# We Usually See This During Market Crashes... **Date:** 2026-09-17 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHNlM40sseQ) ## Main Thesis Despite a market crash signal where less than 31% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average, major indices like the S&P and Nasdaq have bounced off key put support levels following the Fed's 25 basis point hike. The market remains bifurcated, with weak breadth but resilient large-cap tech, while the Fed's dot plot signals a 'higher for longer' rate environment with persistent inflation risks from commodities like oil and diesel. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. S&P 500 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Rejection/rebound from support **Key Levels:** 7500 support, 7600 resistance **Historical Comparison:** The current market is most closely correlated to the 1970s market. Atkinson notes that less than 31% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, a signal usually seen in a market crash. However, the index sold off to a major net expiration put call support zone around 7500 following the FOMC press conference and then rallied. The futures market was trading back at 7600. He notes that if the market can hold these levels and make a higher high, it would be a rebound, despite the underlying weakness in breadth. ### 2. Nasdaq (Qs) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Rebound from support **Key Levels:** 700 support, 720 resistance, 730 plus target Similar to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq hit a key net expiration put wall support at 700, which also coincided with the weekly 20 moving average, and rebounded sharply. Atkinson notes that resistances on the net expirations came down to 720 and that he would want to see a move to 730 plus. ### 3. US Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 105 resistance, 106 resistance Oil reached a critical resistance level at 105-106, which was the first level of supply. This coincided with Brent crude and other energy markets also hitting key levels, suggesting a potential pause or reversal from this point. ### 4. Homebuilders ETF (ITB) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** levels of support Atkinson is watching the homebuilders ETF, which is back down at levels of support. He notes that the largest transaction ever recorded on ITB just occurred at these levels. He is watching to see if it holds or breaks down, as weakness here would be a telling sign about the real economy, especially in light of rising interest rates. ### 5. Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A number one (largest) transaction was recorded in BUG near the recent highs. Cybersecurity and software have been the best performing sectors. However, Atkinson notes there has been no real change in price since the large transaction occurred. ### 6. Bitcoin (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Potential short squeeze setup **Key Levels:** 45 call resistance Bitcoin is currently in what Atkinson calls a 'pit'. It has taken out the levels where most people would have their stop losses. Flows have been negative recently. However, he notes that if it starts rallying from here, especially with positive ETF flows, it could trigger a short squeeze above the recent rejection wicks. The call resistance is noted at 45. ### 7. Financials Sector (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Weakening The financials sector weakened following the interest rate hike, which Atkinson finds unusual as financials generally like rate hikes. He interprets this as a sign that the market is starting to see real risks and that people are struggling. A chart of financials vs. SPY shows supply is being pressured down. ### 8. Treasuries (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Declining market **Key Levels:** Bessant level Treasuries are in a declining market and have broken below the 'Bessant level' where there was a prior attempt to support them. Atkinson warns that intervention could happen at any time to support the market. ### 9. US 10-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 5% read The 10-year yield is at a 5% 'kind of read' but didn't really go any higher over the last session, despite a lot of social media attention. ### 10. Japanese 2-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Accelerating higher Japanese yields are described as 'getting a little bit out of control' and accelerating. This is putting continuous pressure on the carry trade and treasuries, and could become a problem 'out of nowhere'. ### 11. USD/JPY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Atkinson is watching USD/JPY for technical signs of stress related to rising Japanese yields. It is currently still above key levels, and he has an alert set below the current price which would signal 'the fear of the unknown'. ### 12. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 14 low, 17.72 current, 20 concern level The VIX is at 17.72. While it's off the lows of 14 and starting to come back up, Atkinson is not concerned until it gets above 20. ### 13. Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (RSP) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Falling off a cliff The RSP is 'continuously falling off a cliff', which shows that market breadth is 'really bad'. ### 14. Magnificent 7 vs SPY (MAGS vs SPY) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Outperformance This ratio is 'doing a lot better' than the broader market. Atkinson states that as long as this holds up, the market is 'probably okay'. ### 15. NYSE Advance-Decline Line (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Weakening The advance-decline line 'continues on down and it continues to weaken across the board', confirming the poor market breadth. ### 16. Copper (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Pin bar **Key Levels:** 20 moving average support Dr. Copper managed to hold its 20 moving average on the weekly chart, forming what looks like a pin bar. Atkinson sees this as a 'really good sign' for the economy, AI capex spend, and general building activity. ### 17. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** secret demand level Gold's recent action has been 'pretty terrible', with every rally being rejected. It is currently holding a 'level of secret demand' but has a critical resistance coming up that it needs to break through. ### 18. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 6530 resistance, 68 resistance Similar to gold, silver is struggling. It fell on the Fed comments but recovered slightly. It remains underneath two critical resistance levels at 6530 and 68. ### 19. Semiconductors (SMH/SOXX) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Kangaroo market / Range-bound Atkinson states there is 'nothing going on' with semiconductors. The sector is trapped within a zone, behaving as a 'kangaroo market' (range-bound), which is what he had expected. ### 20. Nvidia (NVDA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Nvidia is 'barely holding on' and has not closed at a new all-time high, but it is holding up through recent sessions. ### 21. Diesel (Crack Spread) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Uptrend The price of diesel is 'out of control' and 'continuously moving up'. This is a sign that inflation and real supply constraints are present in the economy. ### 22. Carvana (CVNA) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Potential head and shoulders Atkinson is watching Carvana as a proxy for auto delinquencies. He questions if a head and shoulders pattern could be forming as the stock has weakened recently. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The primary regime discussed is 'higher for longer' interest rates from the Federal Reserve, as indicated by their latest dot plot. This is creating a disconnect between the AI-driven stock market and the real economy, which is showing signs of stress in areas like housing affordability. There is also a focus on rising commodity prices (oil, diesel) potentially keeping inflation elevated, which could force the Fed's hand. Intermarket analysis includes the pressure that accelerating Japanese yields are putting on the carry trade and global bond markets. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Expect another interest rate hike this year, as the Fed doesn't usually start a hiking cycle and then stop after one hike. - The back end of September and October are seasonally weak periods for the market, especially in midterm election years. - Watch for signs of market stress in high-yield credit default swaps. - Weakness in the homebuilders ETF (ITB) would be a significant warning sign for the real economy. - The success or failure of OpenAI's upcoming funding round at a $1.2-$1.5 trillion valuation will be a key indicator of sentiment in the AI space. ## All Instruments Mentioned S&P 500, Nasdaq, Oil, ITB, BUG, Bitcoin, Energy Sector, Financials Sector, Treasuries, US 10-Year Yield, US 30-Year Yield, UK 2-Year Yield, Japanese 2-Year Yield, USD/JPY, VIX, RSP, MAGS vs SPY, NYSE Advance-Decline Line, Copper, Gold, Silver, Semiconductors, Nvidia, Diesel (Crack Spread), Carvana --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-22 23:05:11*