# We've Seen This Before... (sp500, nasdaq) **Date:** 2026-07-26 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4UXf9lI_SE) ## Main Thesis The market is experiencing significant volatility and a tech-led selloff ahead of critical big tech earnings, with key indices like the Nasdaq testing major long-term support. While sentiment is extremely bearish, a broad-based panic is not yet evident in bonds or defensive sectors, suggesting a pivotal moment for markets. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Nasdaq (QQQ) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 20-weekly moving average support Atkinson highlights the 20-weekly moving average as a critical level for the Nasdaq (cues), noting that the 'first touch' of this average after a big run is often powerful and widely watched by Wall Street. He states that while the index has made a lower low and closed badly, this weekly support level is incredibly important to watch to see if it holds. ### 2. Semiconductors (Generic) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 20-weekly moving average support **Historical Comparison:** A study is mentioned suggesting that after large drawdowns, subsequent rallies in semiconductors can often be 'dead cat bounces', with the market being bullish less than a third of the time nine months later. Atkinson notes that massive, third-largest ever dark pool transactions occurred in semiconductors at a key support level. However, the weekly chart looks 'horrible'. He is watching to see if the market rebounds, potentially trapping retail shorts, but acknowledges the bearish candle and historical data suggesting rallies may be false. ### 3. DRAM (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** gap fill A large (16th largest) dark pool transaction was observed in DRAM after the stock filled a gap. This is noted as an interesting sign from the street to be tracked. ### 4. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** basing After crashing into a bear market (down ~30%), Gold is now at a key zone where it is potentially forming a base. Some dark pool transactions have been observed, and it's showing early signs of stabilization, but is still in a series of lower lows and lower highs. ### 5. Oil (4-hour) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 20 moving average support Oil has repeatedly tested and bounced from the 20 moving average on the 4-hour chart, doing so for a fourth time on Friday. Atkinson calls this a very important level to watch, as it has also hit a supply zone on the left. ### 6. Shell (SHEL) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A monster transaction, the second largest ever, was seen on Shell at a resistance level. Atkinson notes the largest ever occurred at the April peak and another large one preceded a collapse, questioning if this new one means oil will go sideways. ### 7. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Bitcoin hit a key resistance level, and ETF flows have turned negative, suggesting a potential pullback or 'pit'. It is currently holding a higher low. A break through the resistance could create a squeeze, but for now, it's at a pivotal point. ### 8. Bido (BITO) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A large transaction, the fourth largest ever for BITO, was seen, which marries up with Bitcoin being at key levels. ### 9. Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (RSP) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The equal-weighted market (RSP) held up, indicating that the broad market is not as weak as the tech-heavy indices suggest. ### 10. Healthcare (XLV) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pit As a defensive sector, healthcare is performing differently from the rest of the market. After a large, quick upward thrust, it is now in a 'pit' or consolidation. A higher high could signal further good times for the sector. ### 11. US Dollar (DXY) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** flag, pullback in time **Key Levels:** 103.80 target, 104 target The US Dollar has potentially closed above a flag pattern. The weekly candle is a strong close, the highest in this period, which he calls a 'pullback in time'. This suggests a continuation of higher highs and higher lows, potentially targeting 103.80 to 104, which would be a risk-off signal for markets. ### 12. Silver (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** basing **Key Levels:** daily 20 resistance Similar to gold, silver has started to show signs of basing but has not yet closed above its daily 20 moving average. It remains in a series of lower lows and lower highs for now. ### 13. Oracle (ORCL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Presented as a cautionary tale against buying the dip. The stock has continued to fall, down 68% from its peak, and has experienced significant drops (18% and 50%+) from recent dip-buying attempts. He advises waiting for market structure to change. ### 14. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 300 support Tesla has been 'destroyed', collapsing down to the 300 area, where major put options are sitting. He describes it as a 'freight train down' that may need to build some structure before finding a bottom. ### 15. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** Compared to other hot IPOs like Twitter and Facebook that turned bad after listing. Described as a typical hot IPO that has performed poorly. It is currently making a series of lower lows and lower highs. ### 16. Google (GOOGL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** most traded zone support The stock has 'horrible candles' after being punished by the street for its free cash flow and spending post-earnings. It is now trading at its 'most traded zone', which is a very important support level ahead of more big tech earnings. ### 17. Microsoft (MSFT) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 350 support Microsoft could come down to key support levels this week. The chart shows that a large number of put options are sitting at the 350 level, which aligns with technical support. ### 18. Amazon (AMZN) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 200 potential target The chart for Amazon 'looks kind of nasty' and is approaching its put zones. Atkinson speculates that if earnings results are bad, the stock could move down to the next level around 200 pretty quickly. ### 19. S&P 500 (SPX) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 7525 resistance The S&P 500 closed badly on the daily, and the advance-decline line is weakening. It is making lower lows and lower highs, suggesting further weakness could be coming. The main put zone is at 7300. (Note: The stated price levels of 7400, 7300, and 7525 are extremely high for SPX and are likely transcription errors; only 7525 was explicitly labeled as a level on the chart). ### 20. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** double bottom Ethereum is still holding a higher low, and its double bottom pattern remains 'kind of intact'. The technical structure is holding for now. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis Atkinson discusses the current market regime in the context of a midterm election year, where Q3 volatility is historically normal and often spikes into October. He draws a parallel between the current AI-driven rally and the dot-com boom, questioning if it will end in a similar crash, which he believes depends on when Wall Street stops providing cheap debt. Intermarket analysis shows a divergence: while tech is selling off hard, bonds (specifically junk vs. corporate spreads) are not showing broad-based panic, and defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities are holding up. A strengthening US Dollar is noted as a key risk-off signal. ## Key Calls & Predictions - This is a critical week for markets due to blockbuster earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon on Wednesday and Thursday. - The first touch of the 20-weekly moving average on the Nasdaq (QQQ) is a crucial support level that must be watched. - The US Dollar (DXY) may be breaking out of a bullish flag pattern, targeting 103.80-104, which would signal a risk-off environment. - Despite the sharp tech sell-off, a full-scale market collapse is not yet confirmed as bonds are not panicking and defensive sectors are stable. - Large institutional (dark pool) transactions have been detected in semiconductors and gold at key support levels, indicating significant interest. - A warning against indiscriminately 'buying the dip' on stocks in strong downtrends like Oracle without waiting for a change in market structure. ## All Instruments Mentioned SPX, NDX, Oil, Gold, Bonds, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle, QQQ, Intel, ARM, PayPal, Microsoft, Apple, Semiconductors, DRAM, Shell, Bitcoin, Bido, RSP, Healthcare, Staples, Utilities, Financials, KRE, SPY, VIX, Junk Bonds, LQD, MOVE Index, US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Silver, GDX, TSM, Software Sector, SpaceX, Ethereum --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-07-26 02:00:58*