# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Markets Stabalise But Not The KOSPI, SP500, Nasdaq, Gold, AAPL **Date:** 2026-08-03 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUdSuh11Vco) ## Main Thesis The market is in a rotational phase, with the Dow showing strength while tech and hardware stocks exhibit significant weakness and face key technical resistance. Increased risks are highlighted by spiking 30-year Treasury yields and unusual central bank interventions, suggesting a cautious outlook and potential for high volatility in the coming months. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Dow Jones (monthly) **Bias:** BULLISH The Dow Jones has been up for four consecutive months, which is in stark contrast to the rest of the market. This indicates a rotational market where older companies are performing well, while the market questions the health of the tech sector. ### 2. KOSPI (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** trend line resistance **Historical Comparison:** Chart pattern looks similar to the US tech sector (XLK). Atkinson discusses the KOSPI, noting its weakness. He uses the KOSPI 200 futures to show a continuous chart, which is at a major trend line resistance. He notes its chart structure is very similar to the US tech sector, indicating it's at an important technical area. ### 3. EWY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Mentioned as the US proxy for the KOSPI. Its smaller decline (.18%) compared to the KOSPI is explained by the timing difference between the Korean market close and the US market open. ### 4. KOSPI 200 Futures (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** trend line resistance Used as a better representation of the KOSPI due to its continuous contract nature. The chart shows a significant trend line resistance and volume analysis indicates a lot of supply overhead, suggesting it's not a healthy market. ### 5. XLK (Technology Sector) (4-hour) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** trend line resistance, series of lower lows and lower highs **Key Levels:** 181 resistance The tech sector chart looks almost identical to the KOSPI futures, showing a clear trend line resistance. It is in a series of technical lower lows and lower highs. Atkinson notes that a break above 181 would be significant as it would break the downtrend. ### 6. US 30-Year Treasury (weekly, monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH The 30-year Treasury price chart shows a significant increase in risk. It had the highest monthly close since 2007 and the lowest price on Treasuries since 2004. This suggests banking intervention and disbelief in central banks' ability to combat inflation. ### 7. BofA High Yield Spread (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** coming into resistance Mentioned briefly as coming into a resistance level, indicating potential stress in the credit markets. ### 8. MOVE Index (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Mentioned as being up last week, signaling rising bond market volatility. ### 9. Semiconductors (4-hour) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** trend line resistance Semiconductors are finding resistance at trend lines, similar to the KOSPI and XLK. Atkinson is 'extremely concerned' about hardware stocks being able to return to their highs after recent large drops, noting that last week 0% of semi stocks were above their 50-day moving average, an extreme weakness signal. ### 10. IGV (Software Sector) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** broke the 200 MA Presented as a classic case of market rotation. The software sector has been moving for a while and broke its 200-day moving average, showing strength while hardware stocks have been weak. ### 11. PANW (Palo Alto Networks) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Mentioned as an example of strength within the software sector, sitting right near its highs. ### 12. CRWD (CrowdStrike) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Mentioned as another cybersecurity stock that is doing very well. ### 13. MSFT (Microsoft) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout, possible Wyckoff basing pattern Microsoft is on the move after strong earnings, representing a narrative switch for software. The chart shows a breakout from what could be considered a Wyckoff-style basing pattern. Its relative performance versus the S&P 500 only started to improve in July after a long period of underperformance. ### 14. MU (Micron) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH The stock is below its 20 and 50-day moving averages, suggesting weakness in the trend. It has lost 42%, which is a significant drop and a cause for concern, even if the long-term trend isn't technically broken yet. ### 15. NVO (Novo Nordisk) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs **Key Levels:** 60 resistance Described as a 'freight train towards the downside' with a 76% drop. It is in a clear downtrend of lower lows and lower highs and is currently at the first level of supply. If it strengthens, it could possibly go to 60. ### 16. S&P 500 (US 500) (monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The S&P 500 is described as being 'stuck in the middle' on the monthly chart. Last week it bounced from a level where many put options were located. It is currently in a rotational phase and not showing the same clear weakness as the Nasdaq. ### 17. RSP (Equal-Weighted S&P 500) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows The equal-weighted market is still strong, continuing in a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating broader market health outside of the tech giants. ### 18. Nasdaq (US 100) (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs **Historical Comparison:** The tech-led sell-off is reminiscent of the dot-com boom and bust. The Nasdaq has a 'totally different storyline' from the broader market, with a clear tech-led sell-off. It is back to resistance levels and remains in a series of lower lows and lower highs. ### 19. China (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** at resistance Mentioned briefly as being back at a resistance level. ### 20. Gold (monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Central banks, particularly China, are buying large amounts of gold, which fits a long-term 'currency war' thesis. However, the price action is not confirming this, as the monthly candle looks 'nasty' and unconvincing. A key resistance level was mentioned but the number was a clear transcription error. ### 21. Silver (monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** long-legged doji The monthly chart for silver shows a 'long-legged doji,' which indicates indecision, a point of interest, and market equilibrium. The market is described as 'trapped'. ### 22. GDX (Gold Miners ETF) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** sideways consolidation The GDX to Gold ratio is in a 'middling zone' and not providing a strong signal. The GDX chart itself is also moving sideways. ### 23. KRE (Regional Banks ETF) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Regional banks are not showing signs of stress ('not exactly freaking out'). The chart is still climbing, though a bit weaker. ### 24. XLF (Financials ETF) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows The financials sector continues to make higher highs and higher lows, indicating strength. ### 25. GS (Goldman Sachs) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Goldman Sachs is showing some signs of weakening recently. ### 26. JPM (JPMorgan) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of high highs, high lows Considered the 'gold standard' of bank charts, JPM is not showing weakness and continues in its uptrend. ### 27. USD/JPY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL This chart is critical due to the carry trade and potential central bank panic. The Bank of Japan and others seem to be intervening in a 'dodgy' manner after the semiconductor crash. The chart is pressuring a very important downside level. ### 28. AMZN (Amazon) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Amazon is up 15% and is near new all-time highs, showing significant strength. ### 29. NVDA (Nvidia) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Nvidia is described as being 'stuck in the middle of range'. ### 30. GOOGL (Google) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Google's chart 'looks okay' and has improved a little bit. ### 31. AAPL (Apple) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** generalized uptrend Apple is still in a generalized uptrend. ### 32. Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Oil fell over the weekend and is back down to critical areas. The direction is 'tough to tell'. ### 33. XLE (Energy Sector ETF) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Despite the drop in oil prices, the energy stocks 'don't even care.' XLE was only down 1.2% when a larger drop was expected, showing resilience and strength in the sector. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a distinct rotational regime, where tech and hardware stocks (Nasdaq, KOSPI, Semiconductors) are weak and facing resistance, while 'old economy' stocks (Dow) and other sectors like software (IGV) and financials (XLF) are showing strength. This divergence is compared to the dot-com bust, where tech crashed first while the rest of the market rotated before eventually succumbing. A major macro theme is the increasing risk signaled by the bond market, with 30-year yields spiking to 2007 highs. Furthermore, there is a strong focus on central bank activity, with a suspicion that institutions like the Bank of Japan are starting to panic and intervene, which is a critical signal for markets. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Volatility could be here to stay for the August-October period. - He is 'extremely concerned about the hardware stocks being able to go back to their highs.' - A warning that 'when central banks start to panic, you should be paying attention, a lot of attention.' - The current environment is a 'sector pick rotation market.' - The next two to three months could be the most important period for markets since late 2021. - Advises ignoring news headlines and focusing on price action, data, and flows to avoid confusion. ## All Instruments Mentioned Dow Jones, KOSPI, EWY, KOSPI 200 Futures, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Gold, AAPL, XLK, US 30-Year Treasury, BofA High Yield Spread, MOVE Index, Semiconductors, IGV, PANW, CRWD, Microsoft, MSFT, SPY, SPCE, MU, Gemini, Claude, ChatGPT, OpenAI, Anthropic, NVO, RSP, China, Silver, GDX, KRE, XLF, Goldman Sachs, GS, JPMorgan, JPM, US Dollar/Yen, USD/JPY, Amazon, AMZN, Nvidia, NVDA, Meta, Google, GOOGL, Oil, XLE --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-08 23:01:57*