# We Haven’t Seen This For 40 Years…
**Date:** 2026-08-25  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maNA8enBVgI)

## Main Thesis
Historically low crude oil inventories are creating inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns, while credit default swaps in the AI sector are rising, signaling debt market stress. In contrast, significant inflows and powerful moves into Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin suggest markets are waking up to these risks, creating a complex environment ahead of key events like Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Crude Oil Inventories (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** falling off a cliff
**Historical Comparison:** lowest that they've been in 40 to 50 years, since the last crisis of the 1970s

Atkinson highlights that crude inventories are falling off a cliff, reaching their lowest levels in 40 to 50 years, a situation not seen since the 1970s. This is causing a discrepancy between diesel prices and WTI crude, leading to inflation in certain areas and putting pressure on treasuries and the financial stability of the system.

### 2. Gold Stocks vs. Gold (Ratio) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accelerating
**Historical Comparison:** It's been over 10 years since gold stocks have really performed better than gold itself.

A weekly chart shows the ratio of gold stocks to gold is at a critical level. After being underpriced in 2025, the ratio is now back to a 10-year high and appears to be accelerating, suggesting gold stocks are starting to outperform gold for the first time in over a decade.

### 3. Gold (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from a demand zone/base
**Key Levels:** 4530 support, 4700 resistance

Significant inflows of $7 billion have been added to gold funds over the last 5 weeks. Large dark pool prints occurred on the 7th and 13th at a critical level. After closing above 4530, the next potential critical level is the 4,700 zone. Atkinson suggests it may need a 'pit' or pullback in time to consolidate after the strong run.

### 4. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** thrust, breakout from a 'pit' (pullback in time)
**Key Levels:** 82,000

Bitcoin experienced a 'ballistic' weekly thrust of 24.4%, a rare event that often happens at the beginning or end of trends. This was driven by five consecutive days of positive inflows totaling almost $2 billion. The price broke out of a 'pit' (pullback in time) and is now approaching the 82,000 level. Atkinson would prefer to see a consolidation period before the next move higher.

### 5. Government Treasuries / Bonds (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck within a level

Allocation to government treasuries is decreasing as investors move towards corporate and AI bonds. A figure named 'Besant' reportedly came out to support the long end of the bond market with a $2-4 billion purchase. The market is currently stuck between that support level and technical resistance.

### 6. AI Bonds / Credit Default Swaps (CDS) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spread blowouts, continuing to rise
**Historical Comparison:** Oracle's CDS has reached levels not seen since the GFC.

Credit default swaps on AI-related bonds are 'blowing out'. The CDS for Broadcom (AVGO) is accelerating, and Oracle's CDS has reached levels not seen since the GFC, hitting new highs in August. This indicates that debt is widening and risk is increasing in the sector.

### 7. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rotation market, holding at anchor VWAP
**Key Levels:** 7600 support, 7500 support
**Historical Comparison:** closest correlation structure at the moment is 1978 and 2007

The S&P 500 is described as a rotation market, with current correlations to 1978 and 2007. It is currently holding at an anchor VWAP. Key put levels are at 7,600 and 7,500, with 7,500 also being a heavily traded node. If the current level is lost, the market may test these lower supports.

### 8. Dollar Index (DXY) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped in a range

The US Dollar has been stuck in a range for over a year. Despite recent extreme positioning from fund managers, the market remains neutral and trapped at this stage.

### 9. Semiconductors (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** huge ramp up and a huge dump down

Money has been flowing out of semiconductors, and investors are confused after a huge rally followed by a sharp decline. The sector is struggling and is no longer the leader it once was.

### 10. Nvidia (NVDA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sitting slammed in the middle
**Key Levels:** 200 support, call resistance

Ahead of its earnings on Wednesday, the options market is pricing in a potential +/- 6.2% move. This could push the stock down to around the 200 level or up to the call resistance. The stock is currently positioned in the middle of this expected range, reflecting market uncertainty.

### 11. KWEB (Chinese Tech ETF) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** going down

KWEB is trending down, indicating a lack of improvement in Chinese stocks like Baba, which are under pressure.

### 12. Nike (NKE) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** absolute capitulation of stock price
**Historical Comparison:** Nike has come through these types of cycles before.

Presented as a learning lesson, Nike's stock has been in an 'absolute capitulation' despite being a fantastic company. The stock has seen huge, elevated volume activity recently.

### 13. KOSPI (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** kangaroo market

The South Korean index is in a 'kangaroo' (choppy, sideways) market as it tries to digest a prior move where many participants were levered out.

### 14. Japanese Yields (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows, accelerating

Japanese yields are making a series of higher highs and higher lows and have started to accelerate. This is expected to force another interest rate hike and put further pressure on US Treasuries.

### 15. Silver (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential 'pit' or pullback in time
**Key Levels:** 70

Atkinson mentions the level of $70 for silver. He suggests that, like gold, it may need to enter a 'pit' or a pullback in time to consolidate and 'do a little bit of breathing' after its recent run.

### 16. Ethereum (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** making a slightly higher high

Ethereum is making a slightly higher high, which is seen as a good initial sign for the crypto market.

### 17. Solana (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** trying to go for a higher high
**Key Levels:** 100

Solana is attempting to push for a higher high and is approaching the 'big psychological zone' of 100.

### 18. QQQ (The Q's) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 705 support, 700 support

Most of the puts are located around the 705 and 700 levels. This creates a potential options-based demand zone for the week leading into Nvidia's earnings.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a complex regime characterized by several key intermarket dynamics. Firstly, historically low crude inventories are driving up diesel prices, creating inflationary pressures that are impacting treasuries. Secondly, there is a clear rotation occurring, with money flowing out of growth sectors like semiconductors and into more defensive areas like financials, utilities, and staples. Thirdly, a significant divergence is noted between rising risk in the AI corporate debt market (seen via widening credit default swaps) and strong, safe-haven-like inflows into assets such as Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin. The current market structure is also being compared to volatile midterm election years like 1978 and 2007.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to the options market and large fund flows, as they are driving significant moves.
- Warning: Credit default swaps in the AI sector (Broadcom, Oracle) are rising to levels not seen since the GFC, indicating growing debt risk.
- Nvidia earnings on Wednesday are a major event, with the options market expecting a +/- 6.2% move.
- Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin may be due for a consolidation period or a 'pit' (pullback in time) after their very strong recent runs.
- For the S&P 500, if the current anchor VWAP level is lost, watch for a move down to support at 7,600 and then 7,500.
- The Jackson Hole symposium, particularly the speech from the new Fed chair on Friday, will be a key market event.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Crude Oil, WTI, Diesel, Treasuries, Gold, Gold Stocks, Silver, Bitcoin, AVGO, Oracle, S&P 500, Dollar Index, Semiconductors, Nvidia, Micron, Okta, KWEB, Baba, Nike, KOSPI, Japanese Yields, Financials, Regional Banks, JP Morgan, Energy Stocks, Ethereum, Solana, QQQ

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-27 23:03:08*