# The Worlds Biggest Debt Markets Are Worried…
**Date:** 2026-08-21  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Y3DaF2A2F0)

## Main Thesis
Stress in the global bond markets, evidenced by rising yields and government intervention, is causing concern and leading to significant rallies in alternative assets like precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Walmart (WMT) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double topping pattern, closed below trend line

Atkinson discusses Walmart's earnings, noting a 9% drop. He points out a double topping pattern on the weekly chart and that it has closed below a key trend line. This is viewed as a worrying sign for the K-shaped economy and the health of the American consumer.

### 2. US Treasuries (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 83 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to government actions before the GFC in 2007

The bond market is described as 'starting to fracture' with the US government getting involved and panicking. This intervention is scaring large players. Treasuries found support but then dropped from a resistance level at 83. The situation is compared to what was seen before the GFC in 2007.

### 3. US Dollar (DXY) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential flag towards the downside

The US Dollar has started to weaken and could be forming a bearish flag pattern. Atkinson notes that positioning is heavily bullish, which creates a contrarian risk for a 'waterfall event' or 'reverse squeeze' to the downside. He mentions this is a classic late-cycle behavior.

### 4. Gold (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** making higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4532 support, 4,700 resistance

Gold has rallied significantly from a demand level when sentiment was extremely negative, a classic 'if it's in the press, it's in the price' scenario. It is currently sitting around the first volume node of resistance at 4532 and could potentially move to the second node at 4,700. The technical trend is a series of higher highs and higher lows.

### 5. Gold Stocks (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Historical Comparison:** coming into the global financial crisis, gold stocks went ballistic

Gold stocks have significantly outperformed gold, rising 41% over the last rolling month. This is attributed to them being profitable and writing new contracts at higher prices. Atkinson notes they are outperforming gold for the first time in a while.

### 6. Silver (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** playing catch-up
**Key Levels:** 70 resistance, 76 resistance, 88 resistance

Silver is described as the 'silver dragon' that has 'come alive', playing catch-up to gold. A key driver is the physical market in Shanghai trading at a significant premium, indicating under-supply and high demand. It is heading towards key resistance levels at 70, 76, and potentially 88.

### 7. Bitcoin (BTC) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from a coiling period
**Key Levels:** 78,000 target, 83 resistance

Bitcoin experienced a strong breakout from a long coiling period, which Atkinson attributes partly to the Treasury's intervention scaring investors into alternative assets. It is moving from one equilibrium level to another with a potential target of 78,000. However, he cautions it still needs to clear higher timeframe resistance around 83.

### 8. SPX (S&P 500) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 7,800 call resistance, 7,600 put support, 7,500 put support, 7636 anchored VWAP
**Historical Comparison:** similar to the market in 1978 (drop, rally, consolidation, rally, downturn)

Atkinson analyzes options levels, noting call resistance at 7,800 and significant put support at 7,600 and 7,500. He is watching the 7500 level in particular due to its large volume profile. He also presents a historical analog to 1978 and discusses that the current bull market, at 3.9 years, is entering the 'twilight' phase.

### 9. Consumer Discretionary vs Staples Ratio (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** showing weakness
**Key Levels:** 1.7 support

Using an equal-weight ratio to gauge consumer health, Atkinson notes it has been showing weakness since Walmart topped. He states that a break underneath the 1.7 level would be a 'serious significant issue' for the American consumer.

### 10. Agricultural Commodities (MOO) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** moved up again

The agricultural ETF (MOO) has moved up again, which is linked to the rise in diesel prices. This is seen as a sign that a 'real cost hike' is coming for food.

### 11. Nutrient (NTR) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Mentioned as an example of a large agricultural stock that is moving up, rising 3.72% in the last 24 hours due to rising diesel costs impacting the food supply chain.

### 12. Corporate Bonds (LQD) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** support

Corporate bonds (LQD) are noted as having been 'saved' and are finding support, which is part of the broader story in the debt markets.

### 13. 10-Year US Treasury Yield (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** 4.75 highs

The 10-year yield is rising and getting close to its highs of 4.75. Atkinson states that Wall Street is putting pressure on the government and that the weekly close will be very important.

### 14. 30-Year US Treasury Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Briefly mentioned as being controlled by the market itself and is shown to be rising.

### 15. US Oil (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding itself pretty well

US Oil is described as a 'dull market' but is holding steady and not looking weak.

### 16. UK Oil (Brent) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** going up a little bit more

Brent crude is stronger than US oil and is moving up, which suggests geopolitical tensions are continuing.

### 17. Oil Refineries (CRAK) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** going up up up

The oil refineries ETF has been rallying strongly, which highlights the 'huge discrepancy' between diesel prices and crude oil.

### 18. Energy vs SPY Ratio (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** just made a new high

This ratio just made a new high, indicating that energy stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 and putting pressure on the broader market.

### 19. Biotech (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pullback

Biotech was the 'talk of the town' 24 hours ago after a huge rally, but is now having an expected pullback.

### 20. Moderna (MRNA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 195 resistance

Used as an example of the wild moves in biotech, having rocketed up to around 195 in the pre-market, which is very close to a technical resistance level.

### 21. Semiconductors (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** kangarooy

The semiconductor sector is described as 'very kangarooy,' meaning it is choppy and moving up and down without clear direction. Atkinson suggests the real opportunities have been in other markets.

### 22. Gold Stocks vs Gold Ratio (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** large base structure
**Key Levels:** 03 target

This ratio is approaching a critical zone that has been over 10 years in the making. It is coming off a large base structure or 'pit', and Atkinson speculates it could be starting a period of outperformance, potentially heading to a .03 level.

### 23. China Stocks (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 26,000 resistance

Chinese stocks have been improving and are in a nice consolidation. They are currently putting pressure on a key technical volume node resistance at 26,000. A close above could open up the next levels.

### 24. Ethereum (ETH) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** first resistance

Ethereum is also performing well but is noted to be 'slamming straight into that first resistance' level on its chart.

### 25. Q's (Nasdaq 100) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 700 put support

Analysis of options levels shows significant put support for the Q's at the 700 level, from both zero DTE and net expiration options.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The main macro theme is the fracturing of the bond market, with rising yields forcing government intervention, which is compared to the pre-GFC 2007 period. This is causing a flight of capital from treasuries into alternative assets like Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin. The market is also described as being in a 'kangaroo style' due to confused sentiment. Other themes include the 'K-shaped economy' showing consumer weakness at the low end, rising diesel prices causing inflation in food, and the US dollar weakness being a classic 'late cycle' signal.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The bonds market is starting to fracture a little bit here, and the American government is of course getting involved.
- If we go underneath 1.7 on the Consumer Discretionary vs Staples ratio, I think we could have a serious significant issue on our hands.
- The silver dragon has come alive here... and it's maybe heading towards 70.
- 7500 lots of puts interesting level for the S&P.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Silver, Gold stocks, Gold, Bitcoin, Walmart (WMT), US Bonds / Treasuries, US Dollar (DXY), Financials, Corporate Bonds (LQD), 10-Year US Treasury Yield, 30-Year US Treasury Yield, US Oil, UK Oil (Brent), Oil Refineries (CRAK), Energy vs SPY Ratio, Biotech, Moderna (MRNA), Semiconductors, Gold Stocks vs Gold Ratio, China Stocks, Ethereum (ETH), SPX (S&P 500), Q's (Nasdaq 100), Consumer Discretionary vs Staples Ratio, Agricultural Commodities (MOO), Nutrient (NTR)

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-21 23:04:09*