# Wall Streets Biggest Bear, IS BACK...
**Date:** 2026-09-23  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViOmCZlRR88)

## Main Thesis
Despite bearish sentiment, Michael Burry's new shorts, and seasonal headwinds, markets are rallying, led by tech due to AI hype and positive gamma dynamics. However, underlying weakness in financials and the bond market warrants caution.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Russell 2000 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** underperformer, pullback
**Historical Comparison:** A COT report chart shows extreme bearishness from 'smart money,' which can be a contrarian bullish signal.

The Russell 2000 has been underperforming recently. A chart from i3 Invest shows that 'smart money' positioning is extremely bearish, which can often precede a bullish move. Atkinson later notes that while the chart looks 'crappy,' it is still holding some of its higher time frames, and its performance is critical for overall market health.

### 2. Bonds / Treasuries (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** Investor allocations to bonds are at lows previously seen during crisis periods. Atkinson also notes the unprecedented 50% face value loss in treasuries since 2019 without a corresponding market crash.

Atkinson discusses the extreme negative sentiment towards bonds, with investor allocations at historic lows typical of crisis periods. He finds it interesting that despite high yields, people are avoiding them. He later notes treasuries have 'stabilized around the Besant levels'.

### 3. Bitcoin (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs higher lows
**Key Levels:** 89 to 90k yet zone
**Historical Comparison:** A Glassnode chart shows MVRV momentum turning positive, similar to moves in 2019 and 2023, suggesting a repeat of previous cycle patterns.

Citing Glassnode data, Atkinson notes that MVRV momentum is turning positive, which is encouraging for bulls and similar to previous cycles. The price action is showing higher highs and higher lows after a positive gamma squeeze. He identifies a potential equilibrium zone around 89k-90k but warns against 'crazy targets' as bullish sentiment grows.

### 4. Altcoins (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Contrasting with Bitcoin, a Glassnode chart of the median 500 altcoins shows that less than 25% of positions are in profit. This illustrates that as the market matures, the 'blue chips' like Bitcoin tend to lead while the rest underperform.

### 5. Staples vs S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** continuing to decline

The ratio of staples to the S&P 500 continues to decline, which Atkinson interprets as a bullish sign for the overall market. It shows a lack of sustained defensive positioning from Wall Street. He states, 'If staples start to outperform the market, then we can be scared.'

### 6. Gold Miners (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH

Atkinson highlights a chart from Isauria Capital showing that gold miners are net buying back their own stock. He interprets this as a bullish signal, suggesting the companies believe their shares are cheap.

### 7. US Oil (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** topped out, freight train towards the downside

Oil topped out at key levels, in cross-correlation with Brent, after the market front-ran the news with a large ETF transaction in mid-September. It has since pulled back sharply, described as a 'freight train towards the downside.' Atkinson is now waiting for a new structure to form and suspects the longer-term bull move may not be over.

### 8. Semiconductors (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** little weird island reversal
**Key Levels:** testing this resistance

Semiconductors have formed a 'weird island reversal' off a previous support and are now testing resistance. Atkinson sees this sector as a key leader, stating that if it can 'unleash again,' it could really get the market started.

### 9. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** making a new high
**Key Levels:** 7,800 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** The current market is correlated to a 1978-79 analog, which, if it continues to play out, is where a 'disaster could happen.'

The S&P 500 is making new highs and is currently tracking a 1978-79 historical analog, which could point to future trouble. In the near term, it is approaching the 7,800 level, where a large concentration of call options acts as a potential resistance. A break above this level could trigger a squeeze.

### 10. S&P 500 Breadth (stocks > 50-day MA) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** falling, bad breadth
**Key Levels:** underneath 30

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average fell to just under 30%, indicating poor market breadth. However, Atkinson notes that as long as tech is performing well, the overall market can hold up.

### 11. Financials (XLF, KBE, KRE) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** not that strong, under pressure

Financials are showing weakness and are under pressure. Atkinson warns that if banks continue to fall while the broader market rallies, it is a significant warning sign that could lead to trouble in the bond market.

### 12. Technology Sector (XLK) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rallying, strong price action
**Key Levels:** approaching those all-time highs

The technology sector ETF, XLK, is showing strong price action and is approaching its all-time highs. Atkinson sees no real signs of weakness in this market leader at the moment.

### 13. MAGS (small time frames)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from a dull market
**Key Levels:** resistance when compared to the spy

The MAGS mega-cap tech basket was in a 'dull market' on small time frames before breaking out. This reinforces Atkinson's rule to 'never short a dull market,' as they tend to resolve with a sharp move higher.

### 14. New York Stock Exchange (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering, stabilized

The NYSE Composite index is hovering and has stabilized, along with its advance-decline line.

### 15. Home Builders (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** holding the support

Atkinson is watching home builders as a key indicator for the economy. The sector is currently holding a support level.

### 16. Carvana (CVNA) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** starting to drop

Carvana's stock is starting to drop, which Atkinson is monitoring as a potential sign of weakness in the consumer and overall debt markets.

### 17. Copper (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** made a new all-time high
**Key Levels:** held that 20 weekly moving average

Copper has made a new all-time high and has held its 20-weekly moving average. Its price action has been 'dull,' which he sees as a sign of a healthy, continuing trend.

### 18. Gold (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding that trendline to the downside

Gold has stabilized but continues to hold a downward trendline, failing to break through a key resistance level.

### 19. Silver (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** flag

Silver is at a resistance point and is potentially forming a flag pattern. Atkinson notes its dual nature as a precious and industrial metal means it could follow copper.

### 20. Crack Spread (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** continues to be kind of a high price

The crack spread remains at a high price, which means refining margins are elevated. This could eventually flow on to the rest of the economy as an inflationary pressure.

### 21. Qs (QQQ) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 750

The QQQ entered positive gamma and has continued to push higher, testing a resistance high. The majority of call options have moved to the 750 strike, which could become a target for another gamma-fueled move.

### 22. US 500 (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7750

The US 500 (S&P 500 CFD) has rallied above 7750 and continues to make higher highs and higher lows, confirming the bullish trend.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The current market regime is characterized by a tech-led, risk-on rally driven by an AI CapEx spending cycle and positive gamma dynamics in the major indices. This is supported by intermarket signals like the underperformance of defensive staples. However, there are significant underlying risks, with the bond market showing 'shuddering' and financials exhibiting weakness, which could signal future trouble. A historical analog to the 1978-79 market is presented as a potential path that could end poorly.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Michael Burry is now at 'full size' shorting Micron, Nubia's, semiconductor ETFs, and Palantir.
- A key warning sign would be if defensive sectors like staples start to outperform the broader market.
- The market is shrugging off concerns for now, but the bond market is showing signs of stress ('shuddering').
- Weakness in financials (banks) is a critical story to watch; if they continue to fall while the market rallies, it's a major red flag for bonds.
- A break above 7,800 in the SPX could trigger a gamma squeeze higher.
- The rule 'never short a dull market' was reinforced by the breakout in mega-cap tech (MAGS).

## All Instruments Mentioned
Micron, Nubia's, Semiconductor ETFs, Palantir, Meta, Oil, Crypto, SPX, NDX, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Russell 2000, Bonds, Treasuries, Bitcoin, Altcoins, Staples, S&P 500, Gold Miners, Gold, Silver, Zop, Home Builders, Semiconductors, KBE, XLF, KRE, Cosby futures, XLK, MAGS, New York Stock Exchange, Carvana, CVNA, Copper, Brent, US Oil, Crack Spread, Qs, QQQ, US 500, Transportations

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-09-25 23:01:11*