# WALL STREET WAKES UP?
**Date:** 2026-07-24  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S54ET3cg-kk)

## Main Thesis
Wall Street is showing signs of panic as it turns defensive, punishing high AI-spending companies like Google and Tesla despite a strong earnings season. Rising yields, a strong dollar, and $100 oil are creating a 'fear of the unknown' environment, putting the Nasdaq at a critical support level where a breakdown could trigger a significant waterfall sell-off.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Google (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 320 put support
**Historical Comparison:** first negative free cash flow since 2004

Google fell 7% after reporting its first negative free cash flow since 2004, a story that has now blown up. The market is punishing its high spending on AI. The stock came down to a major put support zone around 320. The price action is in a downtrend, making a series of lower lows and lower highs.

### 2. Tesla (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** massive sell-off, no market structure
**Key Levels:** 370 380 put support (broken), 320 put support

Tesla fell 14.5% in one session after announcing a $200 billion+ AI spending plan, as the market punishes big spenders. It smashed through the 370-380 put support and fell to the next level at 320. The 22nd largest transaction ever was recorded near the close, which can sometimes mark turning points, but it's too early to tell as there is no market structure yet.

### 3. UK Barrels (Oil) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** $100, 120 (speculative target), 140 (speculative target), 200 (speculative target)

UK barrels hit $100, which is a worrying sign for the market. People are now speculating on prices as high as $120, $140, or even $200. Oil seasonality tends to rise this time of year, and global reserves are much lower than in the past.

### 4. US 30-Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** reaching highs
**Key Levels:** 5%, 5.17
**Historical Comparison:** longest sustained period above 5% since 2007

The 30-year yield is reaching highs and is at 5.17%. This is the longest it has held above 5% since 2007, creating a 'fear of the unknown' and putting pressure on housing and mortgages, which could cascade into a wider debt market problem similar to the GFC.

### 5. KOSPI (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend line, series of lower lows and lower highs

Referred to as 'the Cosby', it is still facing a downward trend line and the 20 moving average on the 4-hour chart, which it has not closed above. At the time of recording, it had fallen 5.8%.

### 6. Intel (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** post-earnings volatility

Intel had a good earnings result. The stock was up 11% after hours, but after Jim Cramer endorsed it, it fell and ended up only 3%. It was one of the first stocks to rally a bit after falling, which could be a positive sign for the market.

### 7. US 10-Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4.8 (multi-year high if passed)

The 10-year yield made a new high, continuing its pattern of higher highs and higher lows that has been simmering in the background. A move past 4.8 would be a new multi-year high.

### 8. USD/JPY (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** 164

The US dollar / yen is approaching 164, raising questions about whether the Bank of Japan is about to intervene. The weekly close will be important.

### 9. High Yield Junk Bonds (HYG/JNK) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropping
**Key Levels:** 79

High yield junk bonds got 'thrashed' over the last 24 hours, moving down to 79. However, they are holding up better than investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD).

### 10. LQD (Investment Grade Corporate Bonds) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** getting smashed

Investment grade corporate bonds are getting 'smashed a lot more' than junk bonds. Atkinson theorizes this is due to the 'AI spend bubble', as high-grade hyperscalers are spending so much they are getting downgraded by the street.

### 11. Junk vs LQD ratio (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** junk is still holding up

The ratio of junk bonds to LQD shows junk is holding up better, which suggests it is not yet a 'total freakout' in the bond market.

### 12. BofA High Yield Spread (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** doing nothing

This indicator, which used to be a great read, is 'doing nothing' and 'just chilling down there'. It is not signaling any freakout in the market.

### 13. US Dollar Index (DXY) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential Wyckoff base, series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 101.12 (broken resistance), 101.50 (resistance)

The dollar made a higher high and close, getting through 101.12. The short-term trend is bullish, with a potential Wyckoff base forming. This is good for dollar bulls but bad for gold and silver.

### 14. Gold (daily, weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** closed above daily 20 MA, weekly rejecting lows at demand zone

Gold has been thrashed recently but saw some improvement with a daily close above the 20 moving average. However, it struggled with US dollar strength. The weekly chart is important, as it has been rejecting lows around a demand zone, but the upcoming weekly close looks 'a little bit weird'.

### 15. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** at pivotal point of supply/resistance, trying to make higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 73000 (potential target), 74000 (potential target)

Bitcoin is at a pivotal point of supply and resistance. The 4th largest transaction ever was recorded in BITO, and ETF flows have been positive. If it can break through the current resistance where bears are trying to sell, it could target levels like 73,000-74,000.

### 16. VIX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** seasonal tendency to rise
**Key Levels:** 20

The VIX spiked up to 20 but remains underneath it, indicating some volatility but not a 'total freakout'. A move above 20 would be significant. Seasonally, this is the most important time of year for volatility to rise, especially in midterm election years.

### 17. S&P 500 (% stocks > 20MA) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 38% (current level), 20 (capitulation zone)

This breadth indicator shows 38% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average. This is weak but has not yet reached the 20% threshold that often signals capitulation.

### 18. RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** closed below the daily 20 moving average

The equal-weighted S&P 500 started showing weakness a week ago and has now closed below its daily 20 moving average. This is a sign of the market pausing and showing weakness.

### 19. TSM (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding the 20 moving average on the weekly
**Key Levels:** key level of support

TSM hit a key level of support and has rallied in comparison to the rest of the market falling. It is so far holding its weekly 20 moving average.

### 20. Semiconductors vs SPY (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** all-important support level

This ratio is considered the 'backbone of the market'. For the last couple of days, semiconductors have been outperforming the S&P 500 and are holding onto a key support level. Losing this level would be trouble for the market.

### 21. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** slammed into put support
**Key Levels:** major put support levels

SpaceX has fallen significantly since its IPO, similar to Tesla. It has 'slammed into' major put support levels based on the options market, and there are many negative storylines emerging.

### 22. IWM (Russell 2000) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding up very well

The Russell 2000 has been holding up very well in comparison to other indices, which is attributed to market breadth doing okay.

### 23. Dow Jones (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** came down to the weekly 50 MA

The Dow 'doesn't look that bad' and has just come down to its weekly 50 moving average, suggesting it's not a full-on panic by the street.

### 24. Nasdaq (Futures) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** diamond style pattern (broken down)

The Nasdaq is under significant pressure and at a very important point. The weekly close will be critical. If it loses its key support level, it could trigger a 'massive negative gamma style event' and 'waterfall markets'. Some traders see a broken diamond pattern, which is a bearish signal.

### 25. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped in a range, choppy

The S&P 500 is trapped in a choppy range, which is normal for midterm election years. The advance-decline line is dropping, showing more stocks are going down than up. Options market shows put support has moved lower.

### 26. Ethereum (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

Ethereum is holding up relatively well. Although it has dropped, it is still making a series of higher highs and higher lows.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a risk-off regime driven by rising yields, oil, and a strong dollar. The US 30-year yield holding above 5% for the longest time since 2007 raises concerns of a GFC-style cascade if the debt/housing market cracks. There is an unusual intermarket divergence where investment-grade bonds (LQD) are underperforming junk bonds, which Atkinson attributes to an 'AI spend bubble' punishing high-grade tech companies. Seasonality for both oil and the VIX points towards higher prices and volatility, especially in a midterm election year. Defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities are outperforming, confirming the defensive shift.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Losing semiconductor leadership would put the whole market in trouble.
- The Nasdaq is at a critical support level; a break lower could trigger a 'massive negative gamma style event' and 'waterfall markets'.
- Yields are the most important factor that the street will be watching in the coming days.
- The upcoming earnings reports from the rest of the Mag 7 are 'so important to watch' and could be a major catalyst.
- The weekly close for the Nasdaq is 'so important'.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Google, Tesla, UK Barrels, Intel, US 30-Year Yield, US 10-Year Yield, KOSPI, TSM, XLC, PSQ, Gold, Bitcoin, VIX, S&P 500, RSP, USD/JPY, High Yield Junk Bonds, LQD, BofA High Yield Spread, US Dollar Index (DXY), Semiconductors vs SPY, SpaceX, IWM, Dow Jones, XLP, XLV, Utilities, Nasdaq, Ethereum, SPY, QQQ, BITO

---
*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-24 23:01:33*