# We Have Not Seen This Since 2004...
**Date:** 2026-08-02  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vT9zfL2mpMs)

## Main Thesis
The bond market is showing real fear, with treasuries falling to 2004 lows, creating a significant disconnect with the recent equity rebound. This signals a period of high uncertainty and volatility, driven by central bank interventions and a new Fed chair, with the semiconductor sector's performance being critical to determining if the sell-off is over.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. S&P 500 (US 500) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mean reversion bounce
**Key Levels:** weekly 20 moving average support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to the 2021 rally where the market bounced off the 20 MA, took a lower low, and then made a higher high

The S&P 500 came down to the weekly 20 moving average, a key mean reversion level, and experienced a strong bounce as expected. However, a historical comparison to the 2021 rally is noted, where a similar bounce was followed by a lower low before the market ultimately moved higher, emphasizing the need for patience.

### 2. 4-Year Cycle / Midterm Election Year (cyclical)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** chop and volatility, potential decline into October
**Historical Comparison:** standard 4-year midterm election cycle

In midterm election years, it's normal to see chop, volatility, and rotation. The standard cycle suggests a potential decline into the October period. However, he notes this is not a standard presidential year, so historical stats may be less reliable.

### 3. VIX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** underneath 20

The VIX chart is not showing anything significant, remaining calm underneath 20 for days. This creates a disconnect with the real volatility happening under the surface in specific stocks and sectors.

### 4. VXN (NASDAQ Volatility) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** skyrocketing

The VXN, representing NASDAQ volatility, has been skyrocketing. This indicates that the real volatility is concentrated in a few select stocks and sectors, which is not reflected in the broader VIX.

### 5. KOSPI (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend line, rejection
**Key Levels:** most traded zone support, 4-hour 20 moving average resistance

Referred to as 'Cosby', this is a key chart for cross-correlation. It bounced fiercely from the 'most traded zone' but was then rejected at the 4-hour 20 moving average, closing underneath it. It remains a very important chart to watch to see if the sell-off is over.

### 6. SOX (Semiconductor Index) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lost market structure, entered a bear market
**Historical Comparison:** compared to the dot-com boom, citing the similar 'picks and shovels' concept

The semiconductor index lost its market structure and entered a bear market. The monthly chart looks 'nasty' with three large consecutive down candles. The current situation is compared to the dot-com boom due to the similar hardware-focused investment theme.

### 7. US 30-Year Yields (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR BONDS)
**Pattern:** pushing up

The 30-year yields are pushing up, which is seen as the market 'calling the bluff' of the new Fed chair. This rise in yields is sending treasuries to 2004 price levels.

### 8. US 30-Year Fixed Mortgages (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR HOUSING)
**Key Levels:** 6.66%
**Historical Comparison:** notes it was higher in 2025, but current levels are at record median home prices

30-year fixed mortgages have reached 6.66%. While they were higher in 2025, this is occurring alongside record median home prices, which is a worry.

### 9. Treasuries (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend
**Key Levels:** lowest levels since 2004
**Historical Comparison:** at 2004 price levels

Treasuries have fallen to their lowest levels since 2004, a move described as 'almost shocking'. They have been in a general downward trend for years.

### 10. RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

The equal-weighted market is in a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the broad market has not freaked out and the sell-off is concentrated in tech, not broad-based.

### 11. RSP vs QQQ (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR BROAD MARKET) / BEARISH (FOR TECH)
**Pattern:** significant RSP outperformance

In July, the RSP rose 1.1% while the QQQ fell 6.6%, a differential of about 7.7%. This shows significant outperformance by the equal-weighted market and indicates rotation is occurring under the surface.

### 12. DXY (US Dollar Index) (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** crushed lower but technically still in an uptrend

The US dollar was 'crushed' during the week, largely due to Bank of Japan intervention. Despite the sharp fall, the monthly chart is still technically in an uptrend.

### 13. USD/JPY (daily, weekly, monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** intervention pushed price down to a key trend line
**Key Levels:** 164 resistance, 158 support

After weakening to almost 164, joint intervention from Japan and South Korea crushed the pair down to 158, right into a key technical trend line. A change of trend here could have further implications for the treasuries market.

### 14. BofA High Yield Index Adjusted Spread (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RISK-OFF SIGNAL)
**Pattern:** upward movement, potential trend change
**Historical Comparison:** first significant movement since February

This high-yield spread, an indicator of risk, showed upward movement for the first time since February. A continued move higher would signal a trend change towards risk-off and a broader-based sell-off.

### 15. MOVE Index (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RISING BOND VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** on the move

The MOVE Index, measuring bond market volatility, is also 'on the move'. This suggests volatility is starting to enter the bond market itself, which is a key development to track.

### 16. Gold (weekly, monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation

Gold was described as a 'yawnfest', not doing much. The monthly close does not exude confidence. He is watching for what large transactions (dark pools) do around this area.

### 17. IAU & GLD (Gold ETFs) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pool activity detected

Both IAU and GLD saw some 'sneaky darkpool transaction' activity. While it's early days, this is the beginning of potential structure formation.

### 18. Silver (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** held down by daily 20 moving average

Silver is similar to gold and not doing much. It is being held down by the daily 20 moving average.

### 19. Oil (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce and stabilization
**Key Levels:** most traded area support

Oil bounced off its most traded area and appears to be stabilizing. Energy stocks have been improving, and oil posted a strong weekly close, almost making a new high.

### 20. Semiconductor/SPY Ratio (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR SEMICONDUCTORS)
**Pattern:** underperformance

The ratio of semiconductors to the S&P 500 is 'not looking too good', indicating that semiconductors are underperforming the broader market.

### 21. QQQ (Nasdaq 100) (daily, weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend line (daily)
**Key Levels:** 670 support, 710 resistance

The QQQ is in a confused state. It had a positive weekly close, but the daily chart remains in a downward trend. Key options levels are put support around 670 and call resistance around 710.

### 22. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation / pit

The S&P 500 is described as 'trapped as trapped can be' in a consolidation 'pit' that has lasted for months. A warning is issued that when this pattern breaks, it can be very volatile.

### 23. SanDisk (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs (medium term)
**Key Levels:** 1,600 resistance

With earnings approaching, SanDisk is a key stock to watch. It is currently in a medium-term downtrend. A break above 1,600 could signal a relief rally, but for now, the trend is down.

### 24. Tesla (TSLA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** fell into support
**Key Levels:** 300 support

Tesla fell into an important support level around the 300 zone, which is identified as a 'put wall area' from the options market.

### 25. Chinese Market (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** most traded zone resistance

The Chinese market has been in a series of higher highs and higher lows, a totally different trend from US markets. It has now reached its 'most traded zone', which is acting as resistance.

### 26. Bitcoin (BTC) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding, but with a loss of trend line

Bitcoin is 'still holding its own' but has experienced a 'little bit of a loss of trend line'. There has been no new upward closure.

### 27. Ethereum (ETH) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 2150 potential target

Ethereum is 'still doing okay', with a potential for it to reach a level like 2150.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a regime of high uncertainty and intermarket stress, characterized by a major disconnect between the bond market, which is showing 'real fear' with treasuries at 2004 lows, and the equity market's recent rebound. This is driven by a new Fed chair creating policy uncertainty and active currency interventions by the Bank of Japan and South Korea, which could be impacting the treasury carry trade. There is also clear evidence of sector rotation, with the broad-based, equal-weighted market (RSP) outperforming tech (QQQ), and extreme volatility concentrated in a few mega-cap names.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Treasuries have fallen to their lowest levels since 2004, a major warning sign.
- The bond market is showing 'real fear' and is 'calling the bluff' of the new Fed chair.
- The KOSPI ('Cosby') chart is a critical indicator to watch to determine if the market sell-off is over.
- Pay attention when central banks, like the Bank of Japan, start to 'panic' and intervene in markets.
- The S&P 500 is in a tight consolidation 'pit', and a breakout from this range could be extremely volatile.
- The reaction of the semiconductor sector will be crucial for the market's direction, as it is the 'backbone' of the market.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Treasuries, SPX, NDX, Microsoft, Amazon, VIX, Dow Jones, VXN, Apple, KOSPI, SOX (Semiconductor Index), Nvidia, US 30-Year Yields, US 30-Year Fixed Mortgages, RSP, QQQ, XLY, Palantir, AMD, SanDisk, IAU, GLD, USD/JPY, DXY, BofA High Yield Index Adjusted Spread, MOVE Index, Gold, Silver, Oil, Semiconductor/SPY Ratio, Tesla, Chinese Market, Bitcoin, Ethereum

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-02 02:01:21*