# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: A New Week, Big Moves... SP500, Nasdaq, Gold
**Date:** 2026-08-17  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOX03xH5O8Y)

## Main Thesis
The market is in an inflationary boom, with broad indices like small and mid-caps making all-time highs, but there are signs of complacency as risks are being ignored. The key focus for the week is whether hardware/semiconductor stocks can break through key resistance levels, while energy, metals, and gold have been the recent outperformers.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Margin Debt (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** A previous drop occurred in the March/April period of 20125 (as stated, likely a transcription error).

The speaker, Thomas, notes that margin debt saw its first drop in a while, which can be significant. He mentions it's 'one to watch' for the bears, especially when considered alongside other forms of leverage in the market like levered ETFs.

### 2. Financials (XLF implied) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Grinding slowly higher, series of higher highs and higher lows.

Financials are described as looking 'pretty good' and still making a series of higher highs and higher lows. There are 'no real signs of weakness' in this market.

### 3. High Yield Junk Bonds (HYG implied) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

High yield junk bonds are noted as 'still staying in between,' indicating a range-bound or neutral stance.

### 4. Corporate Bonds (LQD implied) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Corporate bonds are observed to be going down, which is unusual when high yield is sideways. This is attributed to rising risks and credit default swaps for hyperscaler stocks, particularly the Magnificent 7.

### 5. US 30-Year Yield (US30Y) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Upward trend, making higher highs and higher lows.

The 30-year yield is seen as a potential concern for bears (market bulls), as it's in an upward trend and trying to make new higher highs, suggesting underlying inflation.

### 6. Diesel Futures vs WTI Crude (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Massive divergence/discrepancy.

A chart showing a huge difference between diesel futures and WTI crude is highlighted as a significant inflationary signal that not enough people are talking about. This is expected to feed into consumption and food costs.

### 7. Crack Spread (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Making higher highs and higher lows.

The crack spread has been on a 'pretty decent rally,' reinforcing the inflationary theme seen in diesel prices.

### 8. Energy Sector (XLE) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Flag

It's noted that some people consider the current pattern on XLE to be a flag, which if correct, suggests there 'could be a little bit more room to go' for energy stocks.

### 9. WTI Futures (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 82

WTI futures are sitting around 82. The chart has not made a higher high yet, but if it does, it would imply a broader market rally.

### 10. Copper (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Upward trend

Following a mention of a 'backquidation copper thing' on the London Metal Exchange, the chart is described as being in an upward trend, similar to gold.

### 11. Gold (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Series of higher highs and higher lows.

On the 2-hour timeframe, gold is in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows. Potential targets of 4530 or 4700 were mentioned but are likely transcription errors and thus omitted.

### 12. Silver (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 70

For silver, 'the question is 70.' It is currently 'stuck in a pit.'

### 13. Gold Miners (GDX) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

GDX was mentioned as one of the best-performing sectors over the last two weeks, having 'did really well.'

### 14. Salesforce (CRM) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 210 resistance

Described as a 'horrendous' and 'beaten down' stock, a laggard in the software sector. It is at a resistance around 210, and he is watching to see if it can start to move up.

### 15. Adobe (ADBE) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Similar to CRM, Adobe is described as a 'beaten down stock' that he is watching to see if it can start to move up.

### 16. Alibaba (BABA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Mentioned in the context of Chinese tech stocks, Alibaba is described as 'looking a little bit dull.'

### 17. Tencent (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Tencent was trying to rally but is now 'right back down,' indicating weakness.

### 18. Tesla (TSLA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Trapped price
**Key Levels:** 330 support, 350 resistance, 300 for all expirations

Tesla is sitting at 340, trapped in a range between roughly 330 and 350, which are key options levels. The stock is described as lacking 'structure' because it hasn't paused its moves. An anchored VWAP from the top is also mentioned as a potential tool.

### 19. Small Caps (IWM) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** New all-time high

The small-cap market is at a new all-time high, indicating market breadth and strength.

### 20. Mid Caps (MDY implied) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** New all-time high

Mid-caps are also at a new all-time high and closing on the highs, showing broad market strength.

### 21. S&P 500 (SPX) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** New all-time high

The S&P 500 is at an all-time high, with the chart just moving 'higher and higher and higher.'

### 22. Biotech (IBB/XBI implied) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Biotech is a sector he follows at this stage in a cycle and notes it has 'still been relatively strong as well.'

### 23. Micron (MU) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 50 simple moving average resistance

A hardware stock that is coming into resistance at the 50-day simple moving average, a level many people are watching. He expresses some skepticism about the level's historical importance for this stock.

### 24. SanDisk (SNDK implied) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Multiple touches of resistance
**Key Levels:** 50 daily moving average resistance

Another hardware stock finding resistance at the 50-day moving average after '1 2 3 kind of touches.' However, it was trading through that level during the stream, so a close above would be strong.

### 25. Semiconductors (SOXX) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Lower low, no higher high yet.

The semiconductor index is at a pivotal point, back at resistance. It has made a low, high, and a lower low, but has not yet made a higher high, which it was attempting to do during the stream.

### 26. Tech Sector (XLK) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Trend line breakout, grinding higher.

XLK was the first to show signs of recovery in the tech space by taking out its trend line. It is now in a 'dull' market, grinding higher with a series of higher highs and higher lows.

### 27. KOSPI (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Whipsaw / Kangaroo market

The South Korean market is seen as a 'huge warning sign for hardware moving forward' and is expected to 'whips or kangaroo all over the place.' However, it has theoretically closed above its trend lines, showing initial signs of improvement.

### 28. USO (Oil ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

A large institutional dark pool trade ('number one trade') was noted on USO. The direction (buy or sell) is unknown, and the key will be to watch for a price action move out of the current range.

### 29. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Coiling / Pitted
**Key Levels:** 62 support, 668 or 67 resistance

Bitcoin is still coiling and has not seen a closure above resistance (around 66,800/67,000) or below support (around 62,000). He is waiting for flows and price action to confirm a direction.

### 30. Software Sector (IGV implied) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The software sector hit a resistance level last week after a strong run. The sector is showing divergence, with some stocks having moved heavily while others (like CRM, ADBE) are lagging.

### 31. Microsoft (MSFT) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breakout

Microsoft has closed above a previous peak and 'theoretically looks a lot stronger.'

### 32. Google (GOOGL) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Multiple rejection wicks

Google's chart looks 'weird,' with 10 red candles out of the last 13. It is constantly rejecting a key price area, showing significant selling pressure. An alert is set for a close above this area.

### 33. AppLovin (APP) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Series of lower lows and lower highs.

The chart 'doesn't look good' and is in a clear downtrend with a series of lower lows and lower highs, lacking any market structure for a potential bottom.

### 34. The Trade Desk (TTD) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Freight train down

Described as a 'terrifying' and 'scary stock' that is a 'freight train down.' It has seen a huge spike in volume on the decline, which he calls 'panicking.'

### 35. Nvidia (NVDA) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Double bottom
**Key Levels:** 213

Nvidia has been rewarded with a new closure high after getting through the 213 level. The pattern theoretically looks like a double bottom, suggesting potential for new highs.

### 36. Circle (CRCL) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Wyckoff base forming

There are some signs of improvement, with a potential Wyckoff base forming. The chart shows three lows and a slightly higher high, but the volume is not ideal for a classic Wyckoff pattern.

### 37. SoFi (SOFI) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Creating structure
**Key Levels:** 20 resistance

SoFi is an 'interesting stock' that is currently 'creating structure.' A psychological level around 20 is noted as a potential resistance.

### 38. Netflix (NFLX) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Resistance test

Netflix is right at a resistance level. The chart shows a low and a lower low, and is currently testing that resistance.

### 39. Chainlink (LINK) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 670

Chainlink is 'just sitting there at 670 now' and, like the rest of crypto, is 'still struggling a little.'

### 40. Regional Banks (KRE) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Dull market, grinding higher.

The regional banks are described as a 'dull market' that is 'continuing to kind of flow up' and making a series of higher highs and higher lows for now.

### 41. VIX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 14, 12

The VIX is trading 'extremely low' at 14, a level that has recently been close to low points. He notes that 12 is usually a point where he pays more attention. However, he doesn't pay much attention to the VIX anymore, preferring to look at VIX structure due to the impact of 0DTE options.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The current market regime is described as an 'inflationary boom' rather than stagflation, because GDP is still growing. This is characterized by strength in metals, energy, and commodities, similar to 2021. There is a discussion of the typical cycle for new technologies like AI, which involves a 'hyper euphoric rally' followed by a realization that monetization takes time. The market is also described as being in 'full complacency mode,' ignoring numerous geopolitical and macro risks that would have caused volatility in the past.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The key question for the week is whether semiconductors and hardware can find strength and break through resistance.
- The market is in 'full complacency mode,' ignoring risks like the diesel price spike, margin debt drops, and issues in South Korea.
- Seasonally, September and October are months that bring 'the pain and the volume,' so volatility could increase.
- A systematic approach and understanding behavioral finance are critical for navigating the current and future market environment.
- The core mantra is 'Patience, react, don't predict.'

## All Instruments Mentioned
Margin Debt, Financials (XLF implied), High Yield Junk Bonds (HYG implied), Corporate Bonds (LQD implied), US 30-Year Yield (US30Y), Diesel Futures, WTI Crude, Crack Spread, Energy Sector (XLE), Copper, Gold, Silver, Gold Miners (GDX), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Alibaba (BABA), Tencent, Tesla (TSLA), Small Caps (IWM), Mid Caps (MDY implied), S&P 500 (SPX), Biotech (IBB/XBI implied), Micron (MU), SanDisk (SNDK implied), Semiconductors (SOXX), Tech Sector (XLK), KOSPI, USO (Oil ETF), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Software Sector (IGV implied), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), AppLovin (APP), The Trade Desk (TTD), Nvidia (NVDA), Circle (CRCL), SoFi (SOFI), Nokia (NOK), Netflix (NFLX), Chainlink (LINK), Regional Banks (KRE), VIX

---
*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-20 23:03:49*