# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Markets Are Falling, Breadth Is Bad... Should We Really Worry? **Date:** 2026-09-28 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll_XP2k2-P4) ## Main Thesis Despite rising yields and extremely poor market breadth, the overall market is being held up by a powerful rally in tech and AI-related stocks, which now constitute 41% of the S&P 500. Until this tech leadership breaks, the market trend remains higher highs and higher lows, as price action is king and is not yet confirming the bearish signals from other indicators. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. Bitcoin (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** reversal from a 'beautiful pit' Atkinson notes Bitcoin is down 1.76% and is currently 'having a little bit of a sleep' after a recent sharp reversal from a low. He calls this reversal a 'beautiful pit' and an 'excellent case study' on psychology and price action, suggesting it was a significant technical event. ### 2. NASDAQ (QQQ) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** range-bound **Key Levels:** 730 puts, 750 calls The NASDAQ was down about 0.91%. Atkinson points to the options market for the QQQ's, noting a put wall around 730 and a call wall around 750. He states the market is trapped within this options range. ### 3. S&P 500 (SPX) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** range-bound **Key Levels:** 7,600 puts, 7,700 resistance, 7,775 resistance, 7,800 resistance The S&P was down about half a percent, trading at 7710. Atkinson highlights the options 'call wall' for the week at 7700, 7775, and 7800, with puts around 7600. He concludes the market is trapped in the middle of this range. ### 4. Oil (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** upward trend **Key Levels:** daily 50 moving average support Oil is up 3.44%, which he calls 'sneaky oil coming back'. He notes it hit the daily 50 moving average, saw a turn with a low and a higher high, and is now rallying. He believes it will remain in an upward trend and could put pressure on the stock market if it continues higher. ### 5. Gold (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** head and shoulders **Key Levels:** 3900 target Gold is making lower lows and is described as 'falling off a cliff'. Atkinson identifies a 'horror show head and shoulders' pattern and notes that price is trading underneath the neckline. A technical breakdown from this pattern could target 3900. He states the price action is 'a bit crap'. ### 6. Silver (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown risk **Key Levels:** 57 target Similar to gold, silver is making lower lows and is on its 'last line' of support. It failed to get through a supply level. He warns it could possibly go to 57 or make new lower lows if the current support breaks. It 'absolutely needs to turn right now'. ### 7. US 10-Year Yield (monthly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout **Key Levels:** 5% resistance, 5.5% resistance, 6.5% resistance Yields are 'running away'. Looking at a monthly chart, he notes historical resistance at 5% and 6.5%. He states that if yields get past 5.5%, there's not much stopping them before 6.5%, which would be 'very drastic'. ### 8. US 2-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 4.9% He points out that the 2-year yield is sitting at 4.9% as part of the broader trend of rising yields. ### 9. Treasuries (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown **Key Levels:** 78 Treasuries are getting 'absolutely smashed' due to rising yields. They are trading at 78, which he notes is at zones not seen since 2004, and have made a new low. ### 10. Copper (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** all-time high weekly close Dr. Copper just had its all-time weekly close high. Atkinson sees this as a positive sign for demand, AI build-out, and GDP growth, suggesting the economy is in an 'inflationary boom'. ### 11. UK 2-Year Yield (None) **Bias:** BULLISH He shows a chart of the UK 2-year yield to illustrate that rising yields are a global phenomenon, stating that people in the UK should 'get ready' for interest rate hikes. ### 12. Japanese 2-Year Yield (monthly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** extended rally **Key Levels:** 2% Looking at the monthly chart, he notes the Japanese 2-year yield is 'pretty extended' and is hitting the 'magical 2%' level. ### 13. High Yield Corporate Bonds (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He is watching high yield bonds as a key risk indicator. He states that if they spike to new higher highs, it would show a 'real market freak out in bonds' due to risk, not just interest rates. This has not happened yet. ### 14. Utilities (XLU) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** underperformance The performance of utilities has been 'shocking'. He notes that normally this defensive sector would pick up if Wall Street was turning defensive, but it's not, suggesting the market remains risk-on. ### 15. Staples (XLP) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** underperformance Similar to utilities, the performance of staples has been 'shocking'. Their weakness indicates the market is not rotating into defensive sectors. ### 16. US Dollar (DXY) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout potential **Key Levels:** 101.80 resistance, 104 target He identifies 101.80 as a key level to watch. If the dollar gets through it, it could push to 104, which would pressure gold and silver. He notes its strength has defied the expectations of most macro analysts. ### 17. VIX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 16 current level, 20 resistance The VIX is up 9% to 16, but he considers it 'pretty dead' and 'disappointing'. He notes that a VIX above 20 traditionally signals bears are in control, and it hasn't been properly above that level since March. ### 18. Oracle (ORCL) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** head and shoulders Oracle is down 2.7% and is described as a 'not a good looking stock' that looks 'pretty bad technically'. He sees a potential head and shoulders pattern and calls it a 'potential black swan' and the poster child of AI data center spend. ### 19. High Beta ETF (SPHB) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** rising trend Contradicting a comment, he looks at a high beta ETF and says it's 'generally rising up' and has been the 'poster child of this last run from semiconductors'. He states it does not look 'super negative'. ### 20. German DAX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He shows the DAX chart as an example of a non-US market, stating it's 'not really the epitome of great healthy market'. ### 21. Australian ASX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He shows the Australian market chart to illustrate that markets without a heavy tech weighting are not performing well. ### 22. UK FTSE 100 (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL He shows the FTSE chart, noting it is 'flat' with 'not much going on'. ### 23. McDonald's (MCD) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown **Historical Comparison:** Was the only stock in the Dow to not fall during the GFC. He says the stock shows the problems of the K-shaped economy. The chart is 'terrible', showing a 'big S level flying down'. It is down 31% from its highs. ### 24. Crack ETF (KRAK) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** daily 20 moving average support He notes a massive transaction, the largest ever recorded on this ETF, with huge volumes. The price is holding the daily 20 moving average support. ### 25. AMD (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** extended rally He acknowledges the stock had a great bullish setup from the low ('nice pit, new higher high'). However, it is now 15-20% higher and he suggests it might need a gap fill before it gets interesting again, implying it's extended. ### 26. Semiconductors (None) **Bias:** CAUTIOUS **Pattern:** blowoff top He describes the recent semiconductor rally as a potential 'blowoff top', which we are three months into. He is cautious because the 'backbone was lost' previously and other tech stocks, not just semis, have been leading the most recent push higher. ### 27. DRAM (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 618 fib resistance, 786 fib resistance In response to a question, he looks at a DRAM/semiconductor chart and notes it's making a 'slight higher high' and 'doesn't exactly look weak'. He is watching the 618 and 786 fib retracement levels from the prior pulldown as potential resistance. ### 28. Microsoft (MSFT) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** new high He points to Microsoft making a new high as evidence that this is 'not really what you would call a weakness market'. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis Atkinson describes the current market as a 'K-wave' or K-shaped environment, where a small segment (AI/tech) is booming while the rest of the economy stagnates. This explains the unusual weakness in defensive sectors like utilities and staples. He also suggests an 'inflationary boom' regime, evidenced by rising oil and a record weekly close in copper, driven by massive AI capex spending. He contrasts this period with the GFC, noting the key difference is the current lack of a broad-based 'freak out' in the bond market, with stress confined to the riskiest (Triple-C) debt. He also compares the current AI buildout to historical technological shifts like electricity in the 1920s and fiber optics in the 2000s. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The market is trapped within options ranges for the week: S&P 500 between 7600 and 7800, and QQQ between 730 and 750. - A break above 5.5% on the US 10-year yield could lead to a rapid move to 6.5%. - Gold and Silver are at critical support; a breakdown of their head and shoulders patterns would be very bearish. - The market's direction is almost entirely dependent on tech/AI stocks. As long as they hold up, the broader market will likely stay elevated. - Watch for a spike in high-yield bond spreads as a true signal of market fear, which has not occurred yet. - An Australian interest rate hike is expected tomorrow. ## All Instruments Mentioned Bitcoin, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Oil, Gold, Silver, US 10-Year Yield, US 2-Year Yield, Treasuries, Copper, Home Construction, Carvana (CVNA), UK 2-Year Yield, Australian Yields, Japanese 2-Year Yield, High Yield Corporate Bonds, MOVE Index, Utilities, Staples, SPCX, US Dollar (DXY), VIX, Oracle (ORCL), Muse (MUSE), High Beta ETF, German DAX, Australian ASX, UK FTSE 100, McDonald's (MCD), Crack ETF, AMD, Semiconductors, DRAM, Microsoft (MSFT), Crypto --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-10-05 23:07:15*