# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: SP500 Shrugs off High Oil Prices, Gold Silver & Bitcoin Analysis **Date:** 2026-08-31 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoQsLyvZGFI) ## Main Thesis The broad market indices are in a sideways, rangebound state, masking significant sector rotation underneath, with software outperforming weakening semiconductors. Markets are currently ignoring risks like rising oil prices and consumer strain, but are poised for a volatile period ahead. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. US Oil (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Atkinson notes that US Oil is up 3.87% and that the market has recovered despite the rise, showing resilience. He highlights the importance of also watching UK Oil and the diesel price, which is also up and creating a 'wild differential' from the oil price. ### 2. Diesel (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He points out that a diesel ETF is up 2.18%, and this is a key part of the oil story. The rising diesel price is a potential problem, especially for industries like airlines, and he is surprised it's not having a greater impact on yields. ### 3. Energy Sector (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** bounce off 20 moving average The energy sector is up 1.53%, making it one of the biggest sectors of the day. He notes that energy stocks came down to and bounced off the 20 moving average last week, which he considers a dynamic support level in a trend. ### 4. Semiconductors Sector (daily, weekly, monthly, 3-month) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Semiconductors are up only 0.38%. While longer timeframes (monthly, weekly) still show an uptrend holding the key weekly 20 moving average, the daily chart looks 'a little bit more flaky'. He expresses concern about their underperformance relative to the broader market and software. ### 5. KOSPI Futures (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Atkinson shows the 'Cosby futures' (a likely transcription error for KOSPI futures) and notes they look 'very, very similar' to the semiconductor chart. He mentions that South Korean retail leverage into single stocks has collapsed, reducing a source of flow. ### 6. Semiconductors vs SPY Ratio (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** series of lower highs and lower lows **Historical Comparison:** Compared to the 'AI bubble' calls in 2024. Atkinson calls this ratio the 'backbone' of the market run, representing AI capex spend. The chart is showing a series of lower highs and lower lows and is trading underneath the weekly 20 moving average. He sees this as a disturbing sign of weakness and underperformance in the market's key leadership group. ### 7. Oracle (ORCL) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** liquidity grab / trap level He describes Oracle as a 'freight train down,' having lost 52%. However, he notes some potential bottoming signs: a bounce off the anchored VWAP from the lows, a liquidity grab below prior lows (a 'trap level'), and a structural pickup. Despite these technical signs, he states the stock still has 'a whole bunch of bonds problems'. ### 8. Software vs Semiconductors Ratio (IGV/SMH) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH This ratio, showing software's performance relative to semiconductors, has been 'extremely bad for quite some time' but has recently improved. He notes this is a significant development in the sector rotation theme. ### 9. Software Services (XSW) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** new all-time high **Historical Comparison:** Compares to 2018 when software outperformance vs semis occurred during a sideways market. The software services ETF (XSW) is making a new all-time high. He notes that an improvement in software versus a weakness in semiconductors can be a signal that the broader market is starting to soften underneath. ### 10. US 2-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The 2-year yield is noted as being 'close to resistance highs'. He is surprised it is not 'exploding up' given the 4% rise in oil prices. ### 11. US 10-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The 10-year yield is also 'close to resistance highs'. At the very end of the stream, he notes that it just made a new high, which is a significant development to watch. ### 12. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback to support Gold fell last week not because of inflation narratives, but because it hit a technical resistance. It has now pulled back to a key support area, which he defines as a demand/accumulation zone, the 20 moving average, and the anchored VWAP. He sees this as a very important point for gold's next move. ### 13. Silver (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback to support Silver fell along with gold and bitcoin, and is correlating with them. It has pulled back to the daily 20 moving average, a key support level. ### 14. Bitcoin (daily, weekly, monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback in time (pit) **Key Levels:** 64k support Bitcoin fell with gold and silver after hitting resistance. Atkinson suggests a shallow pullback ('pullback in time') is healthy to reset indicators. He warns that a deep pullback, for instance back to 64k, would be a sign of weakness and could mean the initial rally was a 'fake thrust'. ### 15. Palladium (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Palladium did not drop as much as gold and silver because it was already beaten down and had not reached its key resistance/supply zone. ### 16. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** rangebound The S&P 500 is in a 'kangaroo style market,' trapped in a range. It bounced from support defined by the 20 moving average and the anchored VWAP, and then hit call resistance. Atkinson mentions specific levels (7500/7650 put support, 7900 call resistance), but these appear to be mis-transcribed or for a different index like the Nasdaq, so they are omitted from key levels. ### 17. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 700 support Atkinson mentions that a drop in the S&P could mean a move to 700 on the QQQ. He is not excited about the Nasdaq chart, as it is trading at its 'most traded area' (equilibrium) and looks weak on smaller timeframes. ### 18. Tesla (TSLA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 340 put He describes Tesla as a 'shell of its former self' and 'pretty boring' from a trading perspective. He notes there is 'nothing going on' in the options market, with the net expiration put at 340. ### 19. Solar ETF (TAN) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs A massive dark pool sweep (large transaction) occurred in the solar ETF. However, the chart has not reacted yet; it has not made a higher high and remains in a downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. He is waiting for the price action to confirm the signal. ### 20. Airlines (UAL, AAL, JETS) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson is watching the airlines for signs of consumer health and sees weakness. He notes both United Airlines (UAL) and American Airlines (AAL) look weak. He attributes this to rising diesel prices and potential weakness in the consumer, which is a concerning signal for the economy. ### 21. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Wyckoff distribution He calls the stock's action last week a 'horror show' that looks like a 'full-on Wyckoff distribution'. The stock slammed straight back down into a demand area. ### 22. Regional Banks (KRE) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He is watching the regional banks (KRE) for any signs of weakness in the financial system. ### 23. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 14 support The VIX is 'ridiculously low' and sitting at a multi-year low base around 14. He cites a report suggesting the macro climate is poised for a volatile period, and the low VIX indicates the market is not worried, making it vulnerable to a shock. ### 24. Utilities Sector (XLU) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH He states that utilities 'look really bad' and that the chart does not excite him at all, calling it 'sick' and 'gross'. ### 25. High Yield Junk Bonds (HYG) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL High yield junk bonds are not dropping, indicating the credit market is 'chill' and does not care about the various macro risks. He states that until credit markets like this start to show fear, the broader market likely won't care either. ### 26. Costco (COST) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** rangebound **Key Levels:** 1000 resistance, 850 support Costco is described as 'super sideways' and 'rangebound'. He identifies the trading range as being between 850 on the low end and 1000 on the high end. ### 27. Coinbase (COIN) (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Pattern:** thrust rally Coinbase's performance is tied to Bitcoin. He notes a positive sign: the stock found support and had a 'thrust rally' that went above a prior level. However, he cautions that it is still 'early days'. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a 'kangaroo style' or 'sector rotational' regime, where the main indices are moving sideways while different sectors perform well at different times (e.g., software is now outperforming semiconductors). There is a significant 'K-shaped economy' dynamic, where older demographics with assets are doing well, while younger demographics are squeezed by housing and education costs. The market is currently ignoring known risks (high oil, student loans, delinquencies), and this will likely continue until credit markets (like high-yield bonds) show signs of stress. The NAIM index reading of 102 suggests funds are heavily invested, which can be a sign of complacency. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The market is in a sideways, sector-rotational phase; look under the hood of the main indices for opportunities. - The relative weakness in semiconductors vs. software is a key development and a potential warning sign for the market's underlying strength. - Watch credit markets (High Yield Bonds) for the first sign of trouble; until they show fear, the equity market is likely to remain resilient to macro risks. - Expect the unexpected over the next two months, as the VIX is very low and the market seems poised for a volatile period. - His general thesis for the year remains a dump in Q3 leading into the election. ## All Instruments Mentioned US Oil, UK Oil, Diesel, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Energy Sector, Semiconductors Sector, KOSPI Futures, SPY, Oracle (ORCL), Software Sector (IGV), Software Services (XSW), US 2-Year Yield, US 10-Year Yield, Palladium, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Tesla (TSLA), Solar ETF (TAN), Reddit (RDDT), Airlines (UAL, AAL, JETS), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Regional Banks (KRE), Chinese Stocks, VIX, Tech Sector (XLK), Financials Sector (XLF), Utilities Sector (XLU), High Yield Junk Bonds (HYG), Corporate Bonds, Costco (COST), Coinbase (COIN), Australian 1-Year Rate --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-04 00:37:12*