 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-o14RP-xYk) ## Main Thesis The market is undergoing a significant rotation away from the Magnificent 7, with increasing volatility in tech and semiconductors, which is typical for a midterm election year. While the broader market remains healthy, early signs of stress are appearing in specific credit instruments, making the upcoming earnings season a critical catalyst for the market's next direction. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Google 100-year Bond (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** trading underneath its face value **Key Levels:** trading at around $90, launched around that $100 marker The 100-year Google bond is now trading at around $90, or 90 cents on the dollar, from its launch price of $100. This is presented as a potentially worrying sign that peak debt creation may have occurred in the hyperscalers. ### 2. Oracle (ORCL) (3-month) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** falling off a cliff, going through previous support **Historical Comparison:** this is a absolute bloodbath on this stock. And I just think it's such a horrible looking 3-month chart... That is actually faster than last time. Oracle is described as "falling off a cliff" and going through previous support with high volume. The stock is down 52% since late May/June, a collapse described as a "bloodbath" that is faster than its previous fall. Its credit default swaps are also rising, indicating perceived market risk. ### 3. Credit Default Swaps (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** rising Credit default swaps are rising, with Oracle leading the charge. This indicates the market sees real risk in certain bonds. For now, the problem seems segregated to a few stocks, but it's a key theme to watch. ### 4. S&P 500 (Broad Market Health) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** More than 70% of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average **Historical Comparison:** The deviation from trend is similar to the dot-com boom, but this time it's supported by real earnings. The broader market is described as generally healthy, with over 70% of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. This breadth is why the S&P is performing differently than semiconductors. ### 5. Google (GOOGL) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** indecision point **Key Levels:** 375, 300 Google is the stock to watch this week for earnings, with the options market expecting a 6.6% move. The chart is at an indecision point. Important levels are 375 and the prior lower low. A break lower could pressure the stock towards 300. ### 6. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The options market expects Tesla to move plus or minus 7.1% on its upcoming earnings report. ### 7. Intel (INTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The options market is pricing in a very large move of plus or minus 15% for Intel's earnings. ### 8. Semiconductor Index (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** dropped historically **Key Levels:** put support **Historical Comparison:** We've seen several semiconductor falls. The semiconductor index has dropped historically, hitting put support last Friday. There is a divergence where the index price is falling while Wall Street is upgrading earnings per share. The host questions if the rally is over, noting that significant retail leverage has been wiped out, which could dampen future buying power. ### 9. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** large dark pool transactions The fourth and second largest transactions recently went through in VOO via dark pools. The host notes that large transactions near a peak warrant attention and could signal market rotation. ### 10. VIX (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** seasonal pattern shows it often goes crazy during this time **Key Levels:** just underneath 20 The VIX is just under 20, and its volatility is also rising. The seasonal pattern for this time of year suggests it often spikes, indicating expected volatility and potentially choppy markets. ### 11. S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** potential double top **Key Levels:** 20 moving average The RSP, which has been very strong, is now under pressure after a big rejection from the top and a lower high. It is testing its 20 moving average and support, with a potential double top pattern forming, though it has not broken down yet. ### 12. MOVE Index (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is not doing much, showing only a slight pickup. It is not yet signaling a major problem. ### 13. Junk vs Corporate Bonds (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL There are no signs of junk bonds being dumped against quality corporate bonds. The bond market is described as 'going ballistic still,' with appetite for debt in the right areas remaining strong. ### 14. Software Sector (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** consolidating in a pit The software sector has been volatile but is generally just consolidating in a range. It has not shown improvement even as semiconductors have fallen. ### 15. US Dollar (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** sitting in a pit The US Dollar is also consolidating, described as 'sitting in a pit,' suggesting the market is waiting for a catalyst, likely from earnings. ### 16. TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** weekly 20 moving average TSM is sitting at its weekly 20 moving average, which is a very important level. The host notes it takes market structure to stop a 'freight train' trend, and that structure has not yet formed. ### 17. KOSPI (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs The KOSPI is in a downtrend, making a series of lower lows and lower highs. It recently made a new lower low before finding a small bid. The market is looking for a higher high to signal a potential change. ### 18. Magnificent 7 vs SPY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** performing in line with SPY, not outperforming **Historical Comparison:** Contrasted with the years it used to outperform. For over 12 months, the Magnificent 7 has not outperformed the S&P 500, only performing in-line. This is a significant change from its multi-year outperformance, and the market is starting to question the returns on their spending. ### 19. Regional Banks (KRE) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** holding pretty well Regional banks are holding up well, suggesting that themes of debt creation and deregulation are still alive. There is no major 'freak out' in this sector. ### 20. Russell 2000 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The Russell 2000 is noted as not being as weak as the NASDAQ, showing relative strength. ### 21. NASDAQ (QQQ) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** traded outside its Ballinger, filled the gap **Key Levels:** 700 put The NASDAQ traded outside its Bollinger Band, bounced, and filled a gap. It is currently below the key 700 put level, putting it in a slight negative gamma position. A move to a lower low could trigger a 'waterfall' event. ### 22. S&P 500 Futures (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** rejection candle, trading in a channel **Key Levels:** 7420 support, 7,300 target The S&P 500 futures market showed a rejection candle. It is currently in a middling zone within a channel. A close below 7420 could push the price down to the bottom of the channel at 7,300. ### 23. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** downtrend, watching for a potential double bottom **Key Levels:** all-important demand zone Gold is hovering at a key demand zone. The current trend is down, and the market is waiting to see if it will form a structural base, like a double bottom, or continue its trend lower. ### 24. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The analysis for Silver is noted as being similar to that of Gold. ### 25. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher lows and higher highs, bouncing off anchored VWAPs **Key Levels:** 66 and a half thousand, 67,000 Bitcoin is showing strength, making a series of higher lows and higher highs as each sell-off finds a bid. It is bouncing from anchored VWAPs. A break above 67,000 would signal a meaningful change of trend. ### 26. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** doubling lows, potential higher highs, higher lows **Key Levels:** 2100 kind of 30 area supply Ethereum is showing signs of strength with potential double bottoms and a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. There is potential for it to move up to the 2130 supply area. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is currently in a midterm election year regime, which is historically characterized by high volatility, choppy price action, and weakness in the tech sector around the third quarter. There is a significant thematic rotation occurring, with the 'Magnificent 7 is dead' narrative gaining traction as other sectors like energy, metals, banks, and healthcare see inflows. The focus for the third and fourth quarters is shifting from earnings and IPOs to 'bonds, bonds, bonds' and credit default swaps, indicating a heightened awareness of credit risk and debt problems. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The market is waiting for earnings from Tesla, Alphabet (Google), and IBM on Wednesday, and Intel on Thursday, which will be major catalysts. - A key focus for the next 6 months must be on the bond market and credit default swaps for signs of broadening stress. - There is a warning of a potential 'waterfall' event in the NASDAQ (QQQ) if it makes a new lower low while in negative gamma below the 700 put level. - For S&P 500 futures, a close below 7420 could trigger a move down to 7,300. - For Bitcoin, a move through 67,000 would signal a meaningful change of trend to the upside. ## All Instruments Mentioned Magnificent 7, Google Bond, Oracle, Credit Default Swaps, S&P 500, Semiconductors, NASDAQ, Google, Tesla, Intel, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), IBM, Industrials, Bonds, VIX, S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), MOVE Index, Junk Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Software Sector, US Dollar, SanDisk, TSM, KOSPI, SPY, Regional Banks (KRE), Russell 2000, QQQ, S&P 500 Futures, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, MSTR --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-23 02:04:21*