# This Chart Is Getting Out Of Control... **Date:** 2026-08-19 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbPEtnBn0-0) ## Main Thesis The market is suddenly paying attention to debt, as rising Japanese yields and massive AI-related corporate bond issuance are creating liquidity concerns and putting pressure on US Treasuries. This is causing volatility, particularly in semiconductors which are showing signs of weakness, though the broader market's long-term uptrend remains intact for now. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. JP 10Y (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** higher highs, higher lows The Japanese 10-Year yield is described as 'going out of control' and moving at an 'astronomic price'. Atkinson notes that the Bank of Japan is losing control, and this rise in yields will put pressure on the Japanese Yen and could spill over to US yields, causing US Treasuries to drop. ### 2. US Treasuries (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** approaching potentially all-time lows **Key Levels:** below 80 Atkinson discusses how massive bond issuance from big tech is competing with US government debt, crushing liquidity and causing treasuries to fall. He states they are approaching potential all-time lows and that a drop below 80 on the ETF could be a capitulation point that causes widespread panic, but may also present a contrarian opportunity. ### 3. Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** similar to the early internet or automobile industry, where only 2-3 companies are left at the end This index is used to discuss the AI industry's dynamics, where companies are in a race to lower compute costs and be the most accurate. He notes that LLM token expenditure has fallen off, suggesting a consolidation is coming where only a few major players and some niche ones will survive, similar to other technological revolutions. ### 4. Semiconductors vs Software (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** disconnecting a little bit recently Atkinson notes a recent disconnect between semiconductors (hardware) and software. Software has seen a pickup while hardware has been more volatile, reflecting the market's uncertainty about the impact of AI on the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model. ### 5. SMH (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** trapped between call resistance and put support **Key Levels:** put support of 560 to 570, call resistance... 600 The 13th largest trade ever was seen on SMH, after which the market dropped 6% from call resistance around 600 down to put support at 560-570. This support level also aligns with an anchored VWAP from the lows. Atkinson believes the sector has lost its strength and will be a 'kangaroo style' market, questioning if this is a blow-off top. ### 6. SoFi (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Mentioned as having a couple of large dark pool trades come through. ### 7. CRM (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** previous resistance or supply peak A large dark pool trade occurred right at a previous resistance or supply peak. Atkinson also notes that the largest trade on CRM occurred at the bottom, highlighting the importance of these trades at inflection points. ### 8. NBIS (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The 11th largest dark pool trade was seen on this stock. Atkinson mentions the debate around whether the AI sector is due for a crash or just a pullback, and speculates this might be a stock a prominent short-seller is targeting. ### 9. XLF (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The 6th largest trade ever was recorded on the financials ETF. Atkinson states he pays close attention to large financial transactions as they can mark important inflection points related to debt, deregulation, and potential contagion. ### 10. US Dollar (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** paint dry at this point **Historical Comparison:** positioning is less extreme than in 2021-2022 While the price action is sideways ('paint dry'), positioning has reached pretty extreme bullish levels. This sets up the potential for a 'reverse squeeze' and fast moves down if the dollar starts to fall, as many traders are on one side of the market. ### 11. FINRA Margin Debt (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUS **Pattern:** drop from a new high Atkinson notes that because margin debt is at a new high, the recent drop is significant. He connects it to the July market wipeout and questions whether it has eliminated free capital or pushed investors into even deeper margin debt, a question he believes is critical for the coming months. ### 12. Magnificent Seven (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** absolutely like paint drying The overall index is described as moving like 'paint drying'. However, underneath the surface, individual components are moving significantly, with Meta cited as an example. ### 13. Meta (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** pushing that support Cited as an example of volatility within the Magnificent Seven, Meta was down 4.45% and is approaching a support level. The drop occurred after the company pivoted to selling some of its AI compute. ### 14. UK Oil (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** just made new high Brent oil has just made a new high, which is significant because US oil has not, indicating a divergence. This is occurring as diesel prices are skyrocketing. ### 15. US Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** hasn't gone above Contrasted with UK Oil, US Oil has not yet broken out to a new high. ### 16. Energy Stocks (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** new all-time highs, flag Energy stocks have hit new all-time highs, a move that was anticipated after the market formed a flag pattern. Atkinson suggests there could still be 'a little bit more length' in the rally. ### 17. CRACK (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows This oil refiners ETF has become popular due to its exposure to diesel. It has been moving in a series of higher highs and lows and is considered a bit extended, but interest remains high. ### 18. IGV (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback in time **Key Levels:** hit the supply The software ETF has hit a supply zone after a huge move up and is now pulling back. Atkinson expects it to enter a consolidation period, or a 'pit', to digest the recent gains. ### 19. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** tight range, channel or pit After a strong performance, Gold is now 'having a sleep' and consolidating. Atkinson views this as bullish, as the consolidation is occurring within a tight range or channel. ### 20. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** dropped a little bit more **Key Levels:** 60-ish and 61 Silver has dropped more than gold. Atkinson is patiently watching and has identified the '60-ish and 61' area as a key observation level, which corresponds to an anchored VWAP from the lows. ### 21. XJO (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** weakening The Australian market is weakening, primarily due to its banking sector. It is described as a very different market from the US at this stage. ### 22. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** floating around **Key Levels:** 145 resistance Mentioned briefly as 'just kind of floating around that 145 resistance', which he notes is pretty much the IPO price. ### 23. QQQ (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** call resistance, put support, net expiration puts, which still sit at 660 The Q's hit call resistance and dropped through put support, but remain above the major net expiration put level of 660. This is seen as weakness but not an 'absolute collapse'. The futures have not made a lower low, so the trend has not officially changed. ### 24. SPX (daily, weekly, monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 7700, 7,600 The SPX dropped below the 7700 level. While the daily and shorter timeframes are now technically more bearish, the weekly and monthly timeframes remain bullish. This creates a conflict between short-term weakness and the very large, long-term rally. ### 25. Bitcoin (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** sideways, paint drying market Described as a 'paint drying market' that is completely sideways. Atkinson advises setting alerts at the top and bottom of the range and waiting for a breakout. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The main macro theme is the growing pressure on the bond market. The Japanese 'carry trade' is under threat as JP 10Y yields rise uncontrollably, which could force Japanese investors to sell US Treasuries. Concurrently, massive bond issuance from AI-related 'hyperscalers' is competing directly with US government debt, creating a liquidity crunch for Treasuries. This shift in focus to debt and credit is a new development. Additionally, he discusses the potential for a K-shaped economy, which will be clarified by upcoming retail earnings from Walmart and Target. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The market has suddenly started paying attention to debt, which could lead to analysis of credit default swaps becoming important soon. - A drop in the US Treasury ETF below 80 could cause significant panic in the market, but may also be a contrarian buying opportunity. - The semiconductor sector (SMH) is no longer a clear leadership market and is expected to be volatile and choppy ('kangaroo style'). - Extreme bullish positioning in the US Dollar creates the risk of a sharp, fast 'reverse squeeze' if it begins to fall. ## All Instruments Mentioned JP 10Y, US Treasuries, Nasdaq, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, Semiconductors, Software, SMH, SoFi, CRM, NBIS, XLF, US Dollar, FINRA Margin Debt, Target, Walmart, Magnificent Seven, Meta, UK Oil, US Oil, Energy Stocks, CRACK, IGV, Gold, Silver, XJO, SpaceX, QQQ, SPX, Bitcoin --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-20 23:01:54*