# What Is Wall Street Up Too...
**Date:** 2026-09-09  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBDt0JgsCBg)

## Main Thesis
While major indices are range-bound and showing internal weakness, the real story is a 'market within markets' where rising energy prices and bond yields signal inflationary pressure and stress, while central banks buy gold and specific sectors like energy and agriculture show strength.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Potential breakdown of a long-standing trend line, potential lower high forming.

The NYSE daily chart is under pressure at a long-standing trend line from this year, with a potential lower high forming. This is significant as market breadth is weakening, with more stocks declining than increasing and less than 50% of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average, which is a sign of weakness heading into a seasonally poor period.

### 2. Gold (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Consolidating near support after a 'blowoff top' in January.
**Historical Comparison:** The speaker has been discussing the central bank buying theme since 2022.

Central banks, particularly China, are purchasing gold at a record pace, which is a positive sign. China bought over 20 tons in August, matching its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. After a 'blowoff top' in January, gold is now sitting around support levels and could be starting to come back.

### 3. Diesel / Crack Spreads (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Accelerating uptrend.

Diesel prices are increasing and accelerating, which is a major inflationary concern as it impacts food and staple goods. The price action signaled this move back in June and July, and the continued rise increases the probability of an interest rate hike.

### 4. US 10-Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breaking out and continuing to go up.

The US 10-year yield is breaking out and moving higher, along with the 20-year and 30-year yields. This is putting significant pressure on debts and 'zombie businesses'.

### 5. Tech Credit Default Swaps (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Rising trend.

Credit default swaps for the tech sector are rising again, indicating significant pressure and risk in the market. This is contrasted by the financial sector's CDS, which are not showing the same level of concern, raising the question of which market is correct.

### 6. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Can be interpreted as a bullish flag or a small time frame decline.
**Historical Comparison:** 1978 is the most closely correlated year to 2026.

The S&P 500 can be viewed as either a bullish flag pattern or a minor decline. The index is currently range-bound, described as 'watching paint dry'. The most similar historical analog for the current year is 1978.

### 7. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** In a 'pit' (pullback in time) after a squeeze into resistance.
**Key Levels:** 82k level resistance

After a squeeze pushed Bitcoin up to resistance around the 82k level, it has entered a consolidation phase, or a 'pullback in time'. This sideways action is seen as a healthy rest to reset indicators. A positive sign is the massive ETF inflows, while a negative is the failure to close above resistance.

### 8. Carvana (CVNA) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Potential head and shoulders top.
**Key Levels:** at a pretty interesting support area

A chart that 'no one's talking about'. On the monthly timeframe, Carvana is forming a potential head and shoulders top. While the current trend is still bullish, this is a key chart to watch for weakness as it could be linked to stress in the bond market and the broader loan system.

### 9. XLF (Financials ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Higher highs, higher lows.

Financials have been 'lackluster' despite rising interest rates. While the trend is still technically higher highs and higher lows, the speaker questions if the sector is beginning to weaken.

### 10. Australian 10-Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Making new highs.

Australian bond yields are making new highs, putting pressure on the country's financial and housing markets, which is particularly impactful due to the prevalence of variable-rate loans.

### 11. Japanese 10-Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Uptrend described as 'absolutely flying'.

Japanese yields are 'absolutely flying', participating in the global trend of rising bond yields.

### 12. High Yield Junk Bonds (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Dropping, but with no real fear yet.

High yield junk bonds are dropping. However, looking at the ICE BofA high yield index, there is 'no real fear' and it seems like the 'calm before the storm', despite a small spike in the last couple of days.

### 13. Oil (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Strong uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
**Historical Comparison:** Goes against the traditional seasonal tendency for oil to drop into an election.

Oil is 'absolutely going bonkers' with big volumes in a clear uptrend. This is putting significant pressure on the economy and defies the typical seasonal weakness for oil heading into an election.

### 14. XLE (Energy ETF) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Uptrend.

The energy sector ETF has 'continued to prove' the bullish thesis that has been discussed for months.

### 15. Chevron (CVX) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breakout to resistance.
**Key Levels:** closed above the August area, at the resistance

Chevron closed above its August high and is now trading at resistance, confirming the strength in the oil sector.

### 16. KOSPI (South Korean Market) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Testing resistance.
**Key Levels:** back at resistance

The South Korean market is back at a key resistance level ahead of this week's US inflation data.

### 17. China markets (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** In a 'pit' (pullback in time).

Chinese markets are in a consolidation phase ('just chilling'), waiting for more news or a catalyst.

### 18. MOO (Agriculture ETF) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breaking up.

The agriculture ETF (MOO) is breaking out, which is causing moves in related stocks and signals future cost pressures on food.

### 19. Gold stocks vs Gold (ratio) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** In a multi-decade holding pattern, currently showing strength.

The ratio of gold stocks to gold is showing strength, with miners outperforming the metal. This is happening despite rising diesel prices, which would be expected to increase mining costs.

### 20. Silver (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Potential inverse head and shoulders.

Silver is described as having a cleaner chart than gold, with a potential bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern forming at key support and resistance levels.

### 21. Copper (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Breakout, rejection from resistance, but new all-time high close.
**Key Levels:** new all-time high closure point

Copper skyrocketed, was rejected from resistance, but still managed a new all-time high close. As 'Dr. Copper', this signals continued demand and inflation, raising concerns about future higher rates.

### 22. Nasdaq 100 (The Q's) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Stuck in the middle.

Similar to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 is stuck in a range and described as boring. It is caught between key options levels.

### 23. IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** In a 'pit' (consolidation).

The options market for IBIT shows the price is stuck between resistance and put support, currently consolidating in a 'pit'.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is described as a 'late cycle style market' and a 'market within markets'. While the main indices are moving sideways, there is significant rotation underneath the surface. Strength has been seen in sectors like biotech, healthcare, energy, metals, and semiconductors. Key intermarket signals include rising bond yields globally (US, Australia, Japan) pressuring debt, rising oil/diesel prices fueling inflation, and Dr. Copper confirming demand. There's a divergence between rising tech credit risk (CDS) and calm financial credit risk.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch the New York Stock Exchange daily chart for a potential breakdown of its year-long trend line, which would signal broad market weakness.
- Keep an eye on the monthly chart of Carvana (CVNA) for a potential head and shoulders top, which could be a leading indicator of weakness related to the bond market.
- The real opportunity is not in the sideways indices but in sector rotation, with energy (XLE) and agriculture (MOO) showing bullish breakouts.
- Pay close attention to PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday, as these data points will likely drive expectations for interest rates and impact the bond market significantly.
- Rising tech credit default swaps are a warning sign of pressure in that sector, even as financial CDS remain calm.

## All Instruments Mentioned
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), S&P 500, Gold, Diesel, Bonds, US 10-Year Yield, US 20-Year Yield, US 30-Year Yield, Tech Credit Default Swaps, Bitcoin, Utilities, Semiconductors, Solar, Carvana (CVNA), XLF (Financials ETF), Australian 10-Year Yield, Japanese 10-Year Yield, High Yield Junk Bonds, Crack Spreads, Oil, XLE (Energy ETF), Chevron (CVX), SanDisk, KOSPI, China markets, MOO (Agriculture ETF), Nutrien, Gold stocks vs Gold (ratio), Silver, Copper, The Q's (Nasdaq 100), IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-09 20:01:14*