# Wall Street Is Doing Something Strange Again... **Date:** 2026-08-23 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mf5zl6ATCw) ## Main Thesis The market is exhibiting late-cycle characteristics with rotation into energy, metals, and healthcare, while the AI bubble shows signs of weakness. The primary focus is on the US Treasury being pressured by the bond market despite recent intervention, with major upcoming catalysts being Nvidia's earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** second volume node Central banks, including China, Poland, and India, are accelerating their purchasing of gold, which shows demand around these levels. The chart is continuing to move up and is getting closer to a second volume node. Gold stocks have shown extra performance this week, closing higher than gold itself. ### 2. US Treasuries / Bonds (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** similar to 2007, where Treasury support was given before a contagion event The Treasury intervened to buy long-dated bonds, causing an initial rally in treasuries (yields down), but the move reversed by Friday. The intervention (upped from 2 to 4 billion in buybacks) is considered not enough money. Wall Street seems to be putting pressure on the US Treasury, and if the market pushes below the intervention level, big news and moves could be expected. The downward trend has not yet been changed. ### 3. US Financials (XLF) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH US financials are showing signs of momentum slowdown and have lost a smaller time frame trend line. They are still weak relative to the S&P 500. The sixth largest dark pool transaction ever was recorded just over a week ago, and financials have declined slightly since. ### 4. US Regional Banks (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** pressure on these lows Regional banks are putting pressure on their lows, contributing to the weakness seen in the broader financial sector. ### 5. Corporate Bonds (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** levels of support Government bonds are now competing with corporate bonds, with investors considering moving out of treasuries. Corporate bonds came into focus exactly on levels of support when the Treasury intervention was announced. ### 6. US Market (SPX implied) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** closest correlation is to 1978, also similar to 2007 The current market structure is being compared to 1978 and 2007. The closest correlation is 1978, which would imply a volatile period into October, potentially bottoming around the midterm elections before moving forward. ### 7. US Dollar Index (DXY) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** flag pattern (potential) The DXY is moving into an extreme and has been weak for the last 4 weeks. It could be forming a flag pattern if it closes towards new lows. The market is described as 'confused', with signs of an accumulation base but also too many bulls and negative price action. It is coiling, and a breakout could be explosive. It is currently trapped in a range. ### 8. Bitcoin (BTC) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout **Key Levels:** 77 78k node resistance Bitcoin saw an epic rally with very large ETF inflows, causing a 24% weekly gain. It moved quickly to a key volume/value node. It has now come straight into the 77-78k node, which is a resistance/supply area. While a trendline break has many excited, it still has to deal with this supply. This could be the beginning of something bigger after a long 8-10 month consolidation period. ### 9. Nvidia (NVDA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 190 support, 230 resistance Nvidia earnings are a major event this week. The options market is pricing in a +/- 6.2% move. The closest put support is mentioned. A move down to 190 would be 'pretty bad', while a move through 230 would turn markets into positive gamma. ### 10. ARKG (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A new number one largest transaction occurred in ARKG after a big move in Moderna. This could mean significant interest is present and the instrument may enter a consolidation phase or 'pit'. ### 11. Solar (TAN implied) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend (series of lower lows and lower highs) A large transaction (number four largest, number one sweep) came through. However, the chart is described as a 'freight train towards the downside' with a series of lower lows and lower highs. The large transaction could be a sign of demand at this zone of interest, but patience is required. ### 12. KWEB (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL KWEB has recently shown a correlation with Bitcoin. However, this week Bitcoin rallied significantly while KWEB 'didn't really do too much', suggesting the link may be breaking. ### 13. Uranium (daily, weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** downward trend line break Uranium broke its downward trend line, closed above it, and made a higher high. Things have started to improve slightly, but it's still early days and could easily fail. It has been doing nothing for the last year. ### 14. Utilities (XLU implied) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** important demand zone Unlike other energy-related narratives, utilities are not picking up. They have dropped and are coming back down to a very important demand zone. ### 15. US 10-Year Yield (TNX) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The 10-year yield jumped up and closed at a new high for the week. This is significant because the market, not the Fed, controls long-rate yields. ### 16. Oil (UK Oil) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Oil is described as 'dull and creeping up'. ### 17. Diesel Fuel / Crack Spread (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** all-time high closure The crack spread is 'on crack', moving up and closing at all-time highs. This is expected to put pressure on food prices and other inputs. ### 18. Nutrient (Fertilizers) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Fertilizer stocks like Nutrient are starting to move up, which could be a sign of further underlying inflationary pressures. ### 19. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Semiconductors were one of the worst-performing sectors this week. There is currently no leadership from the hardware/semiconductor markets, and they are 'still doing nothing'. ### 20. KOSPI (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders (potential) **Key Levels:** neckline The KOSPI chart has a pattern that looks like a potential inverse head and shoulders. However, it has not broken or closed above the neckline. It is currently consolidating. ### 21. Nike (NKE) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** $40 Used as an example of behavioral bias and why traders must expect the unexpected. Atkinson notes that in 2021, few would have predicted Nike would trade at $40 without a major economic crash, yet it happened. ### 22. Silver (XAG/USD) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Silver slammed into a resistance level and sold off. There is a 20/50 moving average cross, showing improvement. A lot of focus is coming into silver as a potential change in the market. ### 23. Copper (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Dr. Copper managed to regain its footing by the end of the week, closing as a doji. This is an important market to watch for signals about potential GDP weakness. ### 24. Ethereum (ETH) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** technical resistance Ethereum is sitting right around technical resistance and had a potentially great weekly closure. It has made a slightly higher high. ### 25. Nasdaq 100 (Qs) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** VWAP levels The Qs are described as being 'stuck in the middle of nowhere'. There are VWAP levels providing some technical support. The indices have been more boring than individual sectors recently. ### 26. US 500 (S&P 500) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 20 moving average daily The S&P 500 is also sitting around the VWAP and the 20 daily moving average, which are acting as a 'little support'. Two important volume nodes were mentioned, but the stated levels were mis-transcribed. The indices have been less active than specific sectors. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is showing signs of a late-cycle environment, evidenced by rotational shifts out of hardware/semiconductors and into sectors like precious metals, energy, and healthcare. If energy continues to outperform the S&P 500, it would be another sign of a later cycle, possibly topping, earnings-style market. There is an ongoing intermarket battle between government and corporate bonds. Historical analogs to 1978 (the closest correlation) and 2007 are being used to frame expectations for a volatile period ahead. There's also a discussion on the potential lack of faith in fiat currencies, highlighted by Ray Dalio's comments on moving from bonds to gold and Bitcoin. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Expect volatility to spike in late August through October, which is historically common in midterm election years. - The US Treasury's intervention in the bond market (2-4 billion in buybacks) is likely not enough, and Wall Street will probably continue to apply pressure. - Nvidia's earnings this week are a critical event, with the options market implying a significant move of +/- 6.2%. - The Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday is the other major story of the week, where markets will look for clues on Fed policy and central bank actions regarding treasuries. ## All Instruments Mentioned bonds, treasuries, Nvidia, energy, gold, financials, regional banks, corporate bonds, Bitcoin, US dollar, DXY, semiconductors, precious metals, agriculture, health care, ARKG, Moderna, Solar, KWEB, uranium, utilities, US 10-year, UK oil, diesel fuel, crack spread, nutrient, spy, Cospi, gold stocks, Nike, silver, copper, Ethereum, Qs, S&P, US 500, VIX --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-27 23:05:06*