# Michael Burry Doubles Down...
**Date:** 2026-08-13  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsU_v5KW7jg)

## Main Thesis
The market is in a debt-fueled AI rally where famous bears like Michael Burry are getting squeezed, a potential late-cycle signal. While systemic risks from rising consumer and government debt are growing, the market and particularly the bond market remain complacent for now, with opportunities found in sector rotation rather than the consolidating major indices.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. NBIS (Nebius) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders

Discusses Michael Burry's short position getting squeezed as the stock rose 34% in one session, far exceeding the expected +/- 16% move. Atkinson notes that Burry has reportedly re-shorted the position. He points out a potential 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern on the chart and highlights that the fifth largest transaction ever for the stock occurred near the close.

### 2. Netflix (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** Bill Ackman's previous 40% loss on his Netflix position in 2022.

Reports that Bill Ackman is buying back into Netflix after the stock has been declining. This is mentioned in the context of Ackman's previous significant loss on the stock in 2022.

### 3. FINRA Margin Debt (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** new peak

Atkinson expresses surprise that FINRA margin debt has reached a new peak in August, as he expected it to decline. He concludes that this shows debt, along with the AI narrative, is fueling the current market rally.

### 4. Cost of Servicing US Debt (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharply increasing trend

Shows a chart depicting what he calls a 'shocking' and 'depressing' increase in the cost of servicing US debt. He questions how the debt will be paid off, mentioning historical possibilities like inflating it away, creating a new currency, or defaulting.

### 5. Credit Card Debt Delinquencies (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising delinquencies
**Historical Comparison:** highest since 2011

Highlights a chart showing that 12.9% of credit card balances are now in 90+ day delinquency, the highest level since 2011. He views this as part of a systemic debt problem but notes it won't become a market issue until the bond market reacts.

### 6. Auto Loan Debt (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** at a high
**Historical Comparison:** highest since 20-30 years ago

Briefly mentions that auto loan debt is at multi-decade highs, grouping it with credit card debt as a systemic risk that the bond market is currently ignoring.

### 7. Gold (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** technical basing patterns
**Key Levels:** back above the 100 day moving average

Notes that Gold is back above its 100-day moving average, which he sees as a 'good positive sign'. He mentions data suggesting this is a favorable setup for a 3-week change, though the next few days could be shaky. He sees price action as 'slowly improving' from 'technical basing patterns' and also points to positive seasonality in August.

### 8. US Bull Market Cycles (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Historical Comparison:** Compares the current 3.8-year bull market to past cycles, including the dot-com boom.

Shows a chart comparing historical bull market lengths. With the current cycle at 3.8 years, he notes that bull markets lasting over 3 years often extend to 5 or 6 years, and sometimes as long as 12, suggesting the current rally could have more room to run.

### 9. Crude Oil (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 86.50 resistance

Describes the market as 'neutral on oil'. He notes CTA positioning is neutral after a recent 'sugar rush' and points out a divergence where price has improved slightly while CTA positioning made a lower low. He identifies 86.50 as resistance; a break above would be bullish, while a new low could lead to capitulation.

### 10. High Yield Junk Bonds (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** done nothing

Points out that high-yield junk bonds have 'done nothing,' which he interprets as a sign of complacency, indicating that the bond market is not currently worried about underlying economic risks.

### 11. LQD (Investment Grade Corporate Bonds) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dropped off a little bit

Notes that investment-grade bonds have dropped off slightly, which he suggests means the market views some of the best companies as the riskiest, possibly due to rising credit default swaps in names like Nvidia and Oracle.

### 12. Private Equity ETFs/Funds (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** improving recently

Mentions that private equity funds (like Blue Owl) have been improving recently with a lot of volume at the bottom. He questions whether this is a sustainable recovery or just a 'dead cat bounce'.

### 13. JP Morgan (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

Uses JPMorgan as a bellwether for market health. He states that its continued pattern of higher highs and higher lows suggests the 'market is intact' and that 'deregulation and debt creation is still in these markets'.

### 14. Treasuries (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Lower lows, lower highs

Briefly states that Treasuries are in a downtrend of 'Lower lows, lower highs' with not much else going on.

### 15. Yields (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** moving slightly down

Notes that yields were moving slightly down following the CPI numbers, which he considers more of a catalyst or excuse for market movement rather than a significant signal.

### 16. Oil Services (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** on the rise

Contrasts with crude oil itself, noting that oil services stocks have been 'on the rise'. He suggests this sector is pricing in a longer-duration oil crisis or conflict.

### 17. Chevron (CVX) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential pattern at resistance (unnamed)
**Key Levels:** at that resistance level

Highlights that Chevron's chart looks different from crude oil and is right at a resistance level. He asks the audience to identify a potential bullish pattern that may be forming.

### 18. Silver (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** moving up slowly

Describes silver as 'slowly moving up' and not yet at resistance. He mentions a resistance of '70', but this appears to be a mis-transcription (likely of an RSI level) and not a price level.

### 19. Semiconductors (4 hour)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** coiling
**Key Levels:** resistance

Notes a strong 2% day for semiconductors. On the 4-hour chart, he sees improvement since early August, with price breaking a trendline and now 'coiling' just below resistance. However, it has not yet made a higher high.

### 20. The Cosby (Hardware Stocks) (None)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** broke and retested a trendline, made a higher high
**Key Levels:** supply

He refers to a hardware stock index as 'The Cosby'. He notes it broke its trendline, retested it, and has now made a higher high, which are 'slow signs of improvement'. However, it is not yet through a key supply zone.

### 21. McDonald's (MCD) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend

Highlights McDonald's as a stock that has been 'bashed down' 22% from its highs. It is now at a level with previous structure and significant volume. He sees large wicks on the candles, indicating buying interest, but notes the stock is still in a larger downward trend.

### 22. Biotech (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** New higher high

Points out that the biotech sector has made a new higher high. He interprets this as a 'risk on' signal for the broader market, given that biotech is a risky sector.

### 23. Chinese Markets (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** Back to the resistance here

Briefly shows a chart of Chinese markets, noting they have rallied back to a resistance level, which he says shows the power of technicals.

### 24. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Full circle
**Key Levels:** 145 area
**Historical Comparison:** Compares its potential for options activity to Tesla.

Notes that SpaceX has come 'full circle' back to the 145 area, near its IPO level. He expects it to remain volatile and questions if it will become the new Tesla in terms of massive options trading.

### 25. Q's (QQQ) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling

States the Q's are struggling around a key resistance area where a large number of call options are sitting. He mentions a level of '7:30', which is a clear mis-transcription. A break above this resistance could lead to a 'positive gamma' move.

### 26. Tesla (TSLA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** at resistance, call resistance

Mentions that Tesla is also at a resistance level, with a 'quite a lot of call resistance' visible on the charts.

### 27. S&P (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** sideways

Describes the S&P 500 as moving sideways and consolidating, which he says 'looks kind of strong'. He notes significant sector rotation is happening beneath the surface. He mentions a resistance level of '7800', which is a clear mis-transcription.

### 28. Bitcoin (BTC) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck in between what we call a pit

States that Bitcoin has seen little movement and is stuck in a range between a high and a low. He believes it is awaiting a catalyst from a big SEC announcement on Friday.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The current market regime is described as a debt-fueled AI rally, with parallels drawn to previous bull cycles like the dot-com boom, suggesting the rally could have more room to run. There is a significant intermarket divergence: rising systemic risks from consumer and government debt (credit cards, auto loans, US debt servicing costs) are being completely ignored by the bond market (high yield junk bonds are flat). The market is also characterized by active sector rotation, with money moving between oil, metals, gold, and recently back into semiconductors, even as the major indices appear to be consolidating.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- A key warning sign for a market top could be when famous bears like Michael Burry are forced to close their short positions due to squeezes.
- The growing systemic debt issues will not become a problem for the market until the bond market starts to react; its behavior is the key trigger to watch.
- A breakout above the key call resistance in the Q's could trigger a 'positive gamma' rally.
- Bitcoin is likely awaiting a catalyst from the SEC announcement on Friday.
- While the major indices look dull ('like paint drying'), the real opportunities are found by looking 'underneath the hood' at sector rotation.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Nebius, Palantir, NBIS, Netflix, FINRA Margin Debt, Cost of Servicing US Debt, Credit Card Debt Delinquencies, Auto Loan Debt, Gold, Nvidia, Oracle, Coreweave, Super Micro, Crude Oil, LQD, High Yield Junk Bonds, Blue Owl, JP Morgan, Treasuries, Yields, Oil Services, Chevron, Silver, Semiconductors, The Cosby, McDonald's, Biotech, Chinese Markets, SpaceX, Q's, Tesla, S&P, Bitcoin

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-13 23:01:14*