# We NEED TO TALK About THIS... **Date:** 2026-07-22 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdfJ54oi1yE) ## Main Thesis Markets are at a critical inflection point after semiconductors rebounded from a sharp sell-off, but it's unclear if this is a dead cat bounce or a real recovery. Conflicting signals like rising yields, oil, and dollar versus a lack of fear in the bond market, coupled with upcoming big tech earnings, will likely determine the market's direction for the next few months. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Semiconductors (General) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** After big falls of 20-30%, the sector is up 71% of the time 1 month later, but only 28.6% of the time 9 months later. The average path is a rally, a drop, another rally, then a decline. Semiconductors led a market sell-off with major liquidations but have since seen a rally from the lows. The rebound is questioned as potentially being a dead cat bounce. A historical study shows that while initial rallies are common after such drops, performance tends to be poor 9 months out. The market is concerned about peak earnings despite Wall Street upgrades. ### 2. Micron (MU) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 1,032 resistance Atkinson mentions a UBS note suggesting Micron could repurchase 40% of its shares by 2028, which could support the price but also signals a lack of investment in future growth. The stock has shown improvement off the lows, and a break through 1,032 would mark a higher high. ### 3. Financials (XLF) (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUS A large transaction was noted near the peaks of the financial sector, post a very good earnings season for banks. This suggests the sector needs to be watched more closely now than ever before. ### 4. Google (GOOGL) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 365-370 resistance, 300 support Google has a major earnings announcement coming up, with an expected move of +/- 6.6%. The stock was hit hard late last week and has not recovered. A push through the 365-370 area could squeeze shorts, while a new lower low could bring the 300 level into play. ### 5. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Tesla is also reporting earnings, with the options market expecting a +/- 7.1% move. ### 6. Intel (INTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Intel earnings are on Thursday, with the options market pricing in a large +/- 15% move. ### 7. Oil (4hour) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows Oil is making a series of higher highs and higher lows, driven by geopolitical conflicts. On the 4-hour chart, it has been bouncing off the 20 moving average and just made a new higher high. ### 8. Gold (daily) **Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Pattern:** potential double bottom Gold has been in a freefall, continuously finding resistance at the 20 daily moving average. At the time of recording, it is attempting to close above this key level, which is a good sign. Structure for a potential double bottom is starting to appear. ### 9. Bitcoin (BTC) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** potential double bottom **Key Levels:** 66,500 to 67,000 resistance, 73,000 to 76,000 resistance Bitcoin has seen one of its longest daily ETF inflow streaks recently, reversing the terrible outflows from June. It has formed a potential double bottom base and is now testing a major resistance zone between 66,500 and 67,000. A break above this level could open up a move to the next supply zone at 73,000 to 76,000. ### 10. SMCI (None) **Bias:** BULLISH SMCI had a blockbuster preliminary Q4 update, with margin guidance jumping from ~8.3% to 15-17%. The stock was up around $30 at the time of recording. ### 11. Japanese Yen (JPY) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH The Yen is getting 'smashed' and breaking to new highs (implying USD/JPY is rising). This could bring in the Bank of Japan and has implications for the carry trade. ### 12. Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** potential lower high RSP, representing the broader market, has been one of the strongest segments. However, it has just made a potential lower high and is under pressure, suggesting a rotation out of the broad market and into tech/semiconductors. ### 13. VIX (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 20 threshold, 25 threshold The VIX dropped and has not sustained a move above the key 20 threshold since March. 20 and 25 are the levels to watch. ### 14. US 10-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The 10-year yield is getting close to making a new high. ### 15. US 30-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 5.2% resistance The 30-year yield, which is dictated by the market, is about to potentially break to a new multi-year high. A break above 5.2% could be a signal that 'something is starting to break'. ### 16. Oracle (ORCL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Oracle's credit default swaps have hit a new multi-year high, indicating rising risk. The stock has collapsed since its high in September 2025 and is now at a potential support level. Its debt is tied to OpenAI. ### 17. Nvidia (NVDA) (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUS Credit default swaps for Nvidia are rising even as the stock price is up, which is described as 'something weird is going on underneath the hood'. ### 18. Junk Bonds vs Corporate Bonds (HYG/LQD) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The ratio of junk bonds to corporate high-grade bonds is still rising, which indicates continued risk appetite. This is a key signal that the bond market is not yet showing extreme fear. ### 19. Software (IGV/XSW) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The software sector is 'still sitting in a pit' and is effectively moving sideways. ### 20. US Dollar (DXY) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** flag **Key Levels:** 101.80 The US Dollar is attempting to break out of a potential flag pattern. The 101.80 level is being watched as it pushes higher above a key resistance area. ### 21. Copper (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows Dr. Copper is pressuring higher, suggesting GDP may still be growing. It is in a series of higher highs and higher lows and is attempting to break through a multi-rejection resistance zone. ### 22. TSM (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Pattern:** mean reversion **Key Levels:** 416, 425 TSM has come back to a mean reversion level four times. It has shown improvement, making a higher high at 416 and trading as high as 425. ### 23. KOSPI (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs The South Korean market has been 'totally destroyed' and remains in a downtrend. However, it is showing some notable improvement and is pressuring key areas, though it has not broken the trend yet. ### 24. SMH/SPY Ratio (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** support This ratio, called the 'backbone of the stock market', hit a key support level which triggered the relief rally in semiconductors. ### 25. Russell 2000 (US2000) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** consolidation, series of higher highs and higher lows The Russell 2000 is consolidating but still making a series of higher highs and higher lows, despite a high number of short sellers in the market. ### 26. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (daily, 15-minute) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 695-700 support, 716 put support, 715-720 resistance The Nasdaq defended the critical 695-700 level as the daily Bollinger Band was extended. The market showed improvement on smaller timeframes. Key options levels include put support around 716, while a heavy transaction zone exists between 715 and 720. ### 27. S&P 500 (SPY) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** range-bound **Key Levels:** 7,300 put support, 7,600 call wall The S&P 500 is trapped in a sideways range. For the futures, there is key support and resistance, with options showing major put support at 7,300 and a large positive gamma call wall at 7,600. ### 28. Energy Sector (XLE) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows After being 'absolutely destroyed' a few weeks ago, energy stocks are now up 10% and are in a clear uptrend. ### 29. Silver (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Silver made a lower low but is now pressuring the important daily 20 moving average, similar to gold. ### 30. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** potential double bottom Ethereum has formed a potential double bottom base and is in a series of higher highs and higher lows. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The current market regime is characterized by conflicting intermarket signals. Yields, oil, and the US dollar are all rising, which typically indicates a risk-off environment. However, the bond market is not confirming this fear, as junk bonds continue to outperform corporate bonds, signaling risk appetite. This divergence is a key theme. Atkinson also highlights the importance of cross-correlation analysis, noting the rotation from broad-market equal-weight (RSP) into beaten-down semiconductors, and the fact that the market trades on expectations 12-18 months in the future. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The upcoming earnings from Google, Tesla, and Intel could be a 'defining 24 hours for the next couple of months'. - A break above 5.2% on the US 30-year yield could be a major warning signal that 'something is starting to break' in the market. - If Bitcoin can break through the 66,500-67,000 resistance zone, the next major target is 73,000 to 76,000. - If Google breaks to a new lower low after earnings, it could fall towards the 300 level. - Warning from Jamie Dimon that markets are 'significantly underestimating risk' and he would not buy stocks or treasuries at current valuations. ## All Instruments Mentioned Semiconductors, Google, Tesla, Yields, Oil, Currencies, Japanese Yen, Stocks, Commodities, Cryptos, Bonds, Micron (MU), Financials (XLF), Intel (INTC), Gold, Bitcoin (BTC), SMCI, JP Morgan Chase, Treasuries, Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP), VIX, US 10-Year Yield, US 30-Year Yield, Oracle (ORCL), Nvidia (NVDA), Junk Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Software, US Dollar (DXY), TSM, KOSPI, Regional Banks (KRE), SMH/SPY Ratio, Russell 2000 (US2000), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 500 (SPY), Energy Sector (XLE), Copper, Silver, Ethereum (ETH) --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-23 02:02:47*