# Something Has Changed In This Market... **Date:** 2026-08-30 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKgZE8zCvwk) ## Main Thesis The market is entering a period of high volatility and uncertainty, driven by a more hawkish Fed stance from new Chair Walsh, which is causing yields to break out and reigniting inflation concerns. This is leading to significant sector rotation and potential traps for investors as we head into the statistically volatile months of September and October. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. South Korean Markets (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson highlights an "absolute volume collapse" in the South Korean markets, which were recently experiencing some of the biggest trade volumes. This is linked to the struggles in semiconductors and a drop-off in the use of exchange-traded funds and leverage, leading to a lackluster recovery and poor sentiment on the ground after massive liquidations. ### 2. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Potential Wyckoff distribution if key support is lost. **Key Levels:** 7650-ish support (anchored VWAP), 7500 support, 7640 support **Historical Comparison:** The closest match for the year's price action so far is 1978, a "horrible stagflationary period." The S&P 500 hit core resistance and sold off last week. Key put support is identified around the anchored VWAP at the "7650-ish area" and also at 7500. A break below 7640 could expose the 7500 level. If the market drops quickly from here, it could be interpreted as a Wyckoff distribution pattern, but Atkinson stresses this has not happened yet. ### 3. Gold (GLD) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 430 resistance Gold was "smashed" after hitting a cross-correlation resistance point along with other metals and Bitcoin. It slammed into a major options level at 430 for GLD and has come down to the first level of potential put support. Atkinson notes that gold doesn't like short-term rates going up and that its seasonality suggests potential for "whipsaw markets" in the coming months. ### 4. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Range-bound Semiconductors are struggling and were down for the week. They came up to a call resistance level on the options market and sold off, then hit put support. The sector is described as trapped in a range, with lots of daily volatility. The weakness is partly attributed to a collapse in leveraged trading volume from South Korea, which has killed sentiment. ### 5. Silver (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Pullback in time (PIT) Silver has pulled back on the daily chart but has not made a lower low. It is still in a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting the current move could be a "pullback in time" (PIT). It hit a liquidity level and rejected, which is described as typical Wall Street action. ### 6. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Pullback in time (PIT) **Key Levels:** 43 support (IBIT), 35 support (major, IBIT) Bitcoin hit resistance/supply along with gold and silver. After seeing large inflows, it experienced negative outflows on August 28th. A "pullback in time" (PIT) or a chop is not necessarily negative. The key is to watch the price structure. A sharp fall would expose weakness and trapped bulls. Options on IBIT show massive call resistance, with put support for the week at 43 and major support at 35. ### 7. Software (XSW) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Breakout Software was the story of the week, picking up strongly. The State Street Software Services ETF (XSW) is closing in on a new all-time high, having risen 54% off its support. Atkinson notes the inverse relationship where software picks up as semiconductors fall, with Wall Street being early to this rotation. The move is also fueled by AI announcements from companies like CRM ahead of the Anthropic IPO. ### 8. US 2-Year Yields (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Inverse head and shoulders The 2-year yield moved up in reaction to Fed Chair Walsh's hawkish comments at Jackson Hole. The chart shows a potential "inverse head and shoulders kind of thing in the direction of trend," which is now putting pressure on a new high for yields. ### 9. Japanese Yields (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Following the move in US yields, Japanese yields also picked up. The market is described as a "dull, increasing kind of market." ### 10. Treasuries (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Treasuries are described as "still stagnant" around a key level. Atkinson states there is clearly something going on in the bonds market that warrants attention. ### 11. Russell 2000 (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Underperformance The Russell 2000 has started to greatly underperform the S&P 500. This is attributed to its composition, which includes a high number of "debt zombies," biotech companies, and regional banks. ### 12. Biotech (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Biotech has been strong recently but fell this week. Atkinson notes that these businesses, which burn cash, will not like higher short-term yields. ### 13. Regional Banks (KRE) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson refers to the ticker as "KR1" (likely a transcription error for KRE). He states that regional banking has "still been declining in recent weeks." Continued weakness raises concerns about debt and credit default swaps. ### 14. Nvidia (NVDA) (2-hour) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Range-bound **Key Levels:** 200 support, 230 resistance On the 2-hour chart, Nvidia rallied to a resistance level at 230, where there are tons of calls, and then sold off. The stock is now described as being trapped between that 230 resistance and support around 200, which is the expected options range. ### 15. UK Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Range-bound UK Oil is described as "still trapped." ### 16. US Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Range-bound Very similar to UK Oil, US Oil is "just kind of sitting in the middle." ### 17. Crack Spread (Diesel) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The crack spread saw a decent pullback and then recovered. Atkinson notes that diesel is still continuing to rally, which will lead to higher transportation and food costs, feeding into inflation. ### 18. Energy Stocks (XLE) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Bounce **Key Levels:** daily 20 moving average support Energy stocks managed to pick up, bouncing off the daily 20 moving average. ### 19. Copper (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Long-leg doji The chart is showing multiple long-leg doji candles, which signifies indecision. However, it has not turned bearish yet and is still in a series of higher highs and higher lows. As "Dr. Copper," this suggests there is still some form of growth in the world. ### 20. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Range-bound **Key Levels:** 700 support, 705 support, 730 resistance The Qs are trapped within ranges. Put support from last week was at the 700s, with a key level around 700-705. Call resistance for the upcoming week is at 730, which is the net expiration signal. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is operating in a volatile midterm election year regime, which historically features 'kangaroo style' price action. The current environment is being heavily influenced by a new, more hawkish Fed chair, creating conditions for rising yields and renewed inflation fears. A key historical analog mentioned is 1978, a stagflationary period, which is the closest match to the S&P 500's price action this year. Intermarket analysis is critical, with notable rotations like money flowing out of semiconductors and into software, and the underperformance of the Russell 2000 (regional banks, high-debt companies) highlighting credit and debt concerns. ## Key Calls & Predictions - We are about to potentially see yields break out and inflation concerns come back into focus. - Expect the next two months (September/October) to be extremely volatile. - There is a higher chance of a macro shock than in recent years due to complete complacency in the market. - Pay close attention to this week's Non-Farm Payrolls data, as every data point is now critical. - Be aware of Wall Street's tendency to trap retail traders by moving against the obvious trade first to grab liquidity. - Stock traders should consult the options market to understand the potential volatility and expected move for a stock, especially around earnings. ## All Instruments Mentioned South Korean markets, Semiconductors, Nvidia, Bonds, Yields, S&P 500, VIX, Gold, GLD, Silver, Bitcoin, Software, XSW, CRM, Anthropic, US 2-Year Yields, Japanese Yields, Treasuries, Russell 2000, Biotech, Regional Banks, UK Oil, US Oil, Crack Spread, Energy Stocks, Copper, Nasdaq 100, QQQ, IBIT --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-04 00:38:00*