# Wall Street Is Struggling With This… (SP500, Nasdaq, KOSPI) **Date:** 2026-10-14 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlcdyjMnYTI) ## Main Thesis The market is sending mixed signals as strong bank earnings are met with confusion and signs of a housing slowdown, creating a volatile environment. While the S&P 500 is broadening, key sectors like semiconductors are showing significant weakness, highlighting a divergent market ahead of a crucial CPI report. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. JP Morgan (JPM) (4-hour) **Bias:** BEARISH Atkinson highlights the confusing market reaction to JP Morgan's earnings. Despite being up 8% year-on-year, it was a miss. The stock dropped pre-market, rallied at the open, and then dropped again, creating a 'giant red candle' and a 6.88% move for the session. He notes this price action suggests the market 'didn't really like what we were seeing' and that the stock is in a 'correction style market'. ### 2. Carvana (CVNA) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** potential head and shoulders Referred to as 'Carvana watch', this stock is used as a proxy for the health of the lower-end consumer and potential delinquencies. Atkinson points out a potential head and shoulders pattern, questioning if consumer struggles with car payments are starting to catch up, which could signal a decline in the 'bottom end of the K-wave'. ### 3. KOSPI (daily, weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown below 200 DMA **Key Levels:** 200-day moving average resistance, weekly 50-moving average support **Historical Comparison:** Historical instances of breaking the 200 DMA have led to stagflation or 'horrific areas of market pullbacks'. Only 1 out of 25 times were markets bullish over the next 12 months in this scenario. The entire daily trading range fell below the 200-day moving average, a significant bearish signal according to Paul Tudor Jones's saying, 'Nothing good happens underneath the daily 200 moving average.' The market fell off a cliff and was halted due to volatility. The weekly 50-moving average is currently providing support. This weakness is seen as a problem in the hardware side of the market. ### 4. TSMC (TSM) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TSMC earnings are highlighted as 'the big one' coming on Thursday. The options market is pricing in a potential move of plus or minus 4.6%, which is considered huge given its market cap. ### 5. Gold (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Gold recently saw 'really bad daily sentiment' and is being 'hated again'. Its direction is tied to yields. Atkinson notes that while many think yields have peaked, the price of yields is still making higher highs and higher lows. For now, Gold is just sitting at the same level as the previous day with no changes. ### 6. SpaceX (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** resistance SpaceX hit a resistance level and is selling off a little. It is considered important due to its massive potential IPO valuation of $2.1 trillion, which could push the market around. ### 7. Qs vs Spy (QQQ/SPY ratio) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH The Qs are weakening relative to the Spy. This ratio chart shows that market broadening is happening, as the wider S&P 500 is performing better than the Nasdaq 100. ### 8. KRE (Regional Banks ETF) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Key Levels:** support The regional banks ETF showed a similar negative reaction to the bank earnings, ending down on the session. It is currently sitting right at a support level, and a break lower would be a sign of further weakness. ### 9. XLF to Spy (XLF/SPY ratio) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH This ratio is being watched to see if financials continue to weaken relative to the broader market. If it makes a lower low, it would be a 'warning signal'. ### 10. Semiconductors (Generic) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** rejection **Key Levels:** 75 fib resistance Semiconductors have fallen about 10% from the top. The sector rallied to about a '75 fib' level and has seen a rejection from there. This is considered a warning signal and a sign of problems on the hardware side of the market. ### 11. 20-year yield / Treasuries (TLT) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** reversion to the mean **Key Levels:** 76 base support, daily 20 moving average resistance Treasuries are seeing a spike up, having rallied off a '76 base'. The price is getting closer to the 'all-important daily 20' moving average, which is noted as a key level for reversions to the mean. ### 12. Energy (XLE) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The energy sector is 'absolutely flying still' and is a forgotten part of the market. Atkinson states we are in an 'inflation-based boom' which is leading to XLE being higher. ### 13. Future Oil (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Key Levels:** 77 for 2028 contract Longer-dated oil futures contracts are 'skyrocketing'. As an example, the 2028 contract is at $77. This price action is telling us that the market expects 'higher for longer oil prices', which could lead to problems in food and supply chains. ### 14. Crack Spread (CRAK) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH The oil refinery ETF 'just keep going up'. There are big transactions and massive volumes occurring at these high levels, indicating significant market interest. ### 15. IWM (Russell 2000) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** support The small-cap index is sitting at the exact same support level as before. The bank earnings did not encourage a rally. It is under pressure from the bond market, as higher interest payments are hurting 'zombie businesses' common in the small-cap space. ### 16. Silver (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs Silver dropped and is now 'just sitting around'. Atkinson does not think it has a particularly strong technical chart, as it is still making 'lower lows and lower highs for now'. ### 17. Dollar Index (DXY) (None) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** potential top The DXY showed its 'first sign of are we seeing a bit of a top?'. There has been a little bit of weakness in the last 24 hours. He is watching closely to see if it makes a lower low. The specific level mentioned, '1016', is ambiguous and likely a transcription error. ### 18. S&P 500 (SPY) (None) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** pullback in time The SPY is in a 'pullback in time' at its all-time highs. It does not look like a weakened market, as it is still generally making higher highs and higher lows. ### 19. Bitcoin (BTC) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Key Levels:** 87,000 plus resistance Bitcoin is holding onto a key volume node after a spike up. It has not made a higher high yet. The big level everyone is watching is 'up here at 87,000 plus'. Market flows have improved slightly. ### 20. Ethereum (ETH) (None) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** potential double bottom **Key Levels:** 2600 area support Ethereum's market has also improved a little bit. Key levels to watch are in the '2600 kind of area'. There is a potential for a 'little double bottom' to form off a big volume node. The chart looks very similar to Bitcoin's. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in an 'inflation-based boom' which is benefiting the energy sector (XLE). There is a divergence, or 'K-wave' dynamic, where the top end (Mag 7, AI capex) is strong, but the bottom end (proxied by Carvana) is showing signs of stress. A key theme is market broadening, where the S&P 500 ex-tech is starting to outperform, while leadership in semiconductors is faltering. This shift could be analogous to prior tech cycles like the 1920s and 1990s, not in valuation, but in the potential for overbuilding capacity (e.g., compute power). The market is forward-looking, pricing events 12-18 months in advance. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Weakness in semiconductors (KOSPI, SMH) is a critical warning sign for the hardware and capex cycle. - Watch for financials (XLF/SPY ratio, KRE) to make a lower low, which would be another bearish warning signal for the market. - The upcoming CPI report and TSMC earnings are major potential volatility events. - Long-dated oil futures are signaling 'higher for longer' oil prices, which poses a significant risk to the broader economy via food and supply chain inflation. - The market has become a 'stock picker's delight', with clear divergence between strong sectors like energy and weak ones like semiconductors and small caps. ## All Instruments Mentioned JP Morgan, S&P 500, Semiconductors, Oil, KOSPI, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Carvana, Qs, Spy, CORU, Nvidia, TSMC, Gold, Bitcoin, SpaceX, Apple, Magnificent Seven, Microsoft, S&P excluding IT and communication services, KRE, XLF, 20-year yield, Treasuries, Coca-Cola, Staples, Utilities, MOVE Index, BofA Option Adjusted Spread, XLE, UK oil, Future oil, Crack Spread, IWM, Triple-C grade junk bonds, Copper, Silver, SIVR, Dollar Index, IGV, IBIT, Ethereum --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-10-16 23:03:05*