# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Stocks Fall, Inflation Concerns Heat Up Sp500, Nasdaq, GOLD, OIL **Date:** 2026-09-14 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4xZAuJGN0g) ## Main Thesis Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and have dramatically increased expectations for a Fed rate hike this week, putting pressure on equities and precious metals. The market is in a choppy, sideways 'kangaroo' state, waiting for the pivotal FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with key options levels acting as near-term support. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. US Oil (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout US Oil is described as 'flying' and is up 2.9%, getting close to new highs. Atkinson notes that futures for May, March, and February of next year are showing 'all-time kind of breakouts', suggesting a 'higher for longer' theme is staying in. ### 2. Brent Oil (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Brent oil is up 3.78% and approaching 4%, showing large moves and strength across the oil complex. ### 3. US 2-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout **Historical Comparison:** not back to where we were in 2023 The US 2-year yield is breaking out to new highs for the current move, though it is not back to the highs seen in 2023. This is part of a worldwide trend of rising yields. ### 4. AU01 (Australian Yields) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 4.8 Atkinson points to Australian yields as part of a worldwide trend, noting the AU01 is at 4.8. ### 5. JP03 (Japanese 3-Month Bond Yield) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** spike He highlights a 'sneaky 20% spike in one day' on the Japanese 3-month bond yield, showing it accelerating upwards. ### 6. German Yields (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Mentioned as being up across the board, contributing to the theme of a market starting to get 'a little bit of runaway'. ### 7. British Yields (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Mentioned along with German and other global yields as being up across the board. ### 8. Industrials (XLI) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Atkinson notes there seems to be 'a little bit of weakness here in the industrials', which could show weakness under the hood. He also notes it tends to just match the S&P, which is why he's not a huge fan of the sector. ### 9. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** at the same price as we were in 2024 He points out that consumer discretionary is at the same price it was in 2024, which doesn't show a story of strength. ### 10. Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary (RSPD) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** at 2024 levels Using the equal-weighted version, he shows it's at 2024 levels, suggesting the consumer is 'not as strong maybe as people would suspect underneath the hood'. ### 11. US 500 (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 7500 put support, 7750 positive gamma, 7900 net expiration The S&P 500 has been weak on small time frames, in a sequence of lower lows and lower highs, which is short-term weakness. Above the daily timeframe, it's still fine. Key options levels for the week are 7500 (put support), 7750 (first positive gamma), and 7900 (net expiration). ### 12. Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH The equal-weighted market is falling off, which indicates that the underlying breadth of the market is declining. ### 13. New York Stock Exchange Composite (NYSE) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown and retest The NYSE Composite closed below a key trend line last week and is now retesting it from the bottom. This is described as a 'problem zone'. A rejection here would confirm weakness and could lead to more volatility. ### 14. Cues (Nasdaq) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 700 put zone, 730 call zone The Nasdaq is the worst-performing sector today, led by semiconductors. It is approaching its key put support zone around 700. The call zone is at 730. ### 15. Semiconductors (SMH) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** kangaroo market Semiconductors are down significantly today. Atkinson notes this is expected behavior after the sector fell 20% into a technical bear market. He describes the current price action as a 'kangaroo market' that is 'up down up down and all around'. ### 16. Software (IGV) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Software is a 'slight improver' and the best performer of the day other than oil. It is still in a structure of higher highs and higher lows. The strength is possibly linked to AI news over the weekend. ### 17. Nvidia to Semiconductors Ratio (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** double top Used as an example of cross-analysis. The ratio showed a double top, after which Nvidia underperformed the semiconductor sector until it hit a demand zone. This illustrates the concept of relative performance. ### 18. Gold (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** head and shoulders Gold has a 'horror show little evil head and shoulders concept' on its chart. It is currently sitting on a small demand/support level. A break lower could be nasty. It's at a critical point. ### 19. Silver (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Silver is at a corresponding 'similar little demand' zone to gold. Atkinson notes it's a critical point for the metal and he wouldn't want to see it much lower. ### 20. Copper (daily, weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH Copper is pressing its low after taking out a high, which coincided with it trending on social media. It has a 'horrible candle' and is at a 'super critical level' which he identifies as a daily/weekly 20 mean reversion point. ### 21. Costco (COST) (monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** shooting star / pin bar / rejection candle The monthly chart shows a 'nasty candle' (shooting star/rejection) after taking a high, which looks like the copper chart. He questions if it's in a topping-style distribution pattern. The stock has been trading in the same range for two years, making the bias neutral from a TA perspective. ### 22. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 17.8 The VIX is up at 17.8, but Atkinson states this is 'absolutely not' high. The volatility of the VIX is also not high. ### 23. High Yield Junk Bonds (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** lower than this in 25 While high yield junk bonds are going down, he says it's not the full story. He notes that rates are higher now than in 2025 when junk bonds were lower, suggesting that if there were real risk, they should be much lower. He concludes there is 'no risk here'. ### 24. Carvana (CVNA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He is watching Carvana very closely at a key level 'just in case' things go bad. ### 25. Ubiquiti (UI) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** rejection candle The stock had a massive fall after an earnings result. However, last week showed a 'huge rejection' candle where it took a low and then rallied up on big volume. He describes it as 'improving' but is waiting to see if it can get above a key level. ### 26. US Dollar / Yen (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The pair is not moving much and remains close to a support level. ### 27. Kospi (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** kangaroo market The South Korean index has resistance holding up and is described as being in a 'kangaroo market'. ### 28. US Dollar / Korean Won (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Described as a 'liquidation fest' and is 'down big time'. ### 29. Alibaba (BABA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 319 (past high) He notes that Alibaba was once a 'poster child' that hit 319. Now, it's trading 'really cheap' on a relative basis, with its multiple having compressed significantly. ### 30. Bitcoin (BTC) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** pullback On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is holding up. It's in a 'pullback in time'. The market has stayed resilient and remained in a trapped level, resetting indicators. It's holding up a lot better than other assets. ### 31. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Mentioned as one of the other things that is up for the day, along with oil and software. ### 32. Healthcare (XLV) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH He notes there is 'certainly a weakness here in healthcare'. ### 33. Biotech (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The biotech sector was 'extremely good' recently but is now experiencing a bit of a pullback. ### 34. Solar and Clean Energy (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL These sectors are still down. He notes a big transaction occurred but there has been no real rally yet. He says it could be a 'theoretical buy' but requires patience to see confirmation. ### 35. Energy (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The energy sector was improving and has continued to do so again today. ### 36. Metals (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Metals are 'taking a bit of a bath' and have been stuck in the middle of a range. ### 37. Consumer Staples (XLP) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH He states that XLP 'doesn't look too good'. ### 38. Utilities (XLU) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** trapped The utilities sector is described as being 'trapped'. ### 39. Sony (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Wyckoff bottom He suggests the chart could almost be called 'some type of Wyckoff bottom', noting big volumes at the lows, a recent breach, and a close above resistance. ### 40. Solana (SOL) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH As an example of a crypto coin that is up, he notes Solana has closed above a higher high and has held there since, though it's currently in a sideways market. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis Atkinson describes the current macro regime as an 'inflationary boom' quadrant, driven by high capex and AI spending. He highlights a 'kangaroo market' environment where many sectors are floating sideways, which is reflected in the declining market breadth shown by RSP and the NYSE Composite. Key intermarket relationships discussed include rising global yields putting pressure on gold and silver, and surging oil prices directly feeding into inflation fears and increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The market is in a holding pattern, waiting for the FOMC meeting and press conference on Wednesday, which will be the key catalyst. - A critical warning is issued for the key put support levels: 7500 on the US 500 and 700 on the Cues (Nasdaq). - If these put levels are lost, it could trigger negative gamma, which can create 'waterfalls' and a real market sell-off. - He is paying close attention to the chart of Copper, which is at a 'super critical' low, and the 'Bessant level' on treasuries. - He advises patience, stating that in a 'kangaroo market', doing nothing is often the best course of action and that forcing trades rarely ends well. ## All Instruments Mentioned US Oil, Diesel, Brent Oil, US 2-Year Yield, AU01, JP03, German Yields, British Yields, Industrials, XLI, Consumer Discretionary, XLY, RSPD, US 500, RSP, New York Stock Exchange, Cues, Semiconductors, SMH, Software, IGV, Nvidia, SPY, Gold, Silver, Copper, Costco, VIX, Treasuries, High Yield Junk Bonds, Triple C Bonds, Carvana, CVNA, UI, US Dollar / Yen, Kospi, US Dollar / Korean Won, Alibaba, BABA, Bitcoin, BTC, Ethereum, ETH, Healthcare, XLV, Biotech, Solar, Clean Energy, Energy, Metals, XLP, XLU, Sony, CrowdStrike, CRWD, BUG, Solana, SOL --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-14 20:01:08*