# Wall Street Just Made Its Biggest Semiconductor Bet in 2 Years... **Date:** 2026-07-28 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygt4zJCJQRM) ## Main Thesis Wall Street has made a massive bet on semiconductors, evidenced by the largest trading volume in two years, amidst a broader market divergence where tech is weakening significantly while defensive sectors hold up. Upcoming big tech earnings and a Fed decision are poised to be critical turning points for a market grappling with liquidations and lost confidence in key sectors. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Semiconductors (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** lower low **Key Levels:** 520 put support, 540 put support **Historical Comparison:** The huge volume day is compared to August 2024, which also involved Bank of Japan and carry trade concerns. A study by Blue Kurdic on performance after a 20%+ drawdown since the 1990s is also referenced, noting only 28.6% of the time did the market turn bullish over the next 9 months in similar situations. A massive volume day, the largest in almost two years, has occurred in semiconductors. This is seen as a significant move from Wall Street. The market is technically weak, having just made a lower low, and confidence is lost, which often means a long recovery. However, this volume spike is occurring at key options put support levels (540 and 520), which is where a rally would need to start if one is to materialize. The market is in a critical spot, waiting for confirmation. ### 2. QQQ (Nasdaq 100) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 680 support (20 weekly moving average), 640 support (previous resistance), 50 weekly moving average support The QQQ has reached and is now moving below the critical 20 weekly moving average, around the 680 level. The weekly close is all-important. A close below this level, where many puts are located, could trigger heavy negative gamma and a sell-off towards the next major support levels, which are the 50 weekly moving average and the 640 area. ### 3. S&P 500 (Hindenburg Omen) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** The current choppy market action is similar to a standard midterm election year. There have been eight Hindenburg Omen readings in the last two months. Atkinson notes that it's the cluster of readings, not a single one, that matters. This typically leads to a choppy, 'up, down, and all around' market, which is exactly what is being observed in the S&P 500. ### 4. ARM (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Discussed in the context of upcoming earnings. The options market is pricing in a very large plus or minus 15% move for the stock. ### 5. Apple (AAPL) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** making higher highs In contrast to other tech stocks, Apple is making higher highs. The options market is pricing in a much smaller plus or minus 4.3% move for its earnings. Atkinson suggests its relative strength may be because it 'didn't go as hard into AI,' which could be a positive if the market loses faith in AI spending. ### 6. Nvidia (NVDA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** A potential inverse head and shoulders has not eventuated. Nvidia is getting 'really hit' and a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern has failed to play out as there has been no resistance breakout. Furthermore, its credit default swaps are being watched closely, as the market is no longer rewarding its big data center and financing deals, which is a 'scary' development. ### 7. Oracle (ORCL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** falling kind of off a cliff Oracle's credit default swaps have been making new higher highs, indicating rising risk perception. The stock itself is described as 'falling kind of off a cliff' and is part of a group of stocks facing questions and speculation. ### 8. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Highlighted to show the scale of the recent move in semiconductors. A chart showed that one day's trading volume 'smashed the traditional 90-day volume,' reinforcing the thesis of a massive institutional move in the sector. ### 9. CXMT (None) **Bias:** BULLISH China's state-backed memory chip company surged 466% in its market debut. This is cited as an example that 'speculation is alive and well,' but also highlights the kind of leveraged chasing that is causing problems in other markets. ### 10. Corporate Bonds (Investment Grade) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH High-quality investment-grade corporate bonds are starting to get punished. This is attributed to the hyperscalers' presence in this debt market, with investors now demanding a higher return. This could become a problem for growth if it deters these companies from issuing more debt. ### 11. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The VIX is not showing huge movements, suggesting the market is not in a full-blown panic. The sell-off appears contained to the semiconductor/tech sector and is not yet a systemic failure. ### 12. Volatility of the VIX (VVIX) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The VVIX has risen but has not passed concerning levels. This reinforces the view that there is no 'systemic failure in the markets' at this point. ### 13. US Dollar (DXY) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows The US dollar has moved to a new higher high. The chart pattern is described as consolidating and moving up, creating a series of higher highs and higher lows. ### 14. USD/JPY (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** daily 20 moving average The US dollar is strengthening against the yen, and the Bank of Japan may need to intervene soon. This could put pressure on the carry trade. The daily 20 moving average is a key level to watch; a break below it could be a warning sign for market liquidity. ### 15. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** downward trend Silver remains in a higher time frame downward trend (lower lows and lower highs), but some structure is starting to appear at key levels. Volume has been increasing recently. ### 16. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** downward trend **Key Levels:** 4200 Similar to silver, gold is in a downward trend but is showing some structure. Volume has been increasing. The 4200 level is being watched very closely. ### 17. KOSPI (Cosby) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward channel **Key Levels:** 5,000 support The KOSPI is in a 'beautiful downward channel,' making lower lows and lower highs and liquidating leveraged traders. It was down 10.3% in the session. It is not yet at a clear technical support, with many looking towards the 5,000 level, which is still further down. Its decline has negative implications for semiconductors. ### 18. TSM (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** weekly 20 moving average TSM is holding on but is down in after-hours. It reacted at the weekly 20 moving average, but last week's candle is described as 'horrendous,' 'nasty,' and 'negative'. ### 19. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 110 The stock continues to fall, trading at 110. It is now down 51% from its peak. ### 20. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs **Key Levels:** 300 The stock was punished after discussing its move into AI. It is approaching the critical 300 level and remains in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. ### 21. Microsoft (MSFT) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** resistance Microsoft is facing off against a resistance level ahead of its major earnings report this week. ### 22. Meta (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Meta is 'continuing to get pummeled'. ### 23. Healthcare (None) **Bias:** BULLISH An example of the 'old economy' doing well. The sector was up and has been outperforming the S&P 500 since the beginning of June, indicating a defensive rotation in the market. ### 24. Healthcare to S&P 500 Ratio (None) **Bias:** BULLISH This ratio chart shows healthcare has been improving relative to the S&P 500 since early June. This is highlighted as the way institutions analyze the market, focusing on relative performance and sector rotation. ### 25. US 500 (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** trapped within a range **Key Levels:** 7,300 for the major put support, 7,400 on the zero DTE The US 500 is a 'totally different looking market' and is trapped in a range. It's a defensive market with more stocks moving down than up. Options levels show major put support at 7,300, with the market sitting around 7,400 on zero DTE. ### 26. Bitcoin (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** at the bottom end of a trend line **Key Levels:** 38 critical resistance Bitcoin is struggling at a critical resistance point of 38. It is also sitting right on the bottom end of a trend line, making it a very important zone. ### 27. Ethereum (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** daily 20 moving average Ethereum is still holding the daily 20 moving average, which is a critical zone for the asset. ### 28. Semiconductors to S&P 500 Ratio (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Described as one of the most important charts in the market, representing the 'backbone of the market'. Atkinson states this ratio is 'still holding up at this stage'. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a divergent regime where tech/semiconductors are experiencing a severe sell-off and loss of confidence, while 'old economy' indices (like the DAX) and defensive sectors (like Healthcare) are holding up or outperforming. This rotation is characteristic of institutional repositioning. There is a focus on the carry trade, which could be unwound if the Bank of Japan intervenes in USD/JPY, creating a potential liquidity problem. The current choppy price action in the broader market is also being compared to a typical midterm election year. ## Key Calls & Predictions - This week's earnings season could be the biggest we've seen in almost 6 years, with reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon being critical. - A weekly close for the QQQ below its 20-week moving average (around 680) would be a significant bearish signal. - Citadel has warned of a surprise Fed rate hike this week, though Atkinson is skeptical. - A potential Bank of Japan intervention in USD/JPY is a major risk to watch, as it could impact the carry trade and market liquidity. - If major tech IPOs like Anthropic or OpenAI get cancelled, it would be a sign of a real problem for the market's growth narrative. ## All Instruments Mentioned Semiconductors, NASDAQ, KOSPI, yields, US dollar yen, S&P 500, Hindenburg Omen, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, ARM, Dark Pools, DRAM, Gold, Nvidia, Oracle, VanEck Semiconductor ETF, CXMT, DAX, Junk Bonds, Corporate Bonds, VIX, Volatility of the VIX, US Dollar, Silver, TSM, SpaceX, Tesla, Healthcare, Healthcare to S&P 500 Ratio, US 500, Russell, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Semiconductors to S&P 500 Ratio --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-02 02:06:49*