# Are Private Equity Markets Failing? Sp500, Nasdaq Analysis **Date:** 2026-09-24 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff3sBqNaqJ8) ## Main Thesis The market is bifurcated, with resilient tech holding up the major indices while underlying weakness is evident in consumer stocks, private equity, and the bond market. This creates a fragile, 'kangaroo market' environment where sector and stock selection are critical, and significant risks are building beneath the surface. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Consumer Discretionary / Cyclicals (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson highlights that consumer discretionary and cyclical stocks are starting to struggle, indicating weakness in the American consumer, which represents one-third of the US economy in the current K-wave cycle. He uses McDonald's and Nike as prime examples of this trend. ### 2. McDonald's (MCD) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** Famously held up during the Global Financial Crisis, but is now falling. The stock is described as falling to levels not seen in many years and has recently taken out a low before finding a bit of a bounce at a support line. Atkinson notes its 31% fall from grace is significant, especially for a stock that was defensive during the GFC. ### 3. Nike (NKE) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Lower lows and lower highs Atkinson states that Nike is 'absolutely falling off a cliff, continuously making lower lows and lower highs' and dropping to unexpected levels. ### 4. Private Equity (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson points to significant stress in private equity, citing reports that Apollo Global has limited withdrawals for the third consecutive quarter and Morgan Stanley is also capping its credit fund. He notes that after a 'dead cat bounce' three months ago, things are now changing and private equity is 'falling off a cliff'. ### 5. Bond Allocations (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** Similar low allocation levels in the past have preceded a late-cycle bust. Citing a chart from Topdown Charts, Atkinson notes that investor allocations to bonds are very low. He compares this to past periods where such low allocations occurred just before a late-cycle bust, suggesting something might be 'afoot' in the next 6-24 months. ### 6. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Semiconductors, along with tech and communications, have been one of the three strongest sectors month-to-date. Atkinson notes that tech generally leads the market out of periods of bad breadth, and this sector remains a key area of strength. ### 7. Market Breadth (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Market breadth is described as 'in the toilet,' with less than 30% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and around 21% above their 20-day. However, Atkinson views this not just as a panic signal but as a 'giant oscillator' that could present an opportunity, especially since tech is holding up despite the weakness. ### 8. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Breakout **Key Levels:** 93-94K resistance Bitcoin has been strong, executing a breakout with real ETF flow behind it. Atkinson notes that 60-70% of holders are back in profit, which may lead to some selling. He observes classic retail behavior of panic selling the lows and closing at breakeven on the rally. The chart is making higher highs and higher lows and is not yet at its key resistance area around 93-94k. ### 9. RSP/SPY Ratio (Equal-Weight S&P 500 vs S&P 500) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Historical Comparison:** Previous times the ratio was this low, the market was in a period of kangaroo consolidation or distribution. This ratio is 'in the dirt,' indicating significant underperformance of the average stock compared to the cap-weighted index. Atkinson suggests this shows it's a stock and sector selection market and that the S&P 500 could remain 'all over the place' while the ratio is at these levels. ### 10. US Treasuries (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Historical Comparison:** Dropping to levels not seen since 2004. Treasuries are dropping to 2004 levels, causing panic. Atkinson believes this is due to rising yields, not solvency risk, and expects the Treasury will eventually 'blink,' creating a massive opportunity. For now, the price is under pressure. ### 11. 10-Year US Treasury Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Higher highs and higher lows **Key Levels:** 5.11 The 10-year yield is at 5.11% and continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows. Atkinson states one cannot say this is the end for yields, indicating the upward trend remains intact. ### 12. 30-Year US Treasury Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The 30-year yield is approaching the 'fear of the unknown.' Atkinson notes that traditionally when this happens, it leads to downside volatility in the stock market. ### 13. Junk Bonds (High Yield) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH High yield junk bonds have dropped again. However, Atkinson qualifies this by saying he is not yet seeing an 'extreme level of risk' and that the bonds are not 'freaking out' in a major way, though it is a concern. ### 14. Regional Banks (KRE) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson points out that regional banks are 'falling off,' a weakness he had noted in his newsletter a month and a half or two months prior. ### 15. Carvana (CVNA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Head and shoulders He is watching a 'hideous looking head and shoulders' pattern on Carvana. He questions if a breakdown from this pattern could signal the 'breaking of the market system,' suggesting it's a key tell to watch. ### 16. Tech / Magnificent 7 (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Tech is described as the 'backbone of what has been the strength in markets.' The Magnificent 7 is holding above its closure for the week, and as long as this most important sector holds up, it provides support for the market. ### 17. Copper (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Dr. Copper is 'kind of floating through,' which Atkinson interprets as a sign of continued capex spending, aligning with the strength in tech. ### 18. Gold (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** Basing pattern (potential) **Key Levels:** 4400 resistance, 3900 support Gold is at a key support level. Atkinson would like to see it hold here. A fall below could lead to pressure down to 3900, while a move back above the 4400 area could form a 'nice little basing pattern' for a move higher. ### 19. Silver (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Silver is holding up better than gold, which Atkinson attributes to its correlation with copper. However, there has been no breakout in the last 24 hours. ### 20. US Oil (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Oil hit resistance and has been technical. Atkinson describes the price action as a market that rallied ahead of news, which then became reality, leading to a pullback. ### 21. Diesel (None) **Bias:** BULLISH Diesel remains 'very resilient, very strong,' which is an inflationary signal that pressures consumer-facing companies like McDonald's. ### 22. Nasdaq 100 (Cues) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL The Nasdaq is at the resistance of the recent highs, so a pullback would not be surprising. Atkinson suggests a VWAP from the recent low could act as a potential bounce area on a pullback. ### 23. S&P 500 (US 500) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 7800 resistance, 7625 support, 7500 support The S&P 500 stalled as it ran into call resistance, with options gamma pinning it near 7800. The market is at a critical zone, and Atkinson would like to see it hold around the current area. Options data shows put support at 7625 and 7500. ### 24. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Rallying Described as 'still kind of dull and rallying up,' suggesting a slow but positive trend. ### 25. Solana (SOL) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** Closed new highs Solana has closed new highs. Atkinson suggests that after a squeeze, it's not unusual to see profit-taking, but the structure favors pullbacks into further rallies. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a 'kangaroo' or distributive regime, with characteristics similar to the 1970s. It's a 'stock selection sector selection market,' evidenced by rapid rotations between sectors like biotech, gold, energy, and now back to tech over just a few months. A key macro theme is the 'K-wave' economy, where the struggling lower-end consumer is causing weakness in staples and discretionary stocks, while AI-driven capex spending buoys the tech sector. The rising bond yield environment is a major macro pressure point, impacting everything from private equity to regional banks and junk bonds. ## Key Calls & Predictions - There are growing problems in private equity, with major funds like Apollo and Morgan Stanley limiting withdrawals, which is a significant warning sign. - Bond yields are hitting levels not seen since 2004, creating pressure on the financial system and risk assets. - The market is in a 'kangaroo' phase, and October is historically the worst month of a midterm year, suggesting continued volatility. - Market health is poor (bad breadth), and the indices are being held up almost exclusively by tech. If tech leadership falters, the market is in 'trouble'. - Watch the 'hideous looking head and shoulders' pattern on Carvana (CVNA) as a potential canary in the coal mine for a broader market break. - Credit default swaps need to be monitored closely as rising rates put pressure on corporate debt. ## All Instruments Mentioned Private Equity, Bonds, Treasuries, Housing Market, Stocks, Commodities, Cryptos, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Cyclicals, McDonald's (MCD), Nike (NKE), Semiconductors, Tech, Communication, Software, Biotech, Healthcare, Gold, Silver, XLE (Energy), Diesel, Bitcoin (BTC), Altcoins, S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq (NDX/Cues), RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500), 10-Year Yield, 30-Year Yield, Junk Bonds, IWM, Banks, KRE (Regional Banks), Home Construction, Carvana (CVNA), Magnificent 7, Copper, XLP (Consumer Staples), XLU (Utilities), Oil, Brent, Domino's Pizza (DPZ), IBIT, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-10-05 23:09:18*