# Monday Live Stream US Market Open: Will Tech Be Able To Hold This Market Up? Sp500, BTC, Nasdaq!
**Date:** 2026-10-05  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBRZx4ZlgOs)

## Main Thesis
The market is exhibiting a major divergence where tech stocks are making new all-time highs, but the bond market is signaling significant risk and broader market breadth is very weak. The key question is whether this narrow tech leadership can continue to hold the market up against these considerable warning signs.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Bitcoin (BTC) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs, higher lows
**Key Levels:** 86,000 plus holding, 88k marker resistance, 90 93 94 highs
**Historical Comparison:** Mentions the 'four-ear cycle' theory and questions if this time is different.

Bitcoin is holding above 86,000 and has had extremely good flows. It saw a big rejection off the 88k marker. The structure is higher highs and higher lows, and it has been one of the few markets performing well recently, along with tech. Atkinson notes he prefers to see Bitcoin leading Ethereum, which it has been doing recently.

### 2. US 500 (SPX) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Historical Comparison:** Compares the current divergence with RSP to past periods, noting that while tech has led before, the broad market usually followed, which is not happening now.

Atkinson uses the S&P 500 to highlight the market's strange divergence. While the tech-heavy index is held up, the equal-weight version (RSP) is down, which is a rare and concerning dynamic. He notes that financials are also down, which historically has led to choppy, kangaroo-like markets.

### 3. NASDAQ (QQQ) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** alltime high
**Key Levels:** 755 760 for calls, 735 725 for puts

The Nasdaq (referred to as the Q's) hit an all-time high with a strong weekly close. Atkinson poses the central question of whether this is a real or false breakout, with a viewer poll split nearly 50/50. While acknowledging the many bearish underlying signals, he states his preference is to go with the trend until proven otherwise, as fighting it can be tough.

### 4. WTI Oil (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

WTI oil was noted as being weaker than UK Oil (Brent). It was down in the Asian session but had recovered some losses.

### 5. US Dollar (DXY) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 10180, 10380 to 104 supply

The US dollar has been slowly grinding out higher highs and higher lows. A closure above the 101.80 level would expose the supply zone around 103.80 to 104. Its strength is supported by money rotating back into the US.

### 6. EUR/USD (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 108 kind of zone

The Euro has weakened, contributing to the dollar's strength. It has come down to a version of support, and if that level doesn't hold, it could move down to the 1.08 zone. This would likely coincide with the DXY hitting its resistance.

### 7. French 10-Year Yield (FR10Y) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** aggressive rise
**Key Levels:** 4.9%

The French 10-year yield has risen aggressively to 4.9%, showing a strong demand for yield and putting pressure on the face value of these bonds. This was spurred by a large Japanese investment firm dumping French bonds.

### 8. German 10-Year Yield (DE10Y) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** slight decline

In contrast to French yields, German 10-year yields have seen a slight decline. This is part of a rotation where a major investor sold French bonds and bought German bonds.

### 9. US 10-Year Yield (US10Y) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

The US 10-year yield initially dipped on a weak jobs number but then immediately reversed and shot straight back up, shrugging off the bad economic data. This indicates the market's opinion remains focused on inflation or other risks.

### 10. UK Oil (Brent/CRK) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Big strong daily rejection
**Key Levels:** 103 kind of 80 resistance

UK Oil (Brent) is showing significant strength, with strong daily rejection candles. It looks stronger than WTI and is approaching a critical resistance level around 103.80. This strength is not consistent with a slowdown in inflation.

### 11. Energy Sector (XLE) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** decent rebound

The energy sector found a decent rebound on Friday's session, showing relative strength in the market, which aligns with the price action in oil.

### 12. MOVE Index (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spiking
**Historical Comparison:** Compares the current spike to previous ones that were synonymous with market sell-offs, such as during the tariffs and geopolitical events earlier in the year.

Atkinson highlights the MOVE index (bond market volatility) spiking significantly. He calls this unusual without a corresponding stock market sell-off and describes it as one of the best reads for risk. The bond market is signaling a problem that the stock market is currently ignoring.

### 13. Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening
**Historical Comparison:** Notes the current divergence from the SPX is 'quite strange' and 'pretty rare' historically.

RSP is down while tech-heavy indices are up, indicating very poor market breadth. Atkinson calls this a potential 'canary in the in the field' and notes that it has reached extreme oversold levels.

### 14. US Treasuries (TLT) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** outside of the Ballinger
**Historical Comparison:** Compares the current price action to the 2023 crash and the semiconductor capitulation, where markets moved aggressively outside their Bollinger bands.

Treasuries are in a 'very brutal sell' and are trading outside the Bollinger Bands. While this suggests an oversold condition, Atkinson warns that markets in this state can become even more aggressive and 'rip someone's head off' before reverting.

### 15. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 3900 zone, 4100, 4230, 4,300, 44

Atkinson calls gold 'dreaded' because the technicals look weak despite good underlying flows. The chart shows lower lows and lower highs and a head and shoulders pattern that targets the 3900 zone. It is currently holding in a put zone around 4100 and needs to get above 4300 and realistically 4400 to look strong.

### 16. Silver (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mini woff (Wyckoff)

Silver is showing a little bit of recovery. On the 4-hour chart, he notes a pattern that looks like a 'mini Wyckoff', but he is skeptical because it's not forming in the right zone.

### 17. Copper (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

He is watching copper and would like to see it continue to hold its current levels, but provides no further analysis.

### 18. Brazilian ETF (EWZ) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** New high

Prompted by a viewer, he looks at the Brazilian market ETF, which was up 12% in a single session and hit a new high. This was attributed to the election of a new, fiscally conservative government.

### 19. Nvidia (NVDA) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** all-time highs
**Key Levels:** 235 call resistance

Nvidia is a key market leader, trading at all-time highs. It is sitting right at a call resistance level of 235. Atkinson states that despite the bearish signals elsewhere, this chart does not look bearish.

### 20. Russell 2000 (US2K) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** pretty good demand zone

The Russell 2000 has sold off to a 'pretty good demand zone' which is also a heavily traded area. Like RSP, it's at extreme oversold levels, and the key question is whether the bounce is a dead cat bounce (DCB) or the start of a real recovery.

### 21. Home Construction (ITB) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

He is watching the home construction sector, which is very important for the US economy. He notes it has 'rallied' but is 'barely holding on'.

### 22. Carvana (CVNA) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 63

He is watching Carvana as a potential sign of problems in the market, questioning if it could be forming a head and shoulders top.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a highly unusual and divergent regime, which Atkinson calls possibly the 'weirdest' he has ever seen. There is a major conflict between the bond market and the stock market; bond volatility (MOVE Index) is spiking and yields are widening, signaling significant risk, while tech stocks are making new all-time highs. This is coupled with extremely poor market breadth, where the broader market (RSP, Russell 2000) and key sectors like financials are weak. The current environment appears to be a late-cycle phenomenon driven by a powerful but narrow narrative around AI and data centers, causing the market to ignore traditional warning signs.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The breakout in the Nasdaq to all-time highs is the market's pivotal point; its ability to hold will determine the next major move.
- The bond market, especially the spiking MOVE Index, is a major warning of impending volatility that the stock market is currently ignoring.
- The US Dollar trend remains up, with a potential move towards the 103.80-104 supply zone.
- Gold remains technically weak with a head and shoulders pattern targeting the 3900 zone unless it can reclaim key levels like 4300-4400.
- The market is being held up by a narrow group of tech stocks fueled by the AI/data center narrative; if that music stops, the underlying weakness and bond market warnings could lead to a correction.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Bitcoin, US 500, NASDAQ, WTI oil, DXY, EUR/USD, FR10Y, DE10Y, US10Y, UK Oil, CRK, XLE, MOVE Index, RSP, TLT, Semiconductors, SOXL, Kospi, XLK, Ethereum, Gold, Silver, Copper, EWZ, Nvidia, Russell 2000, US2K, IWM, ITB, Carvana, CVNA, cocoa, cotton, wheat, ZOP, MAGS, SPY, IBIT, XLU, Bloom Energy, Southern Cross Electrical, Nike

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-10-05 23:01:19*