# This Doesn't Happen Often... **Date:** 2026-08-26 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8pyyW-yteg) ## Main Thesis The market is in a holding pattern, consolidating ahead of the highly anticipated Nvidia earnings, which is seen as a major catalyst. A unique 8-day down-streak in the Nasdaq historically suggests positive forward returns, but key sectors like semis and crypto are at resistance, while bonds are showing signs of awakening, creating a tense environment with potential for significant volatility. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Nasdaq (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 700 put level, 705 put level, 730 call resistance **Historical Comparison:** An 8-day streak of opening up and closing down has historically led to positive returns over the next one and three months. The Nasdaq has experienced a unique streak of 8 consecutive days where it opened higher but sold off by the close. While this seems negative, historical data for this rare occurrence suggests positive returns over the next 1-3 months. Currently, it is holding at put support levels of 700 and 705, with significant call resistance at 730, trapping the market ahead of Nvidia's earnings. ### 2. Copper (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** squeezing above dojis Referred to as 'Dr. Copper,' it is seen as an indicator of economic growth. It is up roughly 19% year-to-date and is currently squeezing higher, attempting to reach a new all-time high. A strong copper market is viewed as a positive sign for growth and a stabilized market, while a fall could signal concerns for AI markets. ### 3. Baba (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL There have been significant insider buys totaling around $15 million from the CEO and chairman, with reports of Jack Ma also buying. However, the stock price has not yet reacted to this news. The host notes that insiders operate on different time horizons. ### 4. Gold Stocks vs Gold (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Potential bottoming after a 10+ year drop The ratio of gold stocks to gold has been improving, potentially ending a 10+ year period of underperformance. Gold stocks are noted as being profitable, and the market is starting to pick up on this trend. ### 5. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 4650 resistance, 4700 resistance Gold is approaching a significant resistance area and volume node between 4650 and 4700. Fund flows into precious metals have recently turned positive, which is a supportive factor. ### 6. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** resistance Silver is currently right at a resistance level and is 'taking a breather,' which is an expected behavior at this technical point. ### 7. Palladium (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 1400 resistance Palladium is described as the 'slowest and laggiest' of the precious metals. It is still trading below its technical resistance level of 1400. ### 8. Bitcoin (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** shooting star candle **Key Levels:** 80,000 resistance, 82,000 resistance After 6-7 days of strong positive inflows, Bitcoin has pushed up to the key resistance zone of 80,000 to 82,000. It has formed a 'shooting star candle' at this resistance, but the host advises against shorting on a single candle, recommending patience to see if weakness is confirmed. ### 9. VIX (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Historical Comparison:** Seasonally, the VIX tends to 'go a little bit bonkers' in September and October of midterm election years. The host advises watching the VIX closely, as it is entering a seasonally volatile period (September/October) where it tends to rise, especially in midterm election years. ### 10. Nvidia (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** possible double bottom **Key Levels:** 190 support, 200 psychological level / put support, 230 resistance Nvidia's earnings are called the 'most important of 2026'. The options market is pricing a +/- 6% move. A move down would hit the 200 psychological level and put support, while a move up would hit call resistance. A break below the critical 190 support could create a 'waterfall effect', while a break above 230 could spark a new market rally. ### 11. Kospi (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders **Key Levels:** neckline The South Korean Kospi index is showing a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. It is currently consolidating at the neckline ahead of key semiconductor earnings from Nvidia and Micron. ### 12. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** consolidating The semiconductor sector is consolidating ahead of earnings. The host warns that when a sector is under such intense focus, Wall Street tends to 'chop it up,' making directional moves difficult. ### 13. JP2Y yields (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The Japanese 2-year yield continues to rise, which is seen as putting potential future pressure on the US Treasuries trade. ### 14. 10-year yield (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The US 10-year yield is currently 'not doing anything'. An alert is set for a potential breakout higher, as a rapid rise in yields would pressure stocks. ### 15. Treasuries (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** higher high (breaking downtrend structure) **Key Levels:** 20-plus year lows Treasuries have made a higher high, breaking the recent structure of lower lows and lower highs, which shows some support. The key pain point remains at the 20-plus year lows. ### 16. US dollar (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** trapped within the range The US dollar is range-bound and the bias is neutral. However, recent bullish positioning could lead to a squeeze higher if markets experience a risk-off event. ### 17. US oil (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 57 (daily 20 moving average) Oil has experienced a 'big fall off', providing a reprieve in the energy markets. The daily 20 moving average at 57 is a key level to watch for the market's reaction. ### 18. Solana (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** Resistance Solana is 'chilling' at a resistance level, similar to most of the crypto market. ### 19. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** holding onto the anchored VWAP **Key Levels:** 7400 node, 7500 put level / node, 7600 put level, 7800 plus The S&P 500 is holding its anchored VWAP ahead of Nvidia earnings. Key support nodes and put levels are at 7400 and 7500. A rally could target the 7800+ area, which would push the market back into positive gamma. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The analysis touches on several macro themes. There's a mention of a potential parallel to the 1970s stagflationary environment. Seasonal factors are highlighted, specifically the tendency for volatility (VIX) to rise in September and October of midterm election years. Intermarket analysis is key, with discussion of Wall Street's rotational nature (e.g., from leaders like Microsoft to laggards like Adobe/CRM), the re-emerging cross-correlation between metals and crypto, and the relationship between rising Japanese yields and pressure on US Treasuries. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Nvidia earnings are the most important catalyst for the market, with the options market pricing in a +/- 6% move. - A break below $190 in Nvidia could trigger a 'waterfall effect' sell-off. - Be prepared for increased volatility in September and October, as the VIX seasonally tends to rise during this period in midterm election years. - Traders should be patient with Bitcoin at its 80-82k resistance and 'react, don't predict,' waiting for confirmation of weakness rather than shorting a single 'shooting star' candle. - The key things to watch are Nvidia and Micron earnings, and developments in the Treasury market, especially ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium. ## All Instruments Mentioned Nasdaq, Nvidia, Baba, Copper, Gold Stocks, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, VIX, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta, Micron, Platinum, Palladium, Adobe, CRM, Microsoft, Kospi, Semiconductors, JP2Y yields, 10-year yield, Treasuries, JP Morgan, regional banks, US dollar, US oil, crack, Energy, spy, Q's, Solana, S&P, biotech, clean energy, solar, credit default swaps --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-08-27 23:02:05*