# Wall Streets Biggest Bear Has A Warning... **Date:** 2026-08-05 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onXJ5Pn6w4g) ## Main Thesis The market is sending conflicting signals, with Michael Burry warning of a 1987-style crash while major indices make new highs amid strong earnings and a positive gamma squeeze. A key underlying theme is central banks, like South Korea's, accumulating physical gold, suggesting a potential long-term shift in the fiat currency system. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** IPO dance Discussed its first earnings report, which had a mixed market reception, causing the stock to sell off 8% in after-hours trading. Revenue was up 92% year-over-year, beating expectations, but the company is not profitable. Atkinson describes its price action as a 'typical IPO dance' and suggests it could take 12 to 18 months to find a bottom. ### 2. Gold (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** consolidation A major macro story is developing as central banks (South Korea, China) are buying physical gold. South Korea is buying for the first time since 2013. On the chart, gold is holding around a key level and trying to reclaim the daily 20 moving average, but the macro story alone has not been enough to get it going yet. It is 'starting to look a little bit better on the charts'. ### 3. S&P 500 (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** new high, squeeze **Key Levels:** 7600 call resistance **Historical Comparison:** Historically, new highs after 42+ days in a range tend to be positive. Made a new all-time high, which is historically a positive signal, not a bearish one. The market bounced off the weekly 20 moving average. The recent rally was a 'huge squeeze' that reversed the prior week's 'giant rejection candles' and was fueled by a positive gamma event after breaking the 7600 call resistance level. ### 4. US Equities vs. Rest of World (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** valuation reset A chart showed that the valuation of US equities relative to the rest of the world has reset back to its 2020 range. The post-COVID premium the US market held has compressed, largely due to the recent pullback in semiconductors and tech stocks. ### 5. S&P 500 Information Technology (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** compression The forward P/E ratio for the IT sector is back to 2022 levels and is trading below its average of the last 4-5 years. This is not because earnings are bad, but because the market is pricing in a compression in the future rate of growth. ### 6. Semiconductors (4-hour) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** improvement against the trend line Dark pool data showed buying activity near the recent low. The 4-hour chart shows a technical improvement against the trend line. However, leadership has waned, and the hardware side of the sector remains a key concern. ### 7. KRU (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** dark pool clusters This 3x bull ETF saw its first, fifth, and sixth largest dark pool clusters ever recorded, indicating very large transactions are occurring around the current level. ### 8. Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** key level of support The second-largest transaction ever was recorded in the dark pools right at a key support level. Atkinson is ignoring geopolitical news and focusing on the price action, noting it's a chart to watch very closely at this support. ### 9. Gold Miners (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** consolidation A chart from Tavi Costa shows gold miners are making 'bonkers money'. The sector has consolidated around a level where large transactions have come in, which could be demand building or structural creation after a recent collapse. ### 10. US 30-Year Treasury (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The selloff in treasuries is a concern, but 'until the market cares, the market doesn't care.' Other bond indicators like high yield option spreads and junk bonds are not showing signs of systemic stress yet. ### 11. USD/JPY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** support The pair collapsed into support but held for now. It has not entered what Atkinson calls the 'fear of the unknown' or a 'freakout phase'. ### 12. DXY (Dollar Index) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The Dollar Index is still hovering around the same level as the previous session. ### 13. Copper (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** pressuring two time rejection area Copper is improving and is currently pressuring a key resistance area where it has been rejected twice before. The weekly close will be important. ### 14. Silver (daily, weekly, monthly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** long-legged doji Silver is outperforming Gold, having held and closed above its daily 20 moving average. It is moving more aggressively and putting pressure on its previous high. The monthly chart just closed as a long-legged doji, signifying indecision. ### 15. Software Sector (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** monster day **Key Levels:** 107 area resistance The software sector had a 'monster day' and has been strengthening. It is not quite back to its recent peaks, such as the 107 area. ### 16. Palantir (PLTR) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** squeeze **Key Levels:** big resistance or supply line The stock experienced a 'wild move', squeezing almost 30% in a single day. It ran straight into a major resistance and supply line. ### 17. Microsoft (MSFT) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** squeeze, ridiculous candle **Key Levels:** resistance supply Described as a 'wilder move' than Palantir in terms of market capitalization added. The stock squeezed rapidly with a 'ridiculous candle' straight into a resistance/supply area. ### 18. XLK (Technology Sector ETF) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher high, breakout The technology sector has 'technically improved.' It made a higher high and broke through its trend line, so it no longer looks as weakened as it did previously. ### 19. Semiconductor Hardware ('Cosby') (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** underperformance The hardware side of semiconductors (referred to as 'Cosby', likely a transcription error) is not performing as well as broadband tech. This weakness is described as 'the source of concern for the bulls longer term' and could be a signal that the market has seen the top of earnings growth. ### 20. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 300 level The stock is still holding around the 300 level. ### 21. Chinese Stocks (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** resistance level Chinese stocks have been improving but remain at a resistance level. ### 22. Dow Jones (DJI) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** new squeeze, new highs The Dow Jones Industrial Average made new highs in what was described as a squeeze, marking four consecutive months of gains. ### 23. NASDAQ (NDX) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** squeeze The NASDAQ also experienced a 'face rips it' squeeze day. ### 24. QQQ (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 710 level The aggressive rally was attributed to market makers hedging offside options contracts after the market pushed through key levels like 710 on the QQQ. ### 25. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** range-bound There is not much to report on Bitcoin as it remains stuck in a range between support and resistance. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a period of sector rotation, with technology and software taking leadership from defensives. There's a warning that a new Fed chair historically leads to instability and a volatile, 'kangarooy style market,' especially heading into midterm elections. A major developing macro story is the coordinated physical gold buying by central banks (South Korea, China), potentially as a backing for their currencies against fiat, which could shake up the global financial system. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Michael Burry warns of a major top and a potential 1987-style decline. - New all-time highs are historically a positive signal, not a bearish one, suggesting a possible August rally. - Expect significant volatility in the September-October period, which is typical for midterm election years. - The hardware side of the semiconductor sector is a key area to watch; its weakness could signal that the top of the earnings cycle has been reached. - Central bank gold buying is a major long-term story to watch over the next 6 to 12 months. ## All Instruments Mentioned Dow Jones, S&P 500, equal weighted markets, SpaceX, Starlink, Gold, semiconductors, US equities, Microsoft, Information Technology sector, software, clean energy, solar, Palantir, KRU, Oil, gold miners, US 30-year Treasury, high yield option spreads, junk bonds, USD/JPY, DXY, Copper, Silver, XLK, Cosby (Semiconductor Hardware), Tesla, Chinese stocks, NASDAQ, QQQ, Bitcoin --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-07 23:02:31*