# Wall Street Has A New Number 1... **Date:** 2026-08-12 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAnx5YCsm0s) ## Main Thesis The market is at a critical juncture ahead of CPI data, highlighted by a massive dark pool print in oil (USO). While the AI-driven rally has been strong, weakness in semiconductors and rising treasury yields pose a significant threat, creating uncertainty and a need for patience. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. USO (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A massive dark pool transaction, the number one by volume, was seen in USO ahead of CPI data. This is significant as oil is a key inflation factor and these large prints can sometimes cluster near important market turning points, though it's not immediately clear if it was a buy or sell. ### 2. US Housing Market (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 1.5 millionish units (current supply), 2 million units (level closer to GFC supply) **Historical Comparison:** Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Housing inventory has hit a new peak, the worst since 2019, showing more supply and less demand. The number of buyers has dropped to levels not seen in a very long time. Current supply is around 1.5 million units; if it gets past 2 million, it would be closer to pre-GFC levels. The dynamic is different from the GFC as many owners have cheap rates, but if panic sets in, things could go bad quickly. ### 3. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 7800 (bull target reached) Ahead of inflation figures, the market's reaction has been a 'coin flip' over 5-day periods post-CPI, though recent moves have been large (2-3%). The 10-day trend tends to be 'whatever dips is bought up'. A major bull target of 7800 has been reached. The market is in a potential August lull before midterm election season volatility picks up. ### 4. US 30-Year Treasury Yield (None) **Bias:** BEARISH (ON BONDS), BULLISH (ON YIELDS) The 30-year treasury yield is at a new high. If it continues to spike up and treasuries keep falling, it could create panic from central banks. This is a key market to watch. ### 5. US Treasuries (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** Levels not seen since 2004 (23-year low) Treasuries have hit a 23-year low, with yields around 5.17%. This drop puts significant pressure on the property market and increases borrowing costs for companies, which could be a problem for the debt-fueled AI buildout. ### 6. USD/JPY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea, and the US intervened last week in the US dollar yen. This indicates stress in the carry trade, which could spill over into other markets if it becomes a larger problem. ### 7. Solar and Clean Energy (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Pattern:** structural base, potential recovery After being beaten down, solar and clean energy are showing signs of a pickup and rotation. They are potentially finding a structural base to rally again. The chart shows signs of improvement like breaking downward trend lines and closing above moving averages, but it's just the beginning of a potential recovery. ### 8. NASDAQ (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** dot-com boom The NASDAQ has seen a recent sell-off. An analog to the dot-com boom shows a similar sell-off around this period, after which the market continued to rally for some time. This suggests the current bull market could extend for 5-6 years, possibly into 2027, if it follows that path. ### 9. Bitcoin (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback in time Bitcoin is underperforming gold and is at the bottom of a 'Bitcoin vs Gold' oscillator, suggesting it's not expensive relative to gold. Flows were super negative a few weeks ago, indicating potential capitulation, but were negative again in the last 24 hours ahead of a big decision on Friday. It is trapped in a 'pullback in time' and the key is to be patient and react, not predict. ### 10. Silver (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** rallying off 20 moving average **Key Levels:** 71-72 supply level Silver closed above its 20 moving average last week and has been rallying since. It looks like it could hit the next supply level around the 71-72 area and is currently finding a lot of strength. ### 11. Gold (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** 20/50 cross on the daily approaching **Key Levels:** 4500 or 4700 next major volume nodes A big dark pool transaction a few weeks ago now looks like an institutional buy, as the market has rallied since. Seasonality for August is typically strong for gold. It is approaching a 20/50 cross on the daily chart and could be heading for the next major volume nodes around 4500 or 4700. ### 12. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend (lower lows and lower highs) **Key Levels:** 558 put support, 600 call resistance Semiconductors are the 'backbone of this market' and must be watched carefully. They are currently in a downward trend of lower lows and lower highs. If they can't recover, it could suggest peak earnings have been seen for the biggest driver of US GDP, which would mean slower growth ahead. ### 13. Cosby (likely KOSPI) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend (lower lows and lower highs) Mentioned in the context of hardware stocks, this index is continuing to make downward lower lows and lower highs. It has not yet shown market structure to stop the downtrend. ### 14. Blue Owl Capital (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** potential dead cat bounce This private equity stock was getting 'absolutely thrashed' at the beginning of 2026. Recently, it has seen a return of strength. While it could be a 'dead cat bounce,' it illustrates the saying 'if it's in the press, it's often in the price,' as it started to rally after all the negative articles. ### 15. US Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 86.70 resistance, 74 support Watching key levels of 86.70 and 74. A break above 86.70 could see oil go much higher, while a break below 74 could suggest a new low. There is a discrepancy between the oil price and oil stocks, which are performing very well. ### 16. Energy Stocks (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders Energy stocks are finding strength and could be making a new high this week. The chart shows a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern, which could suggest more shocks are to come. This is happening while no one is talking about it. ### 17. JP Morgan (None) **Bias:** BULLISH JP Morgan's strength indicates that the market is not considering financials to be weak. The chart looks 'all good,' suggesting the market isn't worried about the potential debt crisis from rising rates yet. ### 18. Healthcare (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH Healthcare has been improving slowly in the background. ### 19. Biotech (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** 2021 rally with Kathy Wood funds Biotech has also been improving slowly. It's watched as an indicator of risk-on sentiment and was part of the 'excess phase' in 2021 along with ARK-style funds. ### 20. Google (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback in time, sideways rotation Google gave up some gains and has a 'nasty looking candle.' It is in 'chop city,' which is described as a pullback in time or a sideways rotation. ### 21. Amazon (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback after all-time high Amazon dropped 2% after making an all-time high. This suggests the market is taking a breather after a massive thrust move. ### 22. Chinese Stocks (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH **Pattern:** hit most traded areas and found resistance Chinese stocks have hit their most traded areas and are finding resistance, similar to other markets taking a breather. ### 23. QQQ (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 720-730 call resistance The Q's have come up to the most traded area, which is close to the call resistance between 720 and 730. The market is at a very important key correlation zone. ### 24. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** sell the rumor, buy the fact **Key Levels:** original IPO technical price The stock moved just above its original IPO technical price before selling off slightly. This was a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' event, as the common perception was that an unlock would cause the stock to go down, but it had already gone down beforehand. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The analysis highlights a critical intermarket relationship between falling treasuries (rising yields), a weakening housing market, and the corporate debt needed for the AI buildout. A historical analog is drawn between the current NASDAQ rally and the dot-com boom, suggesting the bull market could extend for several more years. Sector rotation is evident, with beaten-down areas like clean energy showing signs of life while market leaders like semiconductors are weakening. The carry trade (USD/JPY) is a background risk due to recent central bank interventions. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Watch semiconductors and hardware stocks very carefully. If they can't recover, it could suggest we've seen peak earnings. - CPI data is a coin flip, but recent moves have been large. Patience could be key as markets are at an important correlation zone. - If US housing supply gets past 2 million units, we are starting to get closer to the levels of supply before the global financial crisis. - If the 30-year treasury yield keeps spiking up, it could start to create a bit of panic from the central banks. - Patience, react, don't predict is the key for Bitcoin's current range-bound trading. ## All Instruments Mentioned USO, US Housing Market, S&P 500, US 30-Year Treasury Yield, US Treasuries, USD/JPY, Gold, Energy Stocks, Oil Services, Software, Solar and Clean Energy, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, Silver, Semiconductors, Nvidia, MBIS, Blue Owl Capital, US Oil, JP Morgan, Healthcare, Biotech, Mag 7, Google, Amazon, Chinese Stocks, QQQ, SpaceX, Cosby (likely KOSPI) --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-13 23:02:42*