# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: The Biggest Week In 6 Years? SP500, Nasdaq, Gold, AAPL, KOSPI **Date:** 2026-07-27 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e15LSDl0Kx0) ## Main Thesis The market is at a critical juncture as the NASDAQ tests its weekly 20 moving average ahead of a massive earnings week for the Mag 7. The key theme is the market's shifting reaction to AI-related capex spending, creating a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' scenario for major tech companies. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. UK Oil (4-hour) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Broke uptrend structure, lost the 4-hour 20 moving average, made a lower high, and is now a 'freight train down'. **Key Levels:** first most traded zone support UK oil has fallen 'off a cliff', which likely drove the morning bounce in equities. It broke its uptrend structure on the 4-hour chart by closing below the 20 moving average after making a lower high. It has now moved down to the next level of equilibrium, which is the first most traded zone and a previous demand area. ### 2. US Oil (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** around $80 a barrel support (most traded area), first level of support Similar to UK oil, US oil has fallen but has not quite reached its most traded area, which is around $80 a barrel. It is currently sitting at its first level of support. ### 3. KOSPI (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Series of lower lows and lower highs. **Key Levels:** below the 20 week moving average, below previous lower highs The South Korean market remains in a downtrend, making a series of lower lows and lower highs, including a new lower low last week. It is below the 20-week moving average, suggesting the bears are still in control despite some stabilization in semiconductors. ### 4. NASDAQ (weekly, daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Mean reversion to the weekly 20 MA. Daily chart is in a series of lower lows and lower highs. Some could see a head and shoulders pattern. **Key Levels:** 29,200 resistance, weekly 20 moving average support **Historical Comparison:** Compares the current first touch of the weekly 20 MA to previous instances after large falls, noting it often produces a bounce but isn't always the final low. The NASDAQ has pulled back to the critical weekly 20 moving average. While the weekly candle looks very weak, this is a key support level that often produces a bounce. The daily trend is down. A break above 29,200 would be significant, while a break of last week's low could trigger a 'negative gamma event'. ### 5. Apple to Google Ratio (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Trend reversal. This ratio chart shows that Apple underperformed Google for a long time due to being behind on AI capex spend. However, a trend reversal occurred around May/July as Apple began to monetize hardware AI, leading to a significant outperformance. ### 6. Meta (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 680 resistance Meta was rewarded for being the first company to stop heavy AI capex spending, with the stock running to 680. Now, the market is questioning its next steps. The chart is described as being 'in the middle of nowhere'. ### 7. Amazon (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Potential island reversal. **Key Levels:** critical zone support Amazon is 'looking a little weak' and is sitting at a critical zone. After gapping down, it is forming a potential island reversal pattern. ### 8. Microsoft (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** previous high resistance Microsoft has suffered recently. It rallied back up to its previous high, found resistance, and is now 'struggling there'. ### 9. Oracle (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Freight train down. **Historical Comparison:** The day its CEO became the world's richest man marked the stock's peak. The Oracle chart 'looks terrible, terrible' and is in a sustained downtrend. Credit default swaps on its bonds have hit a new high, indicating the market is demanding a higher premium for its risk. ### 10. Magnificent 7 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** previous low support This is tracked as a cross-pair. If the Mag 7 index makes a lower low, it could signal a much deeper pullback for the NASDAQ due to its heavy weighting. ### 11. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 114 **Historical Comparison:** The IPO is questioned as a potential 'IPO top' signal for market fever, similar to other historical peaks. Discussed in the context of 'peak fever' in the market. The stock is trading at 114 and has been 'hit and knocked around' since its IPO. ### 12. US 500 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Trading in a range. The S&P 500 has been stronger than the NASDAQ. It is currently stuck between two critical zones, which Atkinson states as 7,300 and 7,530 (note: these are likely CFD prices, not standard index levels). ### 13. RSP (Equal Weight) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The equal-weight S&P 500 'doesn't look that bad,' suggesting broader market health is holding up. ### 14. Dow (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Similar to the equal-weight index, the Dow 'doesn't look that bad'. ### 15. Junk Bonds (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Junk bonds 'don't look shocking' and are holding up better than corporate bonds, indicating no broad credit panic. ### 16. LQD (Corporate Bonds) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Corporate bonds are down 'a lot more' than junk bonds. This is attributed to the market punishing companies for heavy, unproven AI spending by demanding higher yields. ### 17. MOVE (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The bond volatility index is 'not really' moving, showing a lack of stress in the bond market. ### 18. BOW (High Yield) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL High yield is not showing signs of worry and is 'barely moving'. ### 19. Financials (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Making higher highs and higher lows. The financials sector is described as 'fine' and is in a clear uptrend. ### 20. KRE (Regional Banks) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Regional banks are 'looking fine' and are in an uptrend. ### 21. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Very large dark pool transactions, the fourth largest on record, came through on Friday. The market has rallied since, but the reaction to this large block of shares is key to watch. ### 22. Bitcoin (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Series of higher highs and higher lows. **Key Levels:** resistance level Bitcoin is currently at a resistance level but remains in an uptrend structure. The market is relatively stable. ### 23. Ethereum (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Series of higher highs and higher lows, made a new higher high. Ethereum is in an uptrend and recently made a new higher high, continuing to outperform Bitcoin. ### 24. Gold (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Broke above the daily 20 moving average. **Key Levels:** level of demand support Gold is holding a key level of demand and has shown some improvement by getting above its daily 20 moving average. However, it has not broken through previous resistance, and the higher timeframe chart remains technically bearish. ### 25. GDX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The gold miners sector was the better-performing area last week. ### 26. Silver (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Made a lower low. **Key Levels:** previous highs resistance Silver is weaker than gold, having made a lower low and failing to break through previous highs. He has alerts set to watch key zones. ### 27. Copper (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Series of higher highs and higher lows. Copper was rejected from a rally attempt last week but remains in an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows for now. ### 28. Copper Gold (Ratio) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Improving. **Historical Comparison:** It was a particularly good indicator for inflation in 2020-2021 before it became too well-known. This ratio, a historical indicator for inflation and GDP growth, has been improving. This suggests continued economic growth and potential for inflation. ### 29. Tesla (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Collapse down, freight train down. **Key Levels:** demand zone support Tesla collapsed last week in a 'freight train down' move. It is now back into a demand zone but will likely need time to stabilize. ### 30. Google (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 320 (options level), 300 support Google was 'obliterated' and 'fell very heavily'. It is not yet at what he considers a critical support zone, though there is an options level around 320. ### 31. Healthcare (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Nice pullback within an intact uptrend. The healthcare sector chart looks very different from tech. It has had a 'nice pull back' but the overall weekly uptrend remains intact. ### 32. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 20 The VIX is not even above 20, which indicates a lack of panic in the market despite the recent drop in the NASDAQ. ### 33. Chinese Tech Stocks (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Slowing losses and starting to create structure. Chinese tech stocks like BABA and Tencent have slowed their decline and are beginning to build a base. Their charts look very different from a few weeks ago. ### 34. HSI (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Decent rally. The Hang Seng Index has had a decent rally and looks very different from the US market at this stage. ### 35. US dollar yen (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Historical Comparison:** Compares the risk of Bank of Japan intervention to the 2015 Swiss Franc de-pegging event, which caused a catastrophic flash crash. The pair is 'pretty high,' increasing the risk of Bank of Japan intervention. He warns against trading it due to this central bank risk, using the historical EUR/CHF crash as a cautionary tale about expecting the unexpected. ### 36. Japanese Yields (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Higher highs and higher lows. Japanese 1-year and 10-year yields continue to rise, putting pressure on the yen and the Bank of Japan. ### 37. Semi-Spy (Ratio) (weekly, daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Nasty looking weekly candle. **Key Levels:** decent levels of support This ratio, representing the 'backbone of this market,' has a 'nasty looking weekly' candle but is holding support for now. A breakdown here would be a major warning sign for the broader market. ### 38. MU (Micron) (quarterly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Parabolic move of 261%. **Historical Comparison:** Compares the 'crazy' chart to historical manias like GameStop, AMC, and pets.com. He calls the chart 'wild' and 'nasty,' highlighting the 261% parabolic move on a trillion-dollar business. He sees it as a sign of extreme speculation and emphasizes the need for heavy risk management. ### 39. REITs (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Slow boring grind up the wall of worry. REITs have been improving since April in a 'slow boring grind' upwards. ### 40. Treasuries (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Series of lower lows, lower highs. The treasury market still 'looks crappy' and remains in a long-term downtrend. He notes the market's resilience in withstanding a 53% loss without a crash and has set a long-term alert because it's a market everyone has forgotten about. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a 'late cycle' phase where small caps can outperform and sector rotation is key. There's a significant regime shift occurring where the market is now questioning and punishing heavy AI capex spending, a reversal from the previous 'spend at all costs' mentality. A major macro concern is the flatlining population growth in Western countries, which could be a long-term headwind. Stripping out the AI capex boom reveals an almost flatlining US economy, highlighting the market's dependence on this single theme. ## Key Calls & Predictions - This is a massive and critical earnings week, especially for Mag 7 on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely provide the 'excuse' for the market's next major move. - A break below last week's low on the NASDAQ could trigger a 'negative gamma event' and a sharp sell-off. - The performance of the Semiconductor vs. SPY ratio is the key 'backbone' to watch; if it breaks down, it's a major warning for the entire market. - A lower low on the Magnificent 7 index could signal a much deeper pullback for the NASDAQ. - Extreme caution is warranted when trading markets with heavy central bank intervention, like the USD/JPY, due to the risk of sudden, unpredictable moves. ## All Instruments Mentioned UK oil, US oil, KOSPI, NASDAQ, Apple, Google, Apple to Google Ratio, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Magnificent 7, SpaceX, US 500, RSP, Dow, Junk Bonds, LQD, MOVE, BOW (High Yield), Financials, KRE, Semiconductors, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, GDX, Silver, Copper, Copper Gold (Ratio), Tesla, Healthcare, VIX, Chinese Tech Stocks, BABA, Tencent, HSI, US dollar yen, Japanese Yields, Euro Swiss, Semi-Spy (Ratio), MU, REITs, Treasuries --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-02 02:08:09*