# We Have Never Seen This Before...
**Date:** 2026-09-10  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP0rGQrNIig)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing significant underlying weakness and divergence, with record-low oil refining capacity fueling inflation fears and rising yields, while market breadth deteriorates as evidenced by the equal-weighted index breaking its trendline.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. RSP (Equal Weighted Market) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** channel / trend line violation

The daily chart of the equal-weighted market shows it has just violated a channel or trend line that has been intact for most of 2026. This, combined with a declining advance-decline line, indicates that more stocks are going down than up and that the broader market is now in decline.

### 2. Copper (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** $14,858 a ton, $6.89ish

Copper is potentially having a massive weekly close above a five-week consolidation of dojis. The host notes that supply is constrained while demand from AI capex, EVs, and renewables is creating feedback loops. He mentions copper futures are sitting at $6.89ish and that copper reached $14,858 a ton in the last 3 months.

### 3. Gold (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** 4450 resistance, 4500 resistance, 4,300 support

Central banks, particularly Poland and China, are continuously accumulating gold, which could be a sign of a move to a new standard or a loss of faith in bonds. While not moving heavily, the price has improved. It is holding above 4,300 support but has not yet broken the 'minuscule resistances' at 4450 or 4500.

### 4. Credit Default Swaps (Tech vs Banks) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence

Credit default swaps are starting to rise, and there is a huge divergence between tech and banks. This indicates rising risk, particularly in the tech sector, which is a key story underneath the surface.

### 5. NASDAQ (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 1989 path

An analog chart comparing the current NASDAQ to its 1989 path suggests the market could still rally before slowing down and entering a 'kangaroo' (ranging) market for the rest of the year. This outcome is not as negative as some might expect.

### 6. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Historical Comparison:** 1978 narrative

The host references the 1978 analog for the S&P 500, which the market has been following. The chart has recently started to drop, mirroring the analog and raising the question of whether this bearish path will continue.

### 7. Bitcoin (IBIT Options) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pullback in time (pit)

Bitcoin has fallen from a 'cold wall' of options resistance and is now in what is called a 'pullback in time' or 'pit'. If Bitcoin can take out a low and then rally back through, it would be a strong move that could squeeze the street, especially as volumes have been improving.

### 8. Carvana (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders

The host is watching Carvana not just for its head and shoulders pattern, but as a potential leading indicator for problems in the loans market, noting that price action often leads the news.

### 9. Financials (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

The financials market has dropped off recently.

### 10. Regional Banks (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** topping pattern

Regional banks are showing signs of topping and potentially turning over. The host warns that weakness in banks and debt is when you start to see real concerns in the overall market.

### 11. New York Stock Exchange (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** trend line break from a lower high

The NYSE chart shows a closure below a trend line, which comes off a lower high. This is described as a serious concern and a sign of weakness in market breadth that is not visible when just looking at the S&P 500.

### 12. S&P 500 (US 500) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidating, potential flag

The S&P 500 is consolidating and has a structure of 'high, low, higher, high, lower, low,' suggesting a potential turn to the downside. It could be a flag pattern. The host mentions options levels at 7500, 7600, and 7800, but these numbers are ambiguous as transcribed.

### 13. Percent of stocks above 50-day average (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining
**Key Levels:** 41%

This breadth indicator is sitting at 41% and is still declining. It is not yet showing signs of recovery or hitting the 'fear areas' at the lows of its oscillation, which is a concerning storyline leading into CPI.

### 14. S&P 500 vs RSP (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** Since 2022, big companies have led the equal weight.

This ratio chart shows the S&P 500 outperforming the equal-weight index, a trend that has been in place since 2022. It highlights the weakness in breadth and loss of leadership as semiconductors are now in a ranging market.

### 15. Australian 1-year yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 4.8%

The Australian 1-year yield is at 4.8% and is about to break to a new high, which is part of a global trend of rising yields.

### 16. US 10-year yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout

US 10-year yields are closing above new highs, contributing to the global theme of bond yields breaking out.

### 17. Great Britain 2-year yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout

The UK 2-year yield is another example of a global bond that is either at resistance or closing above it. A weekly close at these breakout levels could lead to fear.

### 18. High Yield Junk Bonds (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** resistance that we reached in 2025

Junk bonds have come back up to a resistance level from 2025. While they look bad on the surface, the host notes that the significant risk seems concentrated in credit default swaps on tech and AI businesses.

### 19. BofA High Yield Option Spread (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** Lows similar to early 2007 and 1997-98

This spread is off its historical lows, which have only been seen about four times in history, including periods like early 2007 and 1997-98 that preceded major busts. This indicates a high level of complacency in the bond market.

### 20. Crack Spread (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** huge volume breakout

The crack spread is moving wildly higher, up 2.33% on 'monster volume' with another 0.56% gain in after-hours trading. This is a major inflationary story that the market is now fully aware of.

### 21. XLE (Energy Sector) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows

The energy sector continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, confirming it has been the right market selection over the last month.

### 22. Nvidia (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

Although Nvidia had a great weekly close at a new high, its momentum has slowed down, and it's still just in a series of higher highs and higher lows.

### 23. China (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck in a pit

The China market is showing no movement and is stuck in a 'pit'. The host is waiting to see if it will create a trap and then reverse, advising patience.

### 24. Gold Stocks vs Gold (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

The ratio of gold stocks versus gold overall continues to show improvement.

### 25. Silver (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential inverse head and shoulders

Silver has outperformed gold in the last 24 hours and is showing a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. A closure above the neckline could signal that metals across the world are showing real strength.

### 26. XME (Metals & Mining Sector) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** consolidating

The metals and mining sector has been improving in recent weeks and is now consolidating. The host notes that raw metals like iron ore have also been improving.

### 27. Q's (Nasdaq 100) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped

The Q's haven't done much and are trapped within an options range. The host mentions puts at 700 and calls at 730, but these levels are ambiguous as transcribed.

### 28. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped

Bitcoin's price action is trapped. While inflows are up slightly, the host is watching how the price reacts in the coming days, viewing the trapped price as an opportunity to see Wall Street's hand.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'sector rotation' regime since June, favoring stock and sector pickers over index investors. There is a significant macro theme of record-low oil refining capacity causing a surge in diesel prices (crack spreads), which is feeding into inflation fears ahead of PPI/CPI data. Globally, bond yields are breaking out (US, UK, Australia), putting pressure on risk assets. Central banks (China, Poland) are accumulating gold, suggesting a potential loss of faith in bonds and a move toward a 'new norm'. A unique dynamic is occurring where AI/private equity is competing with government treasuries for capital, something not seen in modern history.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The equal-weighted market (RSP) breaking its 2026 trendline is a serious sign of underlying market weakness.
- Expect high volatility around the upcoming PPI and especially the CPI on Friday, as markets may use the inflation data as an 'excuse' to move.
- A weekly close for global bond yields at their current breakout levels could trigger significant fear in the markets.
- Watch financials and regional banks closely, as they are showing signs of topping out, and their decline could signal real trouble for the broader market.
- This is a stock picker's and sector picker's market; opportunities are present in sectors like energy (XLE) and metals (Copper, Gold, Silver, XME).
- Semiconductors have lost leadership and are now in a 'kangaroo' (ranging) market.

## All Instruments Mentioned
New York Stock Exchange, Equal weighted market, Diesel, Crack Spread, Oil, Copper, Treasury bonds, Gold, Credit Default Swaps, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Bitcoin, Semiconductors, Carvana, Financials, Regional Banks, Australian 1-year yield, US 10-year yield, Great Britain 2-year yield, High Yield Junk Bonds, BofA High Yield Option Spread, Chevron, XLE, SanDisk, Cosby, Nvidia, Meta, China, Gold Stocks vs Gold, Silver, XME, Q's, Iron Ore

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-10 20:01:16*