# Wall Street Are Dumping This... **Date:** 2026-08-18 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anJvx2SRjhs) ## Main Thesis A massive wave of corporate debt issuance, led by big tech companies funding AI capital expenditures, is causing a sell-off in US Treasuries as investors shift to higher-yielding corporate bonds. This dynamic is creating potential market instability and is a classic symptom of a late-cycle environment. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. US Treasuries (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** freefall, waterfall **Key Levels:** 80.50 and below support **Historical Comparison:** yields reaching levels not seen since 2007 Atkinson states that US Treasuries are in 'freefall' as Wall Street shifts attention to them. He attributes this to a massive $1.5 trillion in new debt issuance, particularly $200 billion from big tech for AI, which is up 36% year-on-year. This is causing a shift from government treasuries to corporate bonds. He notes the market is now in the 'fear of the unknown' as it reaches such low levels and suggests a headline-worthy level would be 'somewhere around 80 and below', specifically '$80.50 and below' which would be the lowest point. ### 2. US Dollar Index (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 97.50 support **Historical Comparison:** Historically, when positioning gets to these extreme high levels, the dollar has often dropped off. Atkinson shows a chart indicating that US dollar positioning has reached 'pretty high extreme highs,' which he calls a 'worrying sign.' He notes that historically, the dollar index often drops from these levels. He identifies a key level, stating that a move below the '97 kind of 50 zone' could signal 'significant weakness in the dollar'. ### 3. Tech Sector (XLK/NASDAQ) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** He notes that only one time before a bear market did the market peak in June, with October and December being more common. He mentions that record shorts on tech recently led to a squeeze. However, he points out that the NASDAQ made a high for the year in June and has not returned to those levels. He also notes that while some tech stocks are making new highs, semiconductors have been struggling more. ### 4. Financials (XLF) (daily, weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** upward trend, series of higher highs and higher lows Atkinson highlights a very large dark pool transaction, the sixth largest, which occurred recently in financials. He suggests this could be a sign of a turning point, potentially leading to a pullback or decline. However, upon reviewing the charts, he concludes that financials are still in an 'upward trend' with a 'series of higher highs and higher lows' on the daily timeframe, and the weekly chart is also 'still of course bullish'. The bias remains bullish for now, but the dark pool activity is a significant warning. ### 5. Regional Banks (KRE) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows He briefly looks at the regional banks and notes that, for now, the chart is showing a 'series of higher highs and higher lows'. ### 6. Google (GOOGL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson describes Google's recent performance as 'Weak weak, guys. Not very strong.' He counts that the stock has been down for 10 of the last 13 sessions, highlighting its underlying weakness despite the broader narrative around big tech. ### 7. Magnificent 7 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He mentions that the Magnificent 7 as a group 'hasn't made a new higher high yet' and has 'kind of been stuck for a while' due to the heavy capex spending on AI infrastructure. ### 8. US Oil (USO) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He points out that USO had the number one largest dark pool transaction recently, and the market has since regained the level of the transaction. He notes that it is not at a higher high yet. ### 9. Brent Crude (None) **Bias:** BULLISH As a cross-check for oil, he looks at Brent and notes that it is 'actually closer at making a higher high' than USO, suggesting underlying strength in the oil market. ### 10. Diesel (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He shows a chart of diesel prices and exclaims, 'Look at it go. It's absolutely wild.' This is leading to concerns about transportation costs and inflation. ### 11. Energy Stocks (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** flag movement Atkinson states that energy stocks have been 'performing very well over the last two weeks' and have had another excellent session. He questions whether they could be going for a 'flag movement'. ### 12. Crack Spread (CRAK) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He notes that the crack spread is also going up and has been moving since July, reinforcing the bullish theme in the energy complex. ### 13. Chevron (CVX) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders He brings up Chevron as an 'interesting kind of chart,' noting that some people would identify an 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern on it, suggesting potential for a move higher. ### 14. Software (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** hit resistance Software stocks were 'all the rage' until last week when the sector hit a key resistance level. He states that it is now 'taking a little bit of a breather'. ### 15. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pit, series of higher highs and higher lows Gold is described as 'still sitting within the pit' but also in a 'series of higher highs and higher lows.' The bias is neutral as it consolidates. ### 16. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Silver is doing something similar to gold. It is 'not necessarily bearish, basically just having a breather after a very good run.' ### 17. Gold Stocks (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He mentions that gold stocks have had the 'best performance over the last five days' among the major sectors. ### 18. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** He compares the potential choppy price action to how Gold has traded since January ('Up, down, up, down on all round'). The semiconductor sector hit a call resistance and fell. While it is 'still slowly improving,' he expects it to be 'quite kangarooy' (choppy and sideways). He explains that the large drop was not a mistake and indicates significant profit-taking by Wall Street, which can lead to instability and large daily moves that go nowhere. ### 19. SanDisk (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout He notes that SanDisk rallied through the 50-day moving averages, which many retail traders saw as resistance. The stock made a higher high off some positive reports. ### 20. Western Digital (WDC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL In contrast to SanDisk, he mentions that Western Digital had an 'okay session but didn't make a new higher high'. ### 21. Australian Market (XJO) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He states there is not much going on with the Australian market. It made a new all-time high, fell, and is now 'sitting on the daily 20'. ### 22. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 340-350 resistance Tesla has rallied up to the '340-350 previous support' area, which is now acting as resistance. He notes that 'Call resistance is everywhere here' as it is a heavily options-traded stock. ### 23. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** IPO first bid price support SpaceX continues to trade around its 'IPO first bid price.' He notes it is becoming an options-driven market with significant call resistance building up. ### 24. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 725 put support, 730 call resistance The Nasdaq 100 is sitting at a key resistance level, which he identifies as the 'main call resistance'. A break above this could trigger a 'positive gamma event'. Put support is located just below. (Note: The stated levels of 730 and 725 appear to be transcription errors but are reported as spoken). ### 25. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows **Key Levels:** 7800 resistance The S&P 500 is still in a structure of 'higher highs and higher lows' but has slammed directly into a major resistance level where there is a 'super amount of calls'. (Note: The stated level of 7800 appears to be a transcription error but is reported as spoken). ### 26. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** range, pit Bitcoin is 'doing not much' and remains 'stuck in a range or what we call a pit.' He expects little excitement until it breaks out of this range. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis Atkinson describes the current market as a 'late cycle' environment, a phase that can last 1-3 years, and suggests we are 6-12 months into it. A key feature of this regime is the intermarket shift from lower-risk assets (US Treasuries) to higher-risk ones (corporate bonds), driven by massive debt issuance from big tech for AI capex. He also touches on the 'K economy' concept, suggesting upcoming earnings from Walmart and Nike could reveal weakness in the lower-end consumer. The analysis highlights sector rotation, with energy stocks showing significant recent strength. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The massive issuance of corporate debt for AI is creating a sell-off in US Treasuries, which is a major risk and a symptom of a late-cycle market. - A very large dark pool transaction in financials (XLF) serves as a warning of a potential turning point or pullback, despite the current bullish trend. - The semiconductor sector is expected to be 'kangarooy' (choppy and sideways) due to significant profit-taking by institutional players. - Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are running into significant call resistance levels, which could cap the upside. - A break below the '97.50 zone' on the US Dollar Index could signal the start of significant weakness. ## All Instruments Mentioned US Treasuries, Diesel, USO, VIX, Magnificent 7, Google, Anthropic, US Dollar Index, XLK, NASDAQ, Semiconductors, FINRA Margin Debt, Financials, Target, Walmart, Nike, KRE, MSTR, Brent Crude, Energy Stocks, Crack Spread, Oil Services, Chevron, Software, Gold, Silver, Gold Stocks, MU, SanDisk, Western Digital, XJO, Tesla, SpaceX, QQQ, S&P 500, Bitcoin --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-20 23:02:49*