# The 2nd Largest SPY Trade Ever... **Date:** 2026-09-20 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv8cTyydUGU) ## Main Thesis The market is at a critical juncture, highlighted by the second-largest SPY dark pool trade ever at a key resistance level, suggesting major institutional positioning. While underlying market breadth is extremely weak, a few large-cap tech stocks are holding up the indices, creating a potential for a tech-led rally even as rising diesel prices and geopolitical risks threaten the broader economy. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Oracle (ORCL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Michael Burry has come out against Oracle, suggesting big tech filings are hiding something and that it could be the next 'big short'. Atkinson also notes other reports that Oracle is having problems getting data centers built quickly enough, which could impact their ability to service their large debts. ### 2. USD/JPY (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** major support Atkinson highlights a chart showing a rapid shift in positioning from extremely short yen to extremely long yen. The price has reached a major support level, and the combination of extreme positioning and hitting this technical support caused a turnaround. He states this support is now a critical level to watch for bonds and central banks. ### 3. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** squeeze to resistance **Key Levels:** 80,000, 82,000 pivotal level Bitcoin saw a squeeze last week after a period he calls a 'pit'. It rallied strongly back to resistance, putting on 6% in a session. A large candle took out shorters, slicing through the 80,000 level. While it is now at resistance, the flows have turned positive. He identifies 82,000 as a potentially pivotal level for the coming week. ### 4. S&P 500 (SPX) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** bullish hammer **Key Levels:** 7750 resistance The S&P 500 formed a 'beautiful bullish hammer' last week after a big rejection from the weekly 20 moving average, a key level for Wall Street. Despite the strong candle, the index is still technically in a structure of lower lows and lower highs. He identifies 7750, the previous high, as a critical resistance zone. ### 5. SPY (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUS **Key Levels:** resistance high **Historical Comparison:** The largest cluster trade ever, which led to sideways action then a drop. The second largest transaction cluster ever was recorded on SPY. This massive trade occurred around a resistance high. Atkinson compares it to the #1 largest cluster, which preceded a period of sideways consolidation before the market eventually dropped, suggesting this could be a sign of distribution. ### 6. Apple (AAPL) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A large dark pool trade occurred on Apple at a critical point during the quarterly options expiration. It's unclear if it was a buy or sell. The market reacted positively to the release of the 'duo'. ### 7. Chevron (CVX) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The number one largest cluster trade ever for Chevron was recorded last week. This occurred just before oil prices began rising over the weekend due to geopolitical news. ### 8. Copper (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** wick rejection **Key Levels:** weekly 20 moving average support Dr. Copper rallied 'bonkers' again, with a huge wick rejection off the weekly 20 moving average. Atkinson sees this as a positive signal for the bulls, as it shows strength and demand for the industrial metal. ### 9. Home Builders (ITB) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** 87 support One of the largest transactions was recorded on ITB last week. Since then, the ETF has weakened and is now pressuring the 87 support level. This is happening as large builders are shifting to building cheaper homes due to affordability issues. ### 10. Oil and Gas (XOP) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL XOP also saw some big trades last week. It is currently hitting key levels. ### 11. Carvana (CVNA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** support Atkinson is watching Carvana as a potential indicator for delinquencies. The stock is getting closer to putting pressure on a support level. ### 12. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 14.82 The VIX is back down at 14.82, indicating that volatility remains quite suppressed for this time of year, especially leading into midterm elections. ### 13. KOSPI (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** resistance high The South Korean market (KOSPI) is showing multiple wicks at a resistance high and looks very similar to the chart of semiconductors, suggesting a potential topping or rejection. ### 14. Semiconductors (Sector) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** island reversal Semiconductors have the possibility of forming a little island reversal. A large transaction came through, and so far, the reaction has been more bullish, which is a good sign for the broader tech sector. ### 15. Tech Sector (XLK) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The tech sector chart is showing the potential for new highs. ### 16. New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH This index is used to illustrate the market's low breadth, with more stocks declining than advancing. The only thing holding the market up are the large-cap tech stocks. ### 17. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** head and shoulders (potential) **Key Levels:** neckline demand Gold managed to close with its first signs of life. Despite a potential head and shoulders pattern that many were watching, it held the 'neckline demand' area, showing resilience. ### 18. Silver (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 68 resistance Similar to gold, silver held a key demand level. It then 'pumped up' as it's also considered a usable industrial metal. Atkinson notes that 68 is a critical resistance zone for it to overcome. ### 19. US Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** resistance US Oil hit resistance last week and sold off, but it has recovered a little bit over the weekend. The power of technical analysis was shown at the resistance level. ### 20. UK Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL UK Oil has also moved up a little bit over the weekend. ### 21. Diesel (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Diesel prices are 'rocketing'. Atkinson measures the move from April to the present as a 173% increase, highlighting the severe inflationary pressure this puts on the economy. ### 22. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 20 moving average support, 730 resistance The QQQ bounced off the 20 moving average, which is a positive sign. However, it is still in a lower high structure, so it needs to make a higher high to continue the rally. He would not be surprised if 730 becomes the key resistance level. ### 23. Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** gamma squeeze **Key Levels:** 46.50 resistance, 50 net expiration Used as a proxy for Bitcoin, IBIT has not yet taken out the high of 46.50. The recent squeeze has pushed the net expiration level out to 50 and is starting to put on a gamma squeeze. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The analysis centers on a 'K-shaped' economy under pressure from significant inflation, particularly in diesel prices (up 173% since April). This contrasts with a stock market exhibiting extremely poor breadth, where a handful of large-cap tech stocks are holding up the major indices in a 'kangaroo' market. Atkinson draws a historical comparison to 2021, where a similar period of weak breadth was resolved by a powerful tech-led rally. He also highlights the AI innovation cycle, comparing it to past cycles like rail and the internet, while noting that the bond market is 'starting to sweat.' ## Key Calls & Predictions - The second largest SPY dark pool trade ever at a resistance high is a major warning of potential distribution or a significant market turn. - The support level on USD/JPY is a critical level to watch for the direction of bonds and central banks. - The weekly 20 moving average is a critical indicator that 'Wall Street tends to like' and should be on every trader's chart. - Upcoming earnings from banks and airlines will be very important for gauging consumer health and debt creation. - The rocketing diesel price 'has to stop soon' or it will cause brutal, widespread economic pain. - The market is at levels of weak breadth that would normally correspond to a 7-8% pullback, but large-cap tech is masking the underlying weakness. - The core trading advice is: 'Patience, react, don't predict.' ## All Instruments Mentioned SPY, Diesel, Bitcoin, Oracle, USD/JPY, Apple (AAPL), Chevron (CVX), US Margin Debt, Copper, Home Builders (ITB), Oil and Gas (XOP), Software (sector), Healthcare (sector), Biotech (sector), Tech (sector), Semiconductors (sector), Carvana (CVNA), VIX, KOSPI, Tech Sector (XLK), Magnificent Seven, MAGS vs SPY, New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYA), Gold, Silver, US Oil, UK Oil, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 500 (SPX), Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-22 23:02:57*