# What If WALL STREET Is WRONG?
**Date:** 2026-09-13  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpDfPGe_NgY)

## Main Thesis
The market is at a critical juncture, characterized by significant disconnects between soaring tech credit risk and general market complacency, and between inflationary commodity signals and official data. While major indices are holding up, underlying breadth is weakening and the bond market is pressuring key levels, raising the question of whether the Fed or Treasury will be forced to intervene first.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. IY (iShares US Energy ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Atkinson notes a large dark pool transaction on IY, the iShares US Energy ETF. He states it was the ninth largest transaction and, more importantly, a sweep, meaning it happened very quickly. He shows a chart with other recent large transactions, some of which led to rallies and some to sideways movement, noting this one is the biggest in quite some time on this ETF.

### 2. DDM (ProShares Ultra Dow30) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Atkinson points out a couple of big dark pool transactions on DDM, a Dow proxy. He highlights that one was the second largest ever recorded on this particular ETF. Since those transactions, the market has rallied, but he questions if it's enough to confirm a market base is in.

### 3. RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** trend line break

The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) weakened last week, representing the broad market. It broke underneath its upward trend line and is showing significant advanced decline line weakness. Atkinson suggests that if the market can't rally quickly, volatility could be coming.

### 4. Carvana (CVNA) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential head and shoulders

Atkinson brings up Carvana as an interesting proxy for what's happening with auto delinquencies in the US. He notes that the chart looks like it could be forming a head and shoulders pattern, which, if it plays out, could be a sign of problems. He states it's an interesting observation, as price action often shows up before it appears in the press.

### 5. New York Composite Index (NYA) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** trend line break

This broad market index fell underneath the trend line that has defined the 2026 rally. Atkinson points to this as a sign of breadth weakness, with more companies declining than advancing. This weakness could lead to problems if leadership from semiconductors or Magnificent 7 stocks doesn't emerge soon.

### 6. S&P 500 Breadth (Stocks > 50-day MA) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Atkinson highlights that less than 40% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 50-day moving average. He considers this 'not great' and a sign of significant rotation happening underneath the surface, even while the main index hasn't fallen much. However, he notes that when these levels get very low, it's often where position-based investors start to get excited.

### 7. Treasuries (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** series of lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** Bessant level

Atkinson states that Wall Street is pressing treasuries to see the pain point of the US, pushing them down to what he calls the 'Bessant level'. The chart is in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. He sees this as a major story, questioning who will blink first—the Fed or the Treasury—and how much lower prices can go before some form of intervention occurs.

### 8. Great British Yields (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

UK yields are 'flying through', similar to yields across the world. This indicates pressure on bond prices globally.

### 9. Junk Bonds (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Despite rising yields, Atkinson notes that junk bonds are still going up once interest rates are stripped out. This suggests there isn't much 'freak out' or risk being priced into the market, indicating complacency.

### 10. BofA High Yield Spread (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** similar to pre-tariffs, 2007 before the GFC, and 1998

This chart shows extreme complacency in the bond market. Atkinson notes that the last times the spread was this low were before major market events like the GFC in 2007 and in 1998. He emphasizes that it's rare to see such low risk perception in bonds.

### 11. US 10-Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** 2023 high

The US 10-year yield is 'absolutely flying up' and has almost hit a key level not seen since 2023. Atkinson warns that if the yield breaks through this level, the market will be in the 'fear of the unknown'.

### 12. Australian 10-Year Yield (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** 5%

Atkinson points out 'problems here in the land of the kangaroos,' with the Australian 10-year yield now over 5%. He states this will put a lot of pressure on the country's expensive property market.

### 13. Crack Spread (Diesel) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows

The price of diesel continues to go up in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Atkinson notes that this story is not going away, but since it is now widely covered in the press, it might be getting 'up there' in price, following the saying 'if it's in the press, it's in the price'.

### 14. SanDisk (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Atkinson mentions watching SanDisk as a leader in the semiconductor space. He notes that it sold off a little bit, indicating some potential weakness in the sector.

### 15. Nvidia (NVDA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** series of higher highs, higher lows

As another market leader, Nvidia is still holding a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. However, Atkinson notes that it 'didn't have a great week', suggesting a need to watch it closely.

### 16. Magnificent 7 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** resistance

The Magnificent 7 stocks are at a critical resistance level. Atkinson states that if they start leading again, they can push the indices higher, but if they turn down from these highs, it could be a problem for the market.

### 17. Chinese Stock Market (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** hidden demand

The Chinese stock market is 'not so good', having fallen off and broken underneath a 'hidden demand' level. While it could find support lower, he views this as a very important and negative development, coinciding with regulators intervening in the economy.

### 18. Gold Stocks vs Gold (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 10-year base

The ratio of gold stocks to gold continues to hover around the same level, which he refers to as a '10-year base'.

### 19. Gold (small time frame)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** lower highs

Gold did not make a new lower low, which is good news for bulls. However, on a small time frame, it is making lower highs and has not yet broken out, remaining in a consolidation phase.

### 20. Silver (4 hour, 2 hour, 1 hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential inverse head and shoulders, potential trap
**Key Levels:** demand level

Silver looked like it was forming a mini inverse head and shoulders pattern but then came down to pressure a key demand level again. It rallied off that level, but Atkinson questions if the initial pattern was a trap designed to take out stop losses.

### 21. Copper (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rejection of higher high
**Key Levels:** dogey level

Copper came up to make a higher high but then 'looked horrible by the end of the week,' rejecting downwards to what he calls the 'dogey level'. While the overall trend of higher highs and higher lows is not yet broken, the rejection is a sign of weakness.

### 22. US 500 (S&P 500) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** flag (bull case) vs lower highs (bear case)
**Key Levels:** 7500 support, 7750 resistance, 7900 net expiration, 8000 target, 8100 target

The S&P 500 is at a decision point. Bulls see a potential flag pattern that could break up towards targets of 8000-8100. Bears see a higher high followed by lower highs, indicating weakness. Options market shows key levels at 7500, 7750, and a net expiration for the week at 7900. The market is not yet in positive gamma.

### 23. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 700 support, 720 resistance, 730 resistance

The options market and technical levels for the Nasdaq 100 align. There is call resistance at 720, with a bigger level at 730. The market is currently 'in the middle of nowhere,' not having made a major decision to go higher or lower yet.

### 24. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pit

Bitcoin is holding relatively well inside what Atkinson calls a 'critical pit'. Rallies are currently being met with selling demand. He sees this period of indecision as a time for patience, waiting to see what the market does next without needing to have a strong opinion yet.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
There are several significant disconnects in the market. A major one is in credit default swaps, where tech risk is 'blowing up' while the rest of the market shows no concern, a divergence not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. Similarly, high-yield bond spreads are at levels of extreme complacency comparable to 2007 and 1998, suggesting no risk is being priced in. Another disconnect exists between commodity producers, whose strength signals inflation (e.g., oil, copper), and the market's broader inflation expectations, which remain subdued. This creates a complex environment where surface-level calm in equities belies growing stress in the bond market and weakening internal breadth.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The coordinated warnings from major AI founders (Musk, Altman, Amodei) could have dramatic implications for AI capex spending, future IPOs, and regulation.
- JP Morgan is now forecasting two Fed rate hikes for the remainder of 2026, in September and December, a view the market is beginning to price in.
- The bond market is a key story to watch, as treasuries are being pushed to a critical pain point, raising the question of whether the Fed or the Treasury will be forced to intervene.
- Market breadth is weakening significantly, with less than 40% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average, indicating underlying weakness despite the headline index levels.
- The upcoming FOMC statement and press conference are the key events for the week, with the market expecting a potential rate hike announcement.

## All Instruments Mentioned
IY (iShares US Energy ETF), DDM, RSP, Carvana, New York Composite Index, Treasuries, Great British Yields, Junk Bonds, BofA High Yield Spread, US 10-Year Yield, Australian 10-Year Yield, Crack Spread, SanDisk, Nvidia, Magnificent 7, Chinese Stock Market, Gold Stocks, Gold, Silver, Copper, US 500, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin, US dollar yen

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-13 20:01:03*